Luque came into the UFC with a lackluster 7-4-1 record and lost his debut to Michael Graves in 2015. But since that loss, he has gone on an absolute tear with a 9-1 record with all nine wins coming by knockout or submission.
If you’ve only seen the highlights, you would think Luque is just an ultra-aggressive power puncher but he is actually the exact opposite. He is tactical and patient on the feet and focuses on well-timed and precise punches rather than overwhelming the opponent with aggression. He does have incredible knockout power, but instead of relying on it, he uses it as a compliment to his technique. Something interesting about Luque is how he is able to walk down opponents with limited offense. Usually, fighters that are patient on the feet have a hard time trapping prey against the cage and forcing them to fight backward. But Luque is proficient at cutting off the cage with footwork and using the threat of his power to force opponents to retreat. Being able to cut off the cage without following your opponent is a skill that even some of the best fighters never develop, and it’s promising to see that the young Luque already has it down pat.
This is such an interesting fight not only because of the rankings implication, but also because of their vastly different styles. Perry likes to pressure forward and trade in the pocket with the occasional counter, and Luque likes to stay patient and wait for his opportunities to pounce. To see how Luque deals with an aggressive opponent, one only needs to watch his recent fight with Bryan Barberena. Barberena was pressing forward for all three rounds and forced Luque to stand and trade in the pocket. But instead of getting overwhelmed by the pressure, Luque covered up and focused on his defense and waited for his opportunities as usual. Barberena was winning the numbers, but Luque’s punches clearly caused more damage and in the final seconds of the fight, he finished him with a right hand and a knee up the middle. But Perry won’t be throwing half powered punches just to touch him like Barberena was, so it will be interesting to see what Luque does to deal with the pressure.
The beauty of Luque’s game is that he can walk opponents down and force reactions out of them without having to do much. Now that he has six knockouts in the UFC including four in a row, fighters are wary of his power. This allows him to use his cage cutting ability and filler strikes to back them to the cage. Very few are comfortable against the cage and most will eventually come forward with a combo to get off the fence, and that’s when Luque looks for counters. He favors a lead hook from an orthodox stance, but he does switch often and is dangerous out of both.
Luque is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, but he does have some glaring holes in his defense that he hasn’t seemed to work on. In his very first fight with the UFC, commentator Brian Stann pointed out that he rarely moves his head and keeps his torso upright at all times. This still plagues him today and is really the only hole in his game he needs to work on to become a top contender. His tendency to cover up instead of evading has gotten him clocked clean in multiple fights, and it’s only a matter of time before one of these end the fight.
Luque generally prefers to keep the fight standing, but the time he has spent on the ground has looked very promising for a striking-based fighter. He always sets up his takedowns attempts with strikes and against Leon Edwards, he routinely ducked under and went for the clinch.
Once the fight is on the ground, Luque looks for submissions instead of posturing up and striking. Of his six submission wins, five have been by brabo or anaconda choke, and the way he pulls for them during grappling transitions reminds me of Tony Ferguson. Despite odds having Luque as a -220 favorite, this is a razor-close matchup, but Luque’s grappling does give him a slight advantage. On the feet, I believe this one is dead even but Luque has shown to be smart enough to look for takedowns when he’s not getting it done on the feet, so his grappling may be the deciding factor.