Blaine Henry/Sherdog.com illustration
With all that said, our burning question today is: Will Dern be able to take down Hill? On this edition of Beforemath, we will explore just that.
Stick and Jab
Hill (15-12, 5 KOs) has been a mainstay for the UFC since her return to the promotion in 2017. There have been many ups and downs but at the end of the day, Hill has always been there. If we are being honest, not much about Hill is remarkable in a literal sense. She’s not going out to be exciting and she doesn’t produce knockouts. She does the basics well and has some flaws, but when she loses, Hill doesn’t get battered. The decision losses always make you raise an eyebrow because she could have won those fights.
One thing I’ve noticed about Hill is how she keeps her feet under her and doesn’t get out of position by overextending on her punching, which is conducive to not getting taken down. Dern struggles to get fights to the ground, and if Hill can stay away from clinches, it will give her that much less to work with. The only times Hill has been finished were by submission and staying out of that danger is priority No. 1.
Dern has a brawling style on the feet and Hill needs to be prepared to fight off the back foot for a good portion of this fight. Dern will come forward and she will look for big, looping punches to get her into a clinch to find a way for the takedown. For Hill, not backing up in a straight line will be key. Against Xiaonan Yan, we saw Yan have success by not staying on the center line against Dern. If Hill can avoid going straight back and pot-shot Dern from different angles, she will have success in this fight. The longer this fight goes, the more it will favor Hill if she stays the course.
Then of course, there is the usual stuff we talk about with modern MMA meta. Hill will want to hit the body to gas Dern, kick the leg to slow her down and make the takedowns much harder. All the jazz that frequent Beforemath readers already know all about.
Hill is 38 years old. This is a young woman’s sport. Against Dern, she faces real challenges that might be too much to overcome. But for Hill, not even letting those challenges come up is something that’s within her wheelhouse. A win gets her back into the Top 10. And while she is long in the tooth, Hill can still veteran her way into contention once and for all.
You Have to Get Takedowns
Here’s a fun fact someone told me: Only two fighters have ever attempted to submit Hill. They are also the only two to finish her. Mackenzie Dern (12-3, 7 Subs) will try to make it three at “UFC Vegas 73.” Hill may not be the top-tier matchup that Dern is accustomed to getting when she steps into the cage, and against whom she generally struggles. Xiaonan Yan, Marina Rodriguez, and Amanda Ribas turned out to be good fighters after beating Dern. Hill is a dangerous matchup that could send the former ADCC champion’s career spiraling if not taken seriously.
It’s not so much a secret anymore: Dern is dreadful at taking her opponents down. For someone so dangerous once she gets to the ground, Dern has shot a paltry 11% on her takedowns in her UFC run. In her last fight against Yan, Dern had two takedowns on 11 attempts, an absolutely miserable performance. Dern has had to get creative in the past on these takedowns by using the age-old method of pulling guard. Not particularly the highest-percentage technique but it has worked well at some points.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog.com illustration
When looking at the takedown of Tecia Torres, or the guard pull specifically, Dern (1) had to first reverse a clinch against the fence with Torres. After pressing her to the fence, Dern could begin to work and decided to (2) jump guard. Notice how Dern used her feet to post on the cage and tried to drag down Torres, albeit to no avail. (3) Dern would then wrap up Torres and get the fight to the ground.
To do this, although not pictured, Dern attacked the kimura as Torres rested against the fence. After fighting with the grip, Dern managed to tip over Torres and get to the ground. Now, the gimmicky stuff is cool but won’t consistently win you fights. What Dern will need to win this fight is high percentage shots. We need to look at what’s worked in the past against Hill and how Dern can implement in her game plan. For that, we look to another submission-first fighter, Virna Jandiroba, in her fight with Hill.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog.com illustration
Jandiroba had success getting Hill to the ground. In our second figure above, we see (1) Jandiroba managed to change levels and get in deep on a takedown attempt. Notice the wide, almost freestyle-esque penetration step. This was important to get in deep and underneath Hill’s punches. (2) Jandiroba managed to wrap both of her hands around the legs of Hill. This let her (3) take her right leg around the outside of Hill's. That provided another trip point for Jandiroba, who then (4) pushed through and secured a takedown.
Dern will have to find these types of takedowns to have a shot in this fight. Hill will not want to stay in the clinch. She will do everything she can to avoid it. It is going to be Dern’s responsibility to get to the mat where she is at her best.