The Bottom Line: What is Conor McGregor Fighting For?

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UFC 202 (online betting) by all rights should be one of the most anticipated events in mixed martial arts history. Its main event is a rematch from UFC 196, which was one of the two highest grossing MMA cards ever. It’s also a natural story, with Conor McGregor seeking to avenge the first loss of his Ultimate Fighting Championship career. Yet, while there’s no question the show will do quite well, much of the buzz heading into UFC 202 on Saturday in Las Vegas is negative.

McGregor, not long ago the miracle man and golden child, has become engulfed by negative publicity. There was the loss to Diaz, who took the fight on short notice. That was followed by the behind-the-scenes power struggle with the UFC that led to McGregor being pulled from UFC 202. The UFC’s shortsighted infatuation with callouts has led to half the fighters from 145 to 170 pounds publicly downplaying McGregor’s skills in an effort to get a fight with him. Ticket sales for UFC 202 have been a disappointment, leading to price discounts.

Make no mistake: UFC 202 will still end up being a success. There remains plenty of interest in McGregor and a natural story for his fight with Diaz. The hype for UFC shows tends to build in the half week leading up to the fight. However, there are real underlying issues at work. McGregor has lost more momentum than one might expect after just one UFC loss. At the heart of it is simple human psychology. Fans need to have a clearer understanding as to what McGregor is attempting to accomplish in his career and how each individual fight fits into those ultimate goals.

McGregor talks plenty about how he fights for money. There’s of course nothing wrong with that, but that isn’t a goal that’s going to terribly interest fans of a sport. Fans don’t get to spend that money; whether McGregor makes $20 million or $200 million over the course of his career doesn’t affect them at all. Floyd Mayweather Jr. generated fan interest by talking about money -- that’s a clear influence on McGregor -- but Mayweather’s money shtick was geared towards making himself a villain. The money came because fans wanted to see somebody finally hand Mayweather his first career loss. The dynamic is completely different for McGregor. While he has his detractors, more fans attending his fights are rooting for him than against him. Moreover, the carrot of removing the 0 from an undefeated record isn’t there for haters to latch onto. McGregor needs an overarching story that’s more relatable.

For most of the sport’s top attractions, the motivation has been very simple. They wanted to establish that they were the best and defeat everyone who tried to prove otherwise. That was the basic formula that McGregor followed in his pursuit towards Jose Aldo’s featherweight title, and he got hotter and hotter on that path. After that, McGregor talked of winning and defending titles in multiple weight classes. This worked even better because it took his ambition to a higher level. The problem came when he lost to Diaz.

Since McGregor fell to Diaz, it’s not clear what exactly he wants in his career. The Diaz fight is a straightforward opportunity for revenge, but it’s completely unclear what comes next. Does he go back to finally defend his featherweight title for the first time? Does he move to 155 pounds to fight lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez? What weight class does he ultimately want to be his home? Without answers to those questions, McGregor is basically drifting.

McGregor has paid lip service to defending the featherweight title, but he may not be keen on making a massive weight cut after two straight fights without having to do so. Plus, returning to fight Aldo isn’t a terribly enticing opportunity. It’s going to be nearly impossible to win as impressively as he did the first time, and if he loses, his fierce rival can claim the first result was a fluke. A fight with Alvarez offers more upside, but it would likely mean giving up the featherweight title without defending it. It’s not an easy choice, and thus, it’s murky which path McGregor will choose.

The fight with Diaz accentuates the need for McGregor to better outline what his goals are in the sport. Those long-term goals are what add the stakes to any individual fight, and against Diaz, the fight result doesn’t alter McGregor’s options much going forward. He could go down and fight Aldo at featherweight either way. It’s hard to justify giving him a lightweight title shot if he loses, but he can certainly move to lightweight permanently whether he wins or loses. The often-discussed fight with Georges St. Pierre could be justified either way, as well. The Diaz fight is important for McGregor’s pride, but it doesn’t neatly fit into his upcoming opponent selection.

Fans wouldn’t care as much about their favorite NBA or NFL team if the team just played a series of isolated games against random teams with no playoff at the end. The fun of sport is the quest to prove who the best is. McGregor’s career was built around that quest until he defeated Aldo. It made him a star. Since then, things have gotten much messier. In order to recapture the magic, McGregor of course needs to win. Just as important, however, he needs to recreate a career narrative that has been lost since he first ran into Diaz.