Augusto Sakai (-150)
One of my top plays is Sakai to defeat Andrei Arlovski in heavyweight action. This is a pure fade on Arlovski, as I believe he has little left in the tank at this point in his career. However, I’m also quite high on Sakai as well. The Brazilian is only 27 and has already racked up a 12-1-1 record including a TKO win over Chase Sherman in his Ultimate Fighting Championship debut. The Contender Series alum has only lost once in his mixed martial arts career, a split decision loss to Cheick Kongo in Bellator. Otherwise, he has been mostly a knockout artist with 10 career wins by TKO. That doesn’t bode well for Arlovski, who has been knocked out 10 times in his career. Now 40, the Belarusian has seen better days. He’s just 2-7 with 1 no contest over his last 10 bouts and is currently riding a three-fight winless streak. He hasn’t finished a fight since a 2015 win over Travis Browne and there’s no indication to think he still has what it takes to turn things around. To me, Arlovski is fade material and you have to go with Sakai here since the odds are low. At -150, I like him for a play.
Gilbert Burns (-250)
For a parlay piece, give me Burns over Mike Davis. Burns is a tremendous talent in the lightweight division and is coming off of a solid 2018 where he went 2-1 with wins over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Dan Moret. Known purely as a submission artist for much of his career, Burns has really put together a complete game and has started to show off his knockout power in recent fights. With a 7-3 record in the UFC, Burns has a ton of Octagon experience at this point. At 32, he needs to put it all together now if he wants to make a run for the top 15. Standing in his way is Davis, the Contender Series alum who is filling in on very short notice for the injured Eric Wisely. We saw Davis lose a decision to Sodiq Yusuff on the Contender Series, but he bounced back with another knockout win on the regional scene, upping his pro record to 6-1 with six wins by knockout. He’s a solid prospect, but the combination of moving up in weight and taking this fight on short notice seems like a lot to overcome. I’ve been quite high on Burns for a while and coming off of a great win over Aubin-Mercier I see no reason to fade him. At -250, Burns looks like a solid parlay piece.
Roosevelt Roberts (-360)
Another fighter I like for a parlay is Roberts to defeat Thomas Gifford. Roberts is one of the top prospects in the lightweight division and I’m quite high on his potential in the sport. Just 25, Roberts is 7-0 as a pro with all of his wins coming by stoppage, including a submission win over Darrell Horcher in his UFC debut via standing guillotine choke. He’s a great prospect and potentially a future contender at 155. Gifford (14-7, 2 NC) doesn’t have the most impressive record, but he seems to have improved lately as he’s unbeaten in his last five. At just 26, Gifford is plenty young himself, though he has been competing as a pro since 2011 and has taken quite a bit of damage. Not only will he have to battle the Octagon jitters here but he also has to face a solid prospect in Roberts who already has UFC experience. I think Roberts finishes this fight, and at -360 he makes for a solid parlay piece.
Cory Sandhagen (+120)
For a dog pick, give me Sandhagen to beat John Lineker in what should be a fantastic bantamweight bout. I’m a big fan of both these fighters, but I’m really high on Sandhagen right now and can’t turn down the opportunity to bet on him at plus money. Sandhagen is just 27 and is 10-1. He’s currently riding a five-fight win streak including a 3-0 mark in the UFC with all three of his wins coming by stoppage. He’s an incredibly well-rounded fighter with plenty of knockout power and submission prowess, making him a tough out for anyone at 135. Of course, much of the same can be said about Lineker. It’s kind of crazy to think that Lineker is only 28 considering this will be his 40th professional MMA bout, but it’s a fact. The Brazilian has a terrific 31-8 record in MMA including a stellar 12-3 record in the UFC. He’s won eight of his last nine bouts and is coming off of a brutal KO win over Brian Kelleher that reminded us why he’s called “Hands of Stone.” Lineker is a tremendous fighter, no doubt about it, but I think Sandhagen is one of the best prospects in the bantamweight division, not to mention one of the few fighters that can stand toe-to-toe with Lineker. This is the biggest fight of Sandhagen’s career, but if he wins we’ll have a brand-new contender. I think he does win the fight, so give me Sandhagen as my underdog pick of the week.
Adam Martin is a mixed martial arts journalist who has been covering the sport since 2011. He is currently the lead odds analyst for Sherdog.com as well as the lead staff writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Adam is also the co-host of “The Parting Shot Podcast” on iTunes. His favorite fight of all time is Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua and he wishes Pride never died. Adam is based out of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and he is a graduate of the University of Toronto and Centennial College. Get in touch with him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.