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In many ways, a win is a win, and a loss is a loss, but some simply feel bigger than others, for a variety of reasons. In some cases, the stakes are easy to identify. Picture the fighter on a losing streak who knows he or she is likely fighting for their job; or conversely, any title fight in a top regional organization, where the combatants know they are almost certainly being scouted by the big leagues. At other times, a fight feels especially important for reasons that are harder to quantify, but no less real. Whether it’s the unspoken weight of being a pioneer in MMA from one’s native country, or the simple added spice of two fighters who genuinely hate each other’s guts, that fight means just a little more.
This week, the Ultimate Fighting Championship sets up shop in Austin, Texas, for UFC on ESPN 52. The 13-fight slate is close to perfection by the standards of the promotion’s ESPN fight nights, from the possible lightweight title eliminator between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan in the headliner, to the cast of big names and rising contenders that fill out the rest of the main card, all the way down to unbeaten but largely untested prospects such as Zach Reese and Jamey-Lyn Horth on the prelims.
Of the 26 fighters set to make the walk at Moody Center on Saturday night, some have more at stake than just another W or L for the tally. Here are three fighters who are under just a little extra pressure to stand and deliver at “UFC Austin.”
No Dress Rehearsal for You, Deiveson Figueiredo
The shift to bantamweight for “Deus da Guerra” was such an obvious move that it is slightly surprising that it took this long. Figueiredo checked all of the boxes for potential success in the next weight class up, as a huge, powerful flyweight with known difficulties making the 125-pound limit, which were only likely to become worse as he moved further into his 30s. If not for his all-time great rivalry with Brandon Moreno, it’s entirely possible this move would have happened two years ago. As it is, their decisive fourth fight took place in January, and only now are we getting to see him test the waters at 135. The nearly 11-month layoff was long enough that Moreno lost the title in the intervening time, ironically negating one of the main reasons for Figueiredo leaving the division.
Fortunately, Figueiredo does not seem to have had any second thoughts about sticking around to test new flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja, and instead has stuck with his decision to fight at bantamweight, where he is being thrown right into the deep end—appropriately so—against Top 10 stalwart Rob Font. Font is a perfect test for Figueiredo’s bantamweight debut: a rangy boxer who should quickly introduce him to the realities of reach and height in his new division. Just as importantly, Font certainly sees himself as a contender and future title challenger, rather than anybody’s perfect test. While the bantamweight title picture is a bit of a logjam at the moment, an impressive win over Font would vault Figueiredo right behind the likes of Marlon Vera, who is up next for champ Sean O'Malley, and Merab Dvalishvili, who is working on what feels like a 30-fight win streak. A loss, however, would be a crippling setback. It might be an exaggeration to call this a now-or-never situation for Figueiredo, but it isn’t much of one. The 35-year-old Brazilian has matured into, at best, a two-fights-per-year fighter, so any delay in his bantamweight ascent will have him looking over his shoulder for the still-undefeated Father Time.
That Was Your One Mulligan, Sean Brady
A little over a year ago, Brady was 15-0 overall, 5-0 in the UFC, and one of the 170-pound division’s brightest rising contenders, representing one of the sport’s hottest camps, Renzo Gracie Philly. While his hype lagged just a bit behind that of his fellow welterweight young guns Khamzat Chimaev and Shavkat Rakhmonov, he was at least mentioned in the same breath. At just 30 years of age, he seemed destined to be, if not a champ, at least a major factor in the division for years to come.
The Brady express hit a wall—or one hell of a speed bump, at least—last October at UFC 280 in the form of Belal Muhammad, who laid a fairly one-sided beating on him en route to a second-round TKO. There are two ways to look at Brady’s first professional defeat. On one hand, Muhammad exposed deficiencies in Brady’s game that had been hinted at even before they resulted in an actual loss; namely, his lack of obvious routes to victory over opponents he couldn’t just dominate with his grappling, and his gas tank when faced with such opponents. On the other hand, Muhammad might be the second-best welterweight in the UFC right now and is no worse than the fourth, and as the ultimate grinding wrestler, was a miserable style matchup for Brady for the exact reasons just mentioned.
In other words, give Brady a bit of a do-over on that one. He wasn’t ready for Muhammad, but neither has anyone else been in nearly five years, other than Leon Edwards your current champion. With a year to regroup, Brady seeks redemption on Saturday against Kelvin Gastelum, in a very well-made matchup. Gastelum has plenty of question marks hovering over him as well, especially as he returns to welterweight. At his best, however, Gastelum has stout defensive wrestling, solid if underused offensive wrestling, and is a much better boxer than Brady has shown himself to be. Brady should be favored to win, but there’s a good chance he will be forced outside of his comfort zone in order to do so. That would be a good thing.
The Fun’s Almost Over, Miesha Tate
When Tate returned to the UFC in 2021 after a nearly five-year hiatus, it was a surprise, but of the one-cocked-eyebrow variety. Why come back now after so long away, with so little fanfare? How much did the 35-year-old have left to offer the division, and how seriously was she even taking this comeback? When she celebrated her return with an easy-looking drubbing of Marion Reneau, quite a few people who had been raising one eyebrow were now raising both. Knowing that former UFC champs usually have an express lane back to the title picture, it was worth wondering how many more fights the ex-bantamweight queen would need to win in order to earn a rematch with Amanda Nunes, the woman who dethroned her at UFC 200.
It’s fair to say that at this point, all eyebrows have returned to their normal positions. Tate’s loss to Ketlen Vieira in her next fight, and then to Lauren Murphy in a one-off attempt to move to flyweight, have blown away any expectation of a second title run. In both of those fights, Tate was game but largely overmatched by bigger, stronger foes she couldn’t move around—a death knell for Tate, whose game has always run on being the better wrestler.
That brings us to this Saturday and Tate’s scheduled tilt with Julia Avila. It is a good matchup; while Tate looked ineffectual against Vieira and Murphy, it is worth noting that both of those women were Top 5 fighters in their respective divisions. Avila is not, though she is another big, physical woman from the same general mold. If Tate cannot beat Avila, she is truly done as a factor in the division, but just winning might not be enough here. If Tate wants to keep fighting in the UFC, whether it be for honor, glory, love of the game or the simple attraction of the paycheck, she needs to come up with a decisive win and/or entertaining performance. Otherwise, she might see the promotion decide that her former-champ purses aren’t worth the squeeze.