Scouting Report: Sergei Pavlovich

Lev PisarskyApr 20, 2023

Sergei Pavlovich

Born: May 13, 1992 (Age: 30) in Orlovsky, Russia
Division: Heavyweight
Height: 6’3”
Reach: 84”
Record: 17-1 (5-1 UFC) Association: Eagles MMA
Stage of Career: Prime

Summary: Like many heavyweights, Pavlovich has managed to simplify MMA. He is a solid wrestler and achieved takedowns prior to entering the Ultimate Fighting Championship. However, at his current level, he uses wrestling and ground skills to keep the fight standing. He turns to his striking to overwhelm foes. All of the punches from his right hand are at least good, and he has very fast hands for a heavyweight, as well as an ability to throw excellent punches in bunches. His left hook is powerful but has some technical flaws, and his kicks are of little concern. What is utterly devastating is Pavlovich’s insane overhand right, one of the best punches in the sport. It is practically a perfect shot, with every single quality one could ever want in the blow, and it has claimed scores of victims. Opponents know it is coming but can do nothing to stop it. Additionally, Pavlovich has solid cardio for a heavyweight and a sturdy chin, so defeating him is a tall order. Given that his loss to Alistair Overeem happened four-plus years ago, it is an open question as to whether or not Pavlovich is vulnerable takedowns and fighting off his back.

STRIKING

• Stance: Orthodox.
• Hand Speed: Well above average.
• Jab: Fairly fast, technical and powerful.
• Cross: Carries similar properties to the jab, and he throws a nice one-two, though it is not his favorite combination.
• Left Hook: A little reaching and telegraphed, but it has solid rotation now and only a slightly wide arc. It offers significant power if it connects.
• Overhand Right: Fast, sudden, powerful and accurate, with nice, tight arc. Pavlovich will sometimes lead with it, resulting in a number of knockdowns. He can even time and counter opponents with it.
• Uppercuts: Technically thrown and powerful. A little hard to judge this strike since he uses it to finish already hurt opponents.
• Solitary Striker or Volume Puncher: Loves to throw punches in bunches in a barrage that overwhelms foes.
• Favorite Combination(s): Anything that ends with his big overhand right, whether it is a series of jabs first or even a left hook.
• Leg Kicks: Rarely throws them, but they are poor and surprisingly light.
• Body Kicks: Generally only uses subpar front kicks where he pivots too much on the back foot.
• Head Kicks: Never seen him throw one.
• Chains Kicks to Punches: No.

Pavlovich’s standup game is simple but incredibly hard to defeat. He has fast hands and throws punches in bunches, often not stopping until the opponent is down. He has a nice jab that he can use to set up his right hand, which is destructive in all its versions but especially when he throws the overhand—a practically perfect punch and an enormous weapon that opponents know is coming but cannot defend. If it lands—and with his fast hands and plethora of punches, it likely will—the opponent is in serious trouble, if not knocked out cold. His left hook is a little wide, reaching and telegraphed but has plenty of rotation and power if it connects. Pavlovich himself has fairly sound defense, with a solid sense of distance when he is not throwing to finish the opponent, so it is difficult to get to him first. Interestingly enough, Pavlovich’s kicks are weak in the rare times he throws them. On the flipside, Pavlovich is quite deft at checking or avoiding opponents’ leg kicks, so it is not an easy matter of outkicking him.

CLINCH

• Physical Strength: A big, powerful heavyweight.
• Technique: He has judo skills, but against Overeem, he was too preoccupied with the clinch striking and allowed himself to get in a bad position to be thrown.
• Knees: A damaging shot with which he loves to catch opponents who dip their heads.
• Elbows: Does not throw them.
• Defense Against Knees/Elbows: Sound.

Pavlovich does not like being in the clinch, but he has a stout knee he can throw there. He can be taken down at close range, though it is no easy task.

GRAPPLING

• Wrestling from a Shot: It was fairly effective in the Fight Nights Global promotion, where he took down some solid opponents with double-legs. However, he has not used it in years.
• Wrestling in the Clinch: Showed a nice suplex over his shoulder against Alexei Kudin and turned into Magomedbag Agaev on a poor attempt to be on top.
• Takedown Defense: Combines his physical strength with a solid sprawl and judo skills. Years ago, he had his knee caught and was taken down on a single-leg against Agaev. Pavlovich was also taken down on a Thai plum into outside trip by Overeem, in part because he was too worried about striking and could not transition quickly enough. Difficult to say whether that is indicative of his current level.
• Ability to Return to Feet: Able to push opponents off of him through a combination of good timing and his raw strength. However, if he cannot do so immediately, he is usually locked on the bottom.
• Submissions: Non-existent.
• Defense/Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the Bottom: As of the Overeem fight, quite poor. Stationary and vulnerable to ground-and-pound.
• Top Control: Opponents get up with ease, as Pavlovich is often content to simply stand.
• Ground-and-Pound: Impossible to say since his top control is so lacking. He has never shown it outside of finishing off badly hurt opponents.

Pavlovich has solid wrestling skills but does not use them anymore. This makes sense, as even if he does get a takedown, his top control is virtually non-existent, meaning opponents can easily get up. Pavlovich’s own takedown defense is good but not great, so higher-level grapplers can get him down. He is quite good at pushing off and creating space on the bottom, but if he does not do so immediately, he more often than not finds himself stuck on the bottom. That is bad news, as he looked exceptionally vulnerable to ground-and-pound against Overeem.

INTANGIBLES

• Athleticism/General Physical Strength: Moves fairly well for a heavyweight and is undeniably powerful.
• Cardio: When he weighed 238 pounds, it was excellent. He threw energetic, meaningful punches at roughly the same clip and even completed takedowns well into the third round. Whether or not that remain true at his current 255-pound frame remains to be seen. Pavlovich has not even seen a second round since 2017.
• Chin: At least up to par. He weathered a few big counters from Tuivasa while he was throwing his own.
• Recuperative Powers: He looked somewhat stunned by one of the Tuivasa shots but barely paused his offense.
• Intelligence: Excellent. Pavlovich has wisely eschewed his wrestling at his current level, shows at least a little improvement every fight and remains a calm, patient martial artist who excels at finding and exploiting openings.