The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday takes in the confines of the UFC Apex one more time before departing for all points east, west and every which way. Unlike recent UFC Fight Night affairs, this one shows some promise, with multiple highly relevant matchups littered on its lineup. Diverting a bit from the standard straight pick analysis, the UFC Fight Night 220 edition of Prime Picks instead focuses on time spent in the cage rather than choosing winners and upsets.
Nikita Krylov-Ryan Spann Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-140)
Before September 2019, Krylov had remarkably never gone the distance as a professional and only entered the third time once in an incredible 32 bouts. This his second stint on the roster. The first ended not because he was cut but rather because the man formerly known as “Al Capone” sought out greener pastures in Russia with Fight Nights Global. Since coming back, Krylov has displayed both patience and durability, and this has led to going to decision in four of his last six outings. When he does get the job done inside the distance, it tends to be in a hurry, with commentators likely remarking that he is not paid hourly. Against Spann, a fellow demolisher who has discovered crushing power of late, this headliner has all the makings of one that will end early.
While Spann cannot quite celebrate four decisions in his pro career, his rates are not much worse, reaching the final bell in five of his 28 appearances. The last five walks to the cage have all concluded in the opening frame, while coming against elite competition like Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker. Despite his massive size, Spann and former UFC fan-favorite Donald Cerrone share an unusual commonality. Before joining the UFC, Cerrone had never once performed a knockout, with all of his finishes by submission. It was not until he faced future champion Charles Oliveira that he landed a knockout, and he went on to amass 10 under its banner. Spann, who easily cuts at least 20 pounds to reach the 206-pound mark, had only pulled off one knockout before introducing himself on Dana White's Contender Series. Now half of his career victories due to strikes are under the UFC flag.
Combined, these two light heavyweights have notched 38 first-round finishes, with 41 of 50 victories taking place under one and a half rounds. Neither man holds an indestructible chin or impermeable submission defense, and both can be susceptible to club-and-sub defeats or simply being out of position to take one on the chin. They come out of their respective corners shot out of proverbial cannons, and the final impact will be destructive and sudden. There is the slight potential that with five rounds to work, the two measure one another cautiously in the opening frame, but it will only take one engagement to really get things going. Both fighters display a penchant for getting hit and wanting to give it right back, and they are both more than willing to try things out on the ground should they get their bell rung. An early stoppage on either side is expected, and the line for the under is worthwhile. If one positively craves a pick for a victor, one could do worse than Spann seizing the upset and winning inside the distance at +165.
Andre Muniz-Brendan Allen Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-165)
The two middleweights in the co-main event have landed 26 submissions in their 43 wins, with another nine knockouts on their respective ledgers, as well. In the case of the fairly heavily favored Muniz, the selection of this particular under is especially palatable because he has never before lost on the scorecards. Every man to beat him has stopped him in 6:05 or less, and Allen is the kind of opponent who will throw the kitchen sink at him early and often. “All In” is the perfect nickname for a fighter who sports an 80% finish rate and has only lost recently when getting too reckless against sharper strikers. Violence is on the menu for this 185-pound affair, and both fighters have the offensive chops to make sure this does not reach the scorecards.
The fight ending at 12:30 or sooner provides a more satisfying line than simply not going the distance (-205), due in part to the two fighters only celebrating one single stoppage beyond that mark. Muniz has been slowed only by competent defensive grapplers who can protect themselves from harm, like Uriah Hall, as the Brazilian rode out the fight with back control. The frantic scrambles and potential technical wizardry on the ground can lead to someone getting caught—more than likely the American, which gives Muniz at -110 to win inside the distance as an option for a more direct route—and it will likely be a lot of fun until it ends in a blink. Allen has some pop on his punches and is the more skilled striker on the feet, but it should only resort to that if he can stave off Muniz’s attempts to ground him and keep him honest. The likelihood that the referee will be involved instead of the final bell gives this play legs.
Augusto Sakai-Don'Tale Mayes Goes to Decision (+140)
On its face, betting that a heavyweight fight goes to a decision might be ill-advised. When looking at the recent history for one of these men, it sounds even worse given that Sakai has dropped his last four by knockout. Mayes has shown to have clubbing power, as Ricardo Prasel got decked and pounded out in a hurry. Mayes has the height and reach advantage, but Sakai likely remains the craftier striker of the two. While the big man known as “Lord Kong” can handle himself on the feet, he would likely prefer to take the fight down and lord over his opponent from top position. Sakai’s takedown defense has been exploited by Sergey Spivak and even Alistair Overeem in recent memory, and if Mayes can do the same, this ticket might get torn up.
The onus will be Sakai to sprawl-and-brawl. When not dumped on his back, thinking about oncoming takedowns or getting his bell rung, the Brazilian has decent hands. A speedy 2019 knockout of Marcin Tybura likely allows him to remain on the roster despite losing his last four, but his back is firmly against the wall here. Both fighters can tend to be frontrunners who struggle if challenged, and that tendency could force both of them to stall out for prolonged stretches of the fight. Instead of Mayes keeping behind a lengthy jab or Sakai getting on the inside to bust his foe in the chops, they could wind up grappling against the fence for some time. The fight IQ is not the highest for either of them, which could turn it into a grind instead of a performance where one styles on the other. The UFC’s pattern of putting an unranked heavyweight clash high on the main card may again work against it, as this fight goes the distance.
DOUBLE PLAY (-145)
Montana De La Rosa-Tatiana Suarez Goes Over 1.5 Rounds (-245)
Erick Gonzalez-Trevor Peek Doesn’t Go to Decision (-515)
In another break from tradition, this last pick will actually be in the form of a two-leg parlay, because neither of these options appear worthwhile enough to take outright. The accumulator concludes with the flyweight contest between De La Rosa and Suarez, with the expectation that if there is a finish, it comes either late into Round 2 or in the third frame. Suarez is famously returning from an extremely long layoff—over three and a half years—and moving up a weight class, as well. While she could throw women around at 115 pounds, it remains to be seen if it as simple up a division. This will be Suarez’s first UFC opponent who will measure both taller and rangier in the arms, as De La Rosa will have size on her side and can offer plenty of resistance. When the Elevation Fight Team fighter gets beaten, it is rarely quick—barring a Mackenzie Dern omoplata rear-naked choke—and it may take some time for Suarez to get her sea legs again.
The first piece of this double play takes place in the preliminary headliner, in a lightweight smash-’em-up derby as “The Ghost Pepper” Gonzalez tries to get on the board against the debuting Peek. Both fighters fashion themselves as strikers first, and they are looking to impress in different but important ways. Gonzalez might be fighting for his job, while Peek posts a 100% knockout rate without a defeat on his ledger. These two defensively flawed and aggressive combatants will meet in the middle and throw, and one will land and likely finish the job before the final bell. A more direct pick for a specific fighter to get his hand raised is Peek by knockout, which clocks in anywhere from light plus money to -135 depending on the book. This two-piece will cash at reasonable -145 odds, without risking a great deal going after two likely outcomes.