Carmouche provides the material for this edition of The Film Room.
Carmouche’s game is fairly simple, but since there are few grappling-based fighters in the division, her style matches up perfectly with most of the 125ers. The variation on her takedowns sets her apart. She can shoot for standard single- and double-legs, but she is smart enough to know opponents are expecting the takedown and mixes up how she gets them to the ground. To make the opponents pay for coming forward aggressively, Carmouche will duck under or catch their strikes to grab the hips or drive them to the cage. Also, she will use the opponent’s momentum to get double underhooks in the clinch and look for trips or throws.
Carmouche is also proficient at using her limited striking to set up takedowns. Again, since opponents know the takedown is coming, Carmouche must set them up with strikes to get the opponents’ hands up and focus off their hips. Shevchenko is as pure a counterstriker as you will ever see and will certainly be looking to step back and counter Carmouche’s advances. If Carmouche can set up her shots with punches, it could take Shevchenko’s mind off of defending the takedown.
Once on the ground, Carmouche has no problem passing the opponent’s guard and posturing up with ground-and-pound. She generally tries to land in side control off of a takedown and will quickly swing her hips over into mount. She is also adept at floating her hips when opponents try to escape, an ability which allows her to keep the position or move into another dominate spot like back control. Shevchenko’s grappling has been surprisingly good for someone with a striking base, but we have seen her get dominated on her back in the past.
Once in a dominant position, Carmouche will posture up and drop ground-and-pound for the finish. Almost half of her wins have come by ground-and-pound, although the last one came against a still-green Jessica Andrade in 2013. Most people do not give Carmouche much of a chance, as odds on Shevchenko have ballooned to -1200 in some places. However, if Carmouche can get the fight to the ground, she could overwhelm Shevchenko with her ground-and-pound. She is not much of a submission threat, but she does hold the rank of black belt in jiu-jitsu, so if Shevchenko gets lazy on the ground, she could lock up a choke.
Fights like this are always interesting because no matter what anybody says, no one really knows how it will go down. We have a dominant striker paired with a dominant grappler, and despite the odds, Carmouche could definitely shock the world and control Shevchenko on the ground for five rounds. On the feet, she has nothing upon which to rely but a lucky punch. Her footwork when she backs up leaves a lot to be desired, and instead of trying to get off of the cage, she will often look for counters and get hit while being trapped against the fence. Hopefully, Carmouche takes no chances on the feet and attempts to get this fight on the ground as soon as possible.