After what some may feel was a refreshing break, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in your life again. The organization is not starting the year in style, pushing out a snakebitten lineup that saw the headliner change a week out. With half the betting lines seeing favorites of -300 or higher, we will navigate the rocky terrain of UFC Fight Night 217 with a mixture of caution and boldness, as per usual.
Sean Strickland vs. Nassourdine Imavov Goes Over 2.5 Rounds (-160)
After swapping in a fighter on super short notice, and moving it up a weight class, this headliner might actually be somehow more relevant than its previous incarnation. Out goes Kelvin Gastelum for a nasty injury to his mouth, and in comes the man who unsuccessfully headlined the final UFC card of 2022. Strickland will be looking to bounce back from his first skid of the year, and he brings a substantially different stylistic matchup than Imavov was preparing. No longer will the Frenchman be battling a squat wrestle-boxer that likes to wing punches, instead he faces a jab-centric opponent that stands straight up in the air. With all the intangibles that could play a factor, the best option is not to pick a winner but instead how long the fight lasts. As long as this bout hits 2:30 of Round 3, the victor is immaterial.
While this fight changes from one immediately relevant in the middleweight landscape, it also shifts to one that might be less dangerous for both fighters. Gastelum can still crack, and an accurate Imavov could take advantages of Gastelum’s defensive lapses. Instead, Imavov will toe the line with a foe that holds a reach advantage over him, and one that uses their range well. The match, which remains a five-round tilt, could turn into a game of tit-for-tat jabs and follow-ups, with neither fighter committing on something serious to throw themselves out of balance. A relatively high-volume, low-intensity contest could spring forth that is something more akin to a sparring match. This kind of methodical match leads to lulls in action, all while the clock keeps on ticking readily.
In the four weeks since he has competed, especially over the holiday break, it is extremely unlikely that Strickland has retooled his game in any noteworthy capacity. There is nothing to indicate that the Syndicate MMA-rooted combatant will present any additional arrows in his quiver, or that he will psychologically come around the bend to get out of the proverbial first gear. Strickland can cruise at times, and Imavov may let him do so – this eats up plenty of time. The Frenchman may hold more power per strike, but Strickland can absorb punishment as long as he does not eat one concussive blow that separates him from his senses. Luckily for “Tarzan,” Imavov has not presented one-hitter quitter power on any occasion, and even if he hurts Strickland, he might not be able to put him away. While a play for a decision – this line is +130 – is not out of the realm of possibility, the short-notice nature of this affair plus the weight change may mean that a fighter fading in the later rounds is possible. As long as the headliners reach the midpoint of the third frame, all is well for this betting opportunity.
Mateusz Rebecki Wins in Round 1 (-105)
When two of your six career victories have come over the legendary Jay Ellis, it says something about your strength of schedule. Nick Fiore, debuting on short notice as a replacement, came up largely on the Combat Zone scene, a mid-level organization in New England. As a result, he only posts two wins over foes with records above .500, and this turned into six first-round finishes in his favor. Fiore springboarded into the UFC on the heels of an 87-second knockout, but it came against an opponent in Stephen Stengel with six wins opposite 19 defeats. This strength of schedule or lack thereof is not the type that bodes well for a UFC newcomer, as Rebecki will be the best fighter Fiore has faced by a significant degree. As someone who comes shot out of a cannon to get the finish, Fiore will run into a Polish brick wall, only to find that brick does hit back.
While the majority of Fiore’s opposition has been subpar to say the least, Rebecki in 17 pro outings has yet to square off against an adversary that even sports a .500 record, let alone one with 90+ losses. “Chinczyk” worked his way through Fight Exclusive Night, the second-tier promotion in Poland below the likes of KSW, and held its 155-pound title for a good three years. While not reaching Fiore’s 100% finish rate in the first round, Rebecki posts a countering stoppage rate of 87%, and plenty of Round 1 victories on his ledger. On Dana White's Contender Series, he made quick work of Rodrigo Lidio, who came into the pairing without ever hearing a final bell. At -750 outright, and at -280 inside the distance, neither of those two options for Rebecki are worthwhile alone. Unless part of a parlay, it would be best to call one’s shot in this round – and trying to drill down for a knockout vs. a submission may be a coinflip, compared to Rebecki making a statement in the opening five minutes.
Jimmy Flick (+300)
There is always great risk in selecting a fighter coming off a lengthy layoff, and in Flick’s case, a sudden retirement after his victorious UFC debut in 2020. “The Brick” called it quits, and then seemingly out of nowhere, jumped back in competition. Flick was initially slated to face Jeff Molina, but “El Jefe” is preoccupied now with the recent developments in the James Krause betting scandal. In steps Charles Johnson, who seems like he has all the skills to be a contender, but cannot quite put them together. It is difficult to gauge a fighter who lost to a rising star, and also contentiously won over a falling one. Johnson is the favorite, and for good reason, but at this stage of his UFC run he should not be over -350 against practically anyone in his division.
Flick is an old school fighter; he is a one-branch specialist. His striking is barely means-to-an-end, without even an accidental stoppage due to injury or pound-out on his ledger. Submissions are his bread and butter, and he can slap on an arm-triangle choke in the blink of an eye from on top. Flick is inventive and active when the fight hits the mat, even willing to pull guard to bring it there or jump for flying moves. This may lead to some thrilling exchanges on the floor, when it inevitably gets there, as Johnson may not have the firepower to hurt Flick on the way in. “InnerG” is no slouch on the ground and has never been tapped out, which could to lead to a decision to fight Flick at his best skillset to prove a point. It would behoove the Missouri native to keep things standing and make Flick pay for any shots or level changes, but he must know at some point the fight will hit the canvas. From there, it’s Flick’s world, and this gap in displayed skill means that Flick at high plus money is worth a nod.