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Mobility Is Key
Aspinall is not a revolutionary fighter. He doesn’t do anything that’s never been seen before. Instead, he does what has been proven to work. Straight punching, the jab, low kicks at range and ducking under looping punches for a takedown are all part and parcel of an Aspinall fight. We can be sure that’s what he will do against Tybura as well.
The thing that makes Aspinall so dangerous as a heavyweight is his straight punching. His bread-and-butter combination is the jab to right cross, which he will fire at lightning speed. The reason this works so well for him is because heavyweights really like to punch around their opponents’ guard with looping overhands. These big knockout blows take much longer to get to the point of contact. The adage goes, “the quickest path from point A to point B is a straight line,” and straight punching will beat looping punches nearly every time. Of course, there are times where coming over the top of the jab is quite effective, but Aspinall is so fast that most of the UFC’s heavyweights are not able to do it against him.
With Tybura being so wrestling-heavy, takedown defense and backing his opponent up are two points of focus for Aspinall in this fight. Being sound with his footwork will do the trick for Aspinall. Statistically speaking—statistics are not an everything but can provide some insight—if Aspinall can keep Tybura from getting a takedown, he will win this fight. In Tybura’s six losses in the UFC, four of those saw him fail to land a takedown. The two fights in which he got a takedown in and still lost were his UFC debut against Tim Johnson, and Fabricio Werdum who, as one of the greatest heavyweight grapplers of all time, likes getting taken down. Aspinall will either look to keep this fight on the feet, or wrestle only on his terms.
Defensively Sound
Since joining the UFC in 2020, we’ve seen massive growth from Aspinall. He came to the promotion already ready to compete with top talent, but he’s added tools over time to become even better. One such area has been defense. When Aspinall fought Andrei Arlovski in 2021, it was the biggest test of his career to date. A veteran of the game, Arlovski could provide a challenge that Aspinall hadn’t seen yet. At a moment in that fight, Aspinall got caught in an Arlovski blitz and backed straight up, hands down and chin high.
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As seen in the stills above, Aspinall left his chin on a platter and had he continued to do this in subsequent fights, someone would have punished him for it by now. Knowing this and always looking to improve, Aspinall worked on that defensive lapse, and in his very next fight seven months later against Sergey Spivak, he demonstrated significant improvement.
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In that fight with Spivak, we see (1) an advancing Aspinall. He will step in to throw the 1-2. (2) On the jab, he chambers the right cross and (3) follows up. Fortunately for Aspinall, he sees that Spivak is going to come over the top with a right overhand. He will lean back and out of the way of that blow, but our last frame (4) is the important part of this section. Notice where Aspinall has his hand as he exits. Aspinall expects a left to come back his way after the right overhand was thrown. Having his hand high and guarding his chin is exactly the type of improvement I like to see from Aspinall and hope to see more of that against Tybura who throws the exact same type of punches.
Offense, Offense and Better Offense
Aspinall is all about the offense. In his career, with a 12-3 record, he’s never seen a third round, much less a fifth. Of his 12 wins, eight have come by knockout and four by submission. Of his losses, one came from the knee injury, one from an illegal elbow on Aspinall’s part, and the first was due to a heel hook early on in his career. Simply put, it’s kill or be killed for Aspinall.
However, Aspinall has added new things to his arsenal in recent years. Since the Spivak fight, we’ve seen Aspinall switch stances and go from southpaw to orthodox. Against Spivak, he switched but didn’t quite like the feel of being a southpaw. Against Alexander Volkov, his next opponent, he put on some meaningful offense, although he still looked stiff. Against Tybura, I look for Aspinall to do more of this and improve on what he did against Volkov. The real concern is how well his mobility has recovered after the knee injury against Blaydes. If it’s better, look for Aspinall to bring out some slick tricks that can really cause some confusion for Tybura. That’s where the great comes into play: Alexander Volkanovski.
Just two weeks ago, Volkanovski showed us just how effective switching stances can be. He routinely steps back and lands a shifting hook that wobbles his foes. We saw that at UFC 290 against Yair Rodriguez. He and Aspinall utilize some similar weapons and this addition could be welcome. For example, the step back into orthodox led directly to the end of the fight.
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To start our exchange out (1) Volkanovski, in orthodox, starts things off with a step-up low kick. It’s a long weapon and keeps distance between he and Rodriguez. (2) The proper counter is a right cross as your opponent is on one leg. Rodriguez will throw this. The problem for him is that Volkanovski is also dialed in on this as he retracts the kick, he continues backwards into southpaw and (3) puts the lead left foot to the rear. This not only provides extra space for Volkanovski but also changes where the power shots come from, now the right. (4) Volkanovski, with his opponent overextended on a kick of his own, will land the right hook that rocks Rodriguez.
While Tybura may not be the type of fighter this would be super feasible against, it’s still an option and to see Aspinall, a heavyweight, do this would be a huge addition to his game. The ability to switch stances effectively opens up so many more aspects to his game that, as a heavyweight, would make Aspinall light years better than his competition. For more on the step back and how Alexander Volkanovski uses it, check out the UFC 290 Aftermath issue where we go in depth on that topic.
Aspinall is also quite capable of creating angles to land strikes from as well, though it hasn’t been necessary just yet. Pivoting off from a dip has been something we’ve seen from Aspinall in the past.
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Against Arlovski (1) Aspinall would read the right hand coming and (2) dip under the punch. Arlovski, in typical heavyweight fashion, (3) throws the exact same punch. Aspinall, this time, would dip under again and (4) pivot out to his left.
While this is great for Aspinall to get out of danger, the real gold lies in his positioning in reference to his opponent. Arlovski has whiffed on the punch and is really overextended with his face exposed. A cross or hook here would reap havoc on any opponent he faces. The burden will lie on Aspinall to capitalize on the positions he’s created and punish his opponent for overextending on a big right overhand, an almost universal sin in the heavyweight division.
Lastly, Aspinall is no slouch on the ground. For decades, UK fighters received flak for being so bad at wrestling. But over the years, the country has produced fighters that are actually quite good on the ground—or at staying off the ground. Grappling is no longer the Achilles’ heel of United Kingdom MMA. Aspinall, whose father was the longtime jiu-jitsu coach of Team Kaobon, is one of the fighters leading the way in this department.
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I promise, this is the last time we pick on Arlovski. After ducking under and nabbing a double leg takedown, Aspinall has Arlovski (1) sitting against the fence. Wanting the choke, Aspinall will look to push Arlovski over. (2) As Aspinall is successful in doing so, Arlovski will post on his left hand so as not to get flattened out and pushed to the ground in a much more disadvantageous position. Joke’s on him because Aspinall has already started bringing his left hand around for the choke. (3) Left hand in place, Aspinall has to free up his other hand to crank down on the choke. Arlovski is fighting the hand, trying to control it but is in no position to do so. (4) Aspinall eventually gets the choke in, cranked down, and finishes the fight.
This sequence is so brilliant because Aspinall knows that Arlovski has two options here: he can remove the post and go to the ground where Aspinall would likely be in full mount or he can let Aspinall go two hands to one and hope he can fend the choke off. He chose to let Aspinall go two-on-one and this let Aspinall get the win.
This fight isn’t the most exciting for Aspinall. The heavyweight division has moved on since he last fought. Jon Jones is champion, Sergei Pavlovich has made his rise through the division and Stipe Miocic has returned. Aspinall will get back in the win column and look to make his case for the Jon Jones sweepstakes that has been going on for over two decades now. He may or may not be the man to beat him, but who can blame him for trying?