UFC 282 is Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and I was incredibly excited to write about Jiri Prochazka-Glover Teixeira 2. The first fight between them was one of the best of the year, and diving into the rematch was going to be an enjoyable exercise. We were all bummed when Prochazka pulled out with an injury and Teixeira turned down a replacement. Now, we have Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev facing off for the vacant light heavyweight title. This fight may not be as intriguing on the surface, but as I did my tape study, I realized that I was becoming more and more excited about it. With fight week upon us, an in-depth look at Blachowicz-Ankalaev:
TALE OF THE TAPE
Blachowicz is a former light heavyweight champion. After his loss to Thiago Santos in 2019, he was fed two ballooned-up middleweights in Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo Souza. Those two wins had him matched with Corey Anderson, who was coming off a hype-building victory over Johnny Walker. It was there that Blachowicz earned his shot at a title left vacant by Jon Jones. He knocked out Anderson with a brutal right hook that saw “Overtime” out cold on the ground.
Blachowicz met Dominick Reyes for the vacant championship and put on a career-best performance. He brutalized Reyes’ body, leaving foot imprints to his midsection with clean, hard connections on kicks. Reyes, who had given Jones all he wanted and more, melted under the barrage to the body and got put away by Blachowicz in the second round. Still, Blachowicz was not recognized by the masses, as he never truly beat “The Man.” The next fight earned him the respect he deserved. Then-middleweight champion Israel Adesanya stepped up to 205 pounds to take on Blachowicz and make a pass at becoming a simultaneous two-division titleholder. However, Blachowicz stalled Adesanya with his odd striking style and massive size, then outwrestled him to get the unanimous decision.
Unfortunately for Blachowicz, he was bested by Teixeira at UFC 267. There, he was wrestled and subsequently choked out to lose his title. Blachowicz has since rebounded with a win over Aleksandar Rakic. However, Rakic had all the momentum in that fight and was starting to land clean before his knee exploded when he planted to step back. Blachowicz looks to regain his title with a win at UFC 282, but a tough challenge stands in his way.
That distinction belongs to Ankalaev. While he was born in Dagestan, do not expect to see a light heavyweight Khabib Nurmagomedov. Ankalaev is a highly technical striker and has the resume to prove it. Since his loss to Paul Craig in 2018, Ankalaev has been on a warpath. Now on a nine-fight winning streak, he has beaten three title challengers in his last three fights.
Ankalaev wasted a year of his career on Ion Cutelaba. Once he put Cutelaba behind him, he set his eyes to the top of the division. After a win over Nikita Krylov, Ankalaev put together the final leg of his journey to contention. He started his run by taking on Volkan Oezdemir. The fight was a banger at the beginning, but Ankalaev took the decision with a couple well-timed takedowns and straight punching. His next appearance was against Thiago Santos, and it was absolutely dreadful. Not much action happened, as Ankalaev admitted he wanted to go five rounds. He did so and took the decision. His best career victory came against Anthony Smith in his most recent assignment. However, it was marred by questions about whether or not Ankalaev really won because of his skills or the injury to Smith’s ankle.
The UFC 282 main event represents a continuation of the light heavyweight title volatility that has been around since Jones vacated the throne, as Ankalaev and Blachowicz look to bring some stability to the division.
LEAN ON YOUR EXPERIENCE
Blachowicz has five-round experience. With a 12-6 record in the Ultimate Fighting Championship and a 16-2 mark in KSW, he is one of the most seasoned fighters in the entire light heavyweight division. It is this high-level experience on which Blachowicz will have to lean in order to become the two-time light heavyweight champion at UFC 282.
Using his experience means that Blachowicz should plan to go the distance, first and foremost. Ankalaev is a tough out but has little five-round experience; Blachowicz can exploit this. Targeting Ankalaev’s body early and often will be good practice for the Pole. Ankalaev may think he has gone five rounds with his low-output fight with Thiago Santos. Targeting the body will bring him to a new layer of misery and swing the fight in Blachowicz’s favor at UFC 282, especially in the later rounds.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
Another savvy move would be for Blachowicz to target Ankalaev’s left arm. Ankalaev fights out of both southpaw and orthodox stances, but his best work comes out of southpaw, which puts his left hand at the rear. While kicking the body, Blachowicz can kick the arm, too, taking some of the steam off the punches. When Blachowicz kicks to the body, he can come across two positive options. He can either land to the body, taxing Ankalaev’s gas tank, or the Russian can block, meaning Blachowicz lands on the arm. We saw this exact tactic used by Stephen Thompson against Kevin Holland. Kicking the legs is the last piece of this recipe. Oezdemir and Santos had a lot of success going to the legs. While Ankalaev did check the kicks more against Smith, Blachowicz needs to dare him to do so consistently throughout the whole fight.
