The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday in Las Vegas revs its engines for the first of 12 straight weekends of in-cage combat. The first show comes at its home inside the UFC Apex, and it will alternate events at that venue and around North America for the better part of two months. The matchmaking—other than late-notice happenings—is solid enough to provide extremely close lines on all of the previously planned pairings. Join the UFC on ESPN 46 edition of Prime Picks, where we rip into the coinflip headliner and give it up for a pair of extremely experienced veterans.
Kai Kara-France (-110)
It is a rare occurrence when flyweights claim center stage at an event and even more unusual when they are given five rounds to handle their business without a belt on the line. Typically, 125-pounders only gain 25-minute status when that elusive title shot comes, so the experience in those championship rounds is crucial for those on the outside looking in. While Kara-France did not compete beyond the 15-minute mark his last time out, he was fighting for an interim strap against future king Brandon Moreno. Speed and punching power have given him a leg up on most of his opposition on the major stage, with the City Kickboxing mainstay opening many eyes by blasting Cody Garbrandt in late 2021. When facing an opponent without the given name of Brandon, Kara-France fares well, and the Kiwi’s experience will go a long way in this main attraction. These factors coming together give him value as an even-money pick.
Baghdad’s Amir Albazi may thrust himself into the top fighter status from the war-torn nation should he get past Kara-France. This is an extremely tough test and a giant leap up in competition after beating the likes of Alessandro Costa and Francisco Figueiredo in 2022. Albazi attacks hard and fast, having only reached the third round on four occasions in 17 pro fights. Although he showed off crisper than usual striking against Costa, his primary focus was to drag the fight down and pound on his opponent. It is a difficult ask to take Kara-France down and even rougher to keep him on his back for prolonged periods of the fight. Albazi will need to figure out how to manage his gas tank after repeated attempts, as Kara-France may stand him up or simply explode out of danger if put there.
“The Prince” may yet be a top contender, but this matching appears to be a bit too tall, too soon. With three finishes in his four UFC fights, Albazi has earned a chance against elite opposition, but he faces a problematic stylistic matchup in the form of a sprawl-and-brawler in Kara-France. The Kiwi, on paper, hits much harder than anyone Albazi has faced to date, and it remains to be seen how he handles himself when he gets stung in combination. Kara-France had Moreno at least extremely aware of the power in the early going of their rematch, with his right hand landing frequently on target. “Don’t Blink” is not indestructible, as he can be caught on both the feet and on the mat. The occasional recklessness of Kara-France can get him into danger, but his experience in 15-minute encounters gives him a leg up, relatively speaking, should Albazi run out of steam. This headliner is capable of delivering scintillating action, but Kara-France should be a step above and can pull off the win in a number of ways.
Alex Caceres (-175)
Once the owner of a UFC record below .500, the 34-year-old who goes by “Bruce Leeroy” may have finally figured things out lately. In his last seven outings, Caceres has won six, with a tough decision loss against a ranked Sodiq Yusuff as the lone blemish along the way. Both his striking and grappling have improved significantly, and his submission defeat to Kron Gracie back in 2019 can be chalked up to Gracie things. The fight IQ for the Floridian has improved in droves, as he picks his shots more carefully and sets traps in a way he never before would have considered. Booting Julian Erosa upside the head was no accident, as he dipped down perfectly before launching his shin to the chin. His options will be available when he faces Daniel Pineda, who is the epitome of an “all gas, no brakes” attacker who will come at him until the bitter end. Caceres is the rightful favorite, and with a solid chin and ample movement, his neck will be the lone liability in a fight where he should come out on top.
“The Pit” Pineda has seen three of his last seven end in no contests, and two of those were courtesy of failed drug tests that pulled wins off his ledger. The only defeat came when he sat in the pocket and slung leather with Cub Swanson, and his offense has otherwise been full-blast. Pineda will put himself in harm’s way to try to claim an advantageous position, even pulling guard or dragging someone on top of him so that he can pursue sweeps and force scrambles. This can be a case of “live by the sword, die by the sword,” as Pineda has serious defensive lapses that can be exploited. The confidence of both men cannot be sky-high, as they have both amassed double-digit losses, with the majorities by stoppage. However, Caceres appears to have turned the proper corners and sharpened his skills enough to get his hand raised here.
DOUBLE PLAY (+105)
Tim Elliott-Victor Altamirano Goes to Decision (-215)
Elise Reed vs. Jinh Yu Frey Goes to Decision (-250)
The two-piece parlay option on this card comes courtesy of the two lightest divisions for each gender. The first pick is a strawweight affair between two ladies with finish rates well below 60%, and the second, at flyweight, contains a former title challenger who has not landed a stoppage since 2017. Pairing these two fights together in an accumulator, with the expectation that each hears the final bell, pays off at plus money. Of the two, it is slightly more likely that Elliott-Altamirano busts this play, especially if Elliott comes out emotionally and either pulls off a finish or gets caught in something. Otherwise, this should remain intact at night’s end.
In their last four fights each, Elliott and Altamirano have combined for seven decisions in those eight matches. The lone break came when Altamirano put a beating on the skidding Daniel da Silva; otherwise, the athletes have needed the full allotment of time to get it done. With this pick, it does not matter who ends up winning in either match, only that the judges get involved. In the case of Reed and Frey, the latter last picked up a finish all the way back in December 2014. Neither woman typically strikes with enough power to hurt an opponent, and their grappling forces many prolonged clinch exchanges. While Elliott and Altamirano may put on a thrilling, wild and crazy battle, the strawweights may grind it out until the bitter end. As long as both fights end in the hands of the judges, the rest is gravy.
Andrei Arlovski (+115)
The last place may have otherwise been reserved for Jim Miller, who finds himself with yet another opponent just days before his match. The storied vet was expected to face a recently concussed Jared Gordon, and that plus money line around +155 seemed extremely appetizing. Instead, we shift our focus to the other man who is in search of the UFC’s all-time win total. Making his promotional debut in 2000–back when his opponent, Don'Tale Mayes, was 8—Arlovski has maximized much of his later years by retooling his game and taking into account his fading physical abilities. No longer a voracious knockout artist with a slick sambo game, “The Pit Bull” prefers to keep things on the feet with ample footwork and enough work rate to fluster other big men. It is no accident that since 2020, the now 44-year-old Belarusian has fallen short just twice in eight outings, and his snake-charming abilities can claim one more victim if he dictates the terms of engagement. It should be noted that Arlovski leads the promotion by a wide margin in appearances as the underdog, and his promotional record well above .500 speaks to his ability to pull off upsets.
As some, including Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Tom Aspinall, have shown of late, a strong blitz can catch the aging ex-champ unaware and unable to fully defend himself. All three of the Belarus native’s last three defeats came within the first six or so minutes, whether getting clocked with a big left hand or getting yanked down to the floor and choked out while still dry. Thankfully for Arlovski, that is not the name of the game for Mayes, who has not procured a stoppage in Round 1 since 2019. It has been instead slow and steady for “Lord Kong,” who either makes mental lapses as the fight progresses or has enough in the tank to outlast someone less energetic. Mayes would like nothing more than to wrangle the elder statesman to the mat and pound on him until the referee pulls him off, but Arlovski’s still-solid takedown defense remains an effective arrow in his quiver. It could turn into a grinding affair, but when it comes to pace and prolonged engagements, Arlovski is still able to pull off wins by doing just enough to get by.