The Ultimate Fighting Championship may not be putting its best foot forward on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, but the dozen fights on the billing bring some wild betting lines, from perfect pick’ems to a favorite above -2000. A few of these tilts may be traps, and much of the value is found not on the main card but on the prelims. The UFC Fight Night 205 edition of Prime Picks eyes a play in the length of the headliner, a pair of fighters who should be more heavily favored against their inactive opponents and an enormous underdog who has a far better chance of winning than the line indicates.
Amanda Lemos-Jessica Andrade Goes Under 3.5 Rounds (-125)
Andrade checks into this pairing as a sizeable -220 favorite, one that is not prohibitive but relatively dry from a value perspective. Lemos has not faced off against someone who hits as hard as she does or harder since dropping down 20 pounds to strawweight, and Andrade will meet her in the middle and let her hands fly. Both women are hittable, and they both do their best work in the first round, with 18 stoppages in Round 1 between them. The lone defeat for “Amandinha” came when Leslie Smith stormed her with unending blows until referee Rich Mitchell had seen enough. Smith simply overwhelmed her and did not let Lemos get off anything in response. Andrade can do just that, but if someone can match her power, it becomes a ballgame. With finishing abilities firmly held by the two headliners in spades, an under play at -125 may be more suitable than hoping one countrywoman overcomes the other.
The ex-strawweight queen Andrade left the division in 2022 after losing the rematch to current champion Rose Namajunas, and a brutal knockout of Katlyn Chookagian showed it might have been the right plan. If not for Valentina Shevchenko, Andrade may today be holding the strap. Instead, “Bullet” beat her at every stage of the game, sending a dejected Andrade back to the drawing board. Although she crushed Cynthia Calvillo in her bounceback fight, “Bate Estaca” had designs on returning to her stomping grounds at 115 pounds to piledrive some opponents. Lemos may be taller and larger, but Andrade has never had an issue taking on someone bigger; she did tap out a woman in Larissa Pacheco who later competed at lightweight, meaning 40 pounds separate them now.
Lemos sports five knockdowns in her last four trips to the cage, and most recently became the first fighter in the Octagon to put the durable Angela Hill on her seat. The stinging strikes from Lemos get her opponents’ attention early, and they have the ability not just to hurt but to take others out of their game. Both Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza almost completely shut down before Lemos put them away, and Andrade is susceptible to getting cracked if the woman standing across from her stands her ground. It might end in the first round, but with the odds where they are now, the under at the fight concluding before the midpoint of Round 4 is tantalizing. Lemos has never fought that far before, while Andrade’s lone excursion beyond the 15-minute mark resulted in a clear-cut loss to a superior striker in Joanna Jedrzejczyk. A finishing sequence could come out of nowhere, and as long as it occurs before 17:50 in the bout, the prop will hit.
Dwight Grant (-105)
A full six fights into his UFC run, “The Body Snatcher” is still a bit of an unknown quantity. True to his nickname at times, Grant may not so much snatch bodies as he does catch them if he lets his hands go, but that is very much an issue. Four of his last five appearances have gone to split scorecards, and the Alliance MMA fighter has gone 2-2 in those outings. Instead of coasting, Grant does increase his paltry volume as the fight progresses, but the increase is relative, as he may land 10 significant strikes in Round 1 and elevate it to 15 in the third frame. Accuracy is a huge issue for the New Yorker, who lands just a third of his significant strikes attempted. Despite all of these flaws, he takes on a fighter in Sergey Khandozhko that has not stepped in a cage since late 2019. Ten strikes in a round are better than zero over the last few years, and Grant as a pick’em with both in minus territory is not one to be missed.
Russia’s Khandozhko, even after a long time away from competition, is still just entering into his athletic prime. He turns 30 in May. Younger fighters historically see significant improvements as they move from fight to fight, and even the 33-bout vet can show marked upgrades with the time he has been off. “Honda” did attempt twice to take the stage in 2021, but an injury and a COVID-19 diagnosis squashed those plans. The intangibles largely play against the Russian, but at the very least, he will not be facing an opponent who is traditionally a fast starter that can catch him while trying to get his sea legs beneath him again. Neither man has dazzled with his in-cage performances, but the size, strength and activity of Grant should give him the edge, not to mention an ability to get the fight down to the mat should things go awry.
Marcin Prachnio (-130)
It comes as a surprise that Prachnio, who swings into this light heavyweight contest with as much momentum as he did coming into his 2018 UFC debut, is barely favored while opponent Philipe Lins is even money. Lins has not fared well inside the Octagon, with the fifth iteration of Andrei Arlovski outworking him and Tanner Boser and his mullet thrashing him. Lins will return to 205 pounds after moving there in search for $1 million with the Professional Fighters League, and the shift paid off as he went 4-0 in PFL and claimed the giant check at the end. As he gets up in age and returns to a division where he will face younger, faster opponents, it does not bode well for “Monstro.” Getting Prachnio at anything beneath around -175 to -200 appears a worthwhile endeavor.
Lins never blew up as a heavyweight, a la William Knight, coming in around the 230-pound range as a shredded light heavyweight who simply did not bother cutting weight. This is a change for him, as it will be his first time cutting down since taking on Vadim Nemkov in 2017, and he will do so at the ripe age of 36. Both the Brazilian and his Polish counterpart are quite hittable, and Prachnio has shown faster hands—even if Sam Alvey punched him out in the former’s promotional debut. No matter if one is confident in Lins or Prachnio, consider adding Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance at -210 for a two-option parlay that would clock in at around +161 for a Prachnio selection and +195 for Lins. With Lins away for nearly two years while Prachnio has been active, the value is firmly in favor of the 33-year-old, and a narrow pick of Prachnio getting the stoppage at +150 is not out of sorts, either.
Mike Jackson (+700)
The UFC unquestionably holds a vested interest in this preliminary card opener, as it puts boisterous Irish striker Dean Barry against the man it dragged in to qualify to face Phil Brooks. “The Truth” still went on to face “CM Punk,” and he ran roughshod over the current All Elite Wrestling star over three embarrassing rounds, only for the victory to be stripped unceremoniously due to a positive test for marijuana in Chicago. Like Barry, Jackson has appeared far more comfortable on the feet, with prior appearances in boxing and kickboxing before turning to the MMA ranks, and he did prove against Brooks that he can change levels if need be. Barry undoubtedly wants the fight to remain upright unless he drops Jackson, and Jackson will welcome an exchange of fists and feet. While his displayed skill resides somewhere between “CM Punk” and Mickey Gall, Jackson is a live underdog here in this matchup.
Barry may possess four victories under his belt, all four by knockout, but they do not entirely hold up under scrutiny. Just one of those opponents came into their meeting with a winning record, and the combined win-loss tallies for those four totals 15-33, while a 2-5 sacrificial lamb in Bellator MMA tapped him in 2018. Every victory for the Irishman has come by first-round knockout, and if one wishes to throw some scratch on the overwhelming favorite, Barry winning by stoppage is at -200 while getting his hand raised after a first-round finish is in plus territory at +135. The question looms as to what happens when either man takes a flush strike to the dome, and with this remaining even over Barry’s head, it is borderline unconscionable that he comes in to his UFC debut as a -1400 favorite. To compare, the flyweight destroyer of worlds—Shevchenko—has not eclipsed -1300 in her UFC run, and that comes in a division where a “puncher’s chance” rarely presents itself.
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