Ankalaev is difficult to get down, but Blachowicz has to get this done. Despite his supposedly legendary Polish power, Blachowicz has only five knockouts across his 18 fights in the UFC. Getting into a firefight with the more technically sound fighter could end poorly for him. Much like he did with Adesanya, Blachowicz should take this fight to the ground to steal the later rounds. To do this, he is going to have to put in the aforementioned body work and move his head—something he has not always done.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
In her recent fight with Marina Rodriguez, Amanda Lemos utilized head movement that led to a body lock. That tactic could be applicable for Blachowicz. With Ankalaev being such a straight puncher, he can anticipate the cross coming. We see Lemos do the same thing. In Figure 1 above, we see (1) that Lemos expected the step in and had her eyes on the Rodriguez’s cross. Ankalaev does not quite load up like Rodriguez, so Blachowicz will have to predict this a bit more. (2) Once Rodriguez threw, Lemos slipped to the inside of the punch. Make note of how the slip caused Rodriguez to overcommit. (3) Finally, Lemos got the body lock and managed to push the fight to the fence.
Blachowicz will need a bit of this tact to get Ankalaev to the ground. Shooting straight takedowns does not figure to work, as Ankalaev has decent takedown defense. The real key to the grappling will boil down to Blachowicz’s ability to drain Ankalaev’s cardio with the body work. Should he do so effectively, he can end this fight within the distance.
NEW BLOOD
Oftentimes, a division ages. Since Jones vacated the title, the 205-pound weight class has become a bit stagnant with top contenders. Blachowicz, Teixeira, Santos, Reyes and Smith have all served as gatekeepers, and we are finally seeing the old guard usher in new blood. Reyes fell out of favor due to a weak chin. Santos exited to go to the Professional Fighters League. Ankalaev beat Smith and Santos, and he now aims to turn away Blachowicz. Prochazka cracked the top of the division, and Ankalaev aims to blow it wide open.
With Blachowicz being so awkward, Ankalaev will want to keep to his patented straight punches to start to put some damage on the Pole. When times get tough, Ankalaev starts to wing punches. While his habit is not as bad as most fighters, against Blachowicz—a man who thrives in a firefight—Ankalaev will want to keep it straight and narrow.
Another great weapon possessed by Ankalaev is the low kick. Blachowicz can go to the legs, but he has not been as consistent in doing so as one would hope. To stifle these kicks, Ankalaev needs to go to the legs first and crowd the kicker, keeping Blachowicz on his back foot. With Blachowicz being oddly harder than normal to hit—he is not unhittable, but he can be awkward to land on—kicking the legs will slow him down. Doing so will allow Ankalaev to land clean and take over the fight via damage. Misdirection will also be Ankalaev’s best friend. With such heavy kicks, Ankalaev uses the hip feint to draw a reaction out of his opponents. This will be something he will assuredly utilize against Blachowicz at UFC 282.
Blaine Henry/Sherdog illustration
We see another example of misdirection with Rafael Fiziev against Rafael dos Anjos. Ankalaev does not utilize knees that often, but he does have them in his arsenal. Fiziev used the step-up knee at several points in his fight, and dos Anjos started to overcompensate and lower his hands to block the knee. In Figure 3, (1) we see Fiziev throw the knee and Dos Anjos throw his hands down at it. Fiziev threw a right hook that is not pictured that (2) caused dos Anjos to raise his left hand to block. However, Fiziev did not let him off the hook. With dos Anjos failing to guard half of his face, (3) Fiziev fired a left hook to the Brazilian’s opposite side. The strategy worked perfectly, as (4) Fiziev landed clean and (5) dos Anjos stiffened up for the finish.
While Ankalaev might not set up this type of exchange with a knee, the body kick and hip feint can draw something out of Blachowicz to open the big shots for the Russian. With these small maneuvers, Ankalaev can take Blachowicz out of the fight and possibly take a decision, too. Conserving energy will be important in order to balance the scales with the experience differential. All of this is incredibly doable for Ankalaev.
No matter who wins, all eyes will eventually shift back to Prochazka—the rightful champion of the light heavyweight division. With Prochazka vacating the belt because of injury, his return will be met with much fanfare, and the winner of this fight could have the honor of welcoming him back to the cage.