The Ultimate Fighting Championship pulls up to the Great Salt Lake with a solid card on paper that presents a few seemingly wacky betting lines. Matchmakers took great pains to ensure violence ensues at the Delta Center, and bettors expect a number of these planned encounters will conclude before the final bell sounds. Join the UFC 307 edition of Prime Picks, as we pitch expectations that “And Still!” will echo through the building, while celebrating a revitalized ex-champ and throwing cold water on a habitual line-skipper.
STRAIGHT-UP CASH
Raquel Pennington (-170)
When Pennington had her face rearranged by Amanda Nunes in 2018, her championship aspirations seemed to fade away like the family photo in “Back to the Future.” A few months older than “The Lioness,” Pennington was relegated to a top-tier gatekeeper because a rematch against Nunes would appear unconscionable. When Nunes retired, the door opened, and the wily veteran claimed what many expected would be forever out of reach. The Colorado native did so by remaining consistent, active enough and grinding her way to glory. Her fight style may not always be glamourous, but it is effective against all but the elite echelon of 135-pounders. Against ex-champ Julianna Pena, she faces a fellow grappler, but the odds are in her favor for a reason.
Including winning “The Ultimate Fighter” almost 11 years ago, Pena has engaged in 10 UFC bouts. Numerous injuries and other issues have kept “The Venezuelan Vixen” out of combat for lengthy stretches, and championship opportunities were but a pipe dream. Somehow, on the heels of one submission win over Sara McMann, Pena talked her way into a title shot against Nunes, and she did the darn thing. While the rematch showed what would likely happen if they met 10 times—she would be on the losing end, with Nunes smashing her up—her stunning upset can never be taken away. Over two years later, Pena has once more talked her way into the title picture, despite her only performance in nearly three years being about as lopsided as it gets. Momentum is firmly on the side of the champion.
While known as a grappler, Pena’s own determination to get the fight down has gotten her in trouble in the past. Germaine de Randamie, a woman not at all known for her submission prowess, put her to sleep with a guillotine choke when Pena shot for an ill-advised takedown. Pennington did the same against Macy Chiasson, with shocking power that actually lifted Chiasson off the mat before crushing her windpipe with a 10-finger guillotine. Pena’s takedown defense is practically nonexistent, relying on her jiu-jitsu chops to threaten and hope for sweeps. When Pennington gets on top, it is a difficult proposition to dislodge her. Unless she can snatch up an unexpected submission, Pena may be staring down the barrel of double-digit minutes of control time as Pennington imposes her will.
STRAIGHT-UP PASS
Mario Bautista (-137)
Some way or another, at 38 years of age, former champion Jose Aldo has discovered the fountain of youth. Once on the brink of retirement after having lost three straight—albeit to the top echelon of the featherweight and bantamweight divisions—the “King of Rio” has turned things around to win four of five. In those victorious appearances, it at times has not been close, as he surpassed talented strikers time and again while looking arguably as good as ever. The lone blemish came against future champ Merab Dvalishvili, who demonstrated that this version of Aldo might not be able to simultaneously stonewall a myriad of takedown attempts while also keeping his offense sharp and active. When battling rising talent Jonathan Martinez, the beloved Brazilian rung Martinez up with kicks to every target, beating the younger man to the punch while landing his first takedown in over a decade. He can do the same to Bautista, who threatens with a high-volume, low-power approach that Aldo has seen many times before.
The step up in competition for Bautista from Ricky Simon to Aldo is a substantial one, although the Arizonan drew an unfortunate dance partner when debuting against Cory Sandhagen. The green Bautista came in undisciplined and paid the price, getting clocked with a flying knee and falling into a submission early. He has since calmed down but still finds him stumbling face-first into furious brawls where he could find himself face down in a hurry. Trevin Jones was the lone fighter thus far in the promotion to crack his chin, but Aldo and his effective counter game could get his attention early. While always defensively sound, the striking accuracy of the Brazilian has shored up of late, landing at rates of 55%, 56%, 53%, 51% and 62% in his last five. This could spell problems for Bautista, and a bet on him at these odds should probably be skipped.
’DOG WILL HUNT
Ketlen Vieira (+650)
Kayla Harrison at -1100 odds against a Top 5 UFC bantamweight seems like a miscalculation. Confidence in the Professional Fighters League export is understandably at an all-time high considering how she ragdolled former champ Holly Holm, doing so in a way no one had seen since Miesha Tate choked the kickboxer lifeless in 2016. Harrison took far less damage than Tate in her encounter and did so much quicker. Bettors have always been a bit off their rocker when it comes to Harrison, as she regularly checked in with astronomical lines at -3000 or above when washing the ladies put in front of her in PFL. Against Larissa Pacheco in their trilogy match—a fight that portions of pundits thought would be a much closer fight than the first two—Harrison was predictably off the charts at -800, and it took some decent boxing and stalwart takedown defense to stave her off. Vieira carries a resolute takedown defense rate in the Octagon of over 90% and combines it with decent pop in her punches. That makes her as live an underdog as any competing at UFC 307.
Due to some fuzzy betting lines littered on the lineup of this Salt Lake City showcase, Prime Picks very nearly followed the same gimmick of UFC 305 by calling for four upsets. Instead, even though Khalil Rountree could punch out Alex Pereira and Aldo could pull another rabbit out of the hat, we walk on the wildest of sides by suggesting a flier on one of the largest betting upsets in promotional history. The two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo would like to get her hands on Vieira early and often, and she excels at doing just that. Vieira will need to stay on her feet, forcing Harrison to exert excess energy looking for throws and trips. Harrison’s striking is a means to an end, as she wings power punches to close the distance and clasp her hands around the opponent’s waist or back. The Brazilian is strong, and she could even turn the tables to put Harrison on her back during an exchange. This pairing is considerably closer than it appears on the sportsbooks, which makes it a choice option to throw down a small amount for a big score.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:
Cezar Almeida-Ihor Potieria Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-450)
Carla Esparza-Tecia Pennington Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-650)
Ryan Spann-Ovince St. Preux Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-300)
Total Odds: -114
With three moneyline suggestions above, it is only fair that props focusing on measures of time take over the accumulator. All three suggestions play on lines of 2.5 rounds, depending on whether a finish is expected or not. Pursuing these individually will not offer a decent return on investment, while all three combining for nearly even money is a much better option. The first of the three is the stoppage potential between Almeida and Potieria, as two middleweight knockout-centric competitors with finish rates of 80% and 75% smash together. Almeida struggled when taking a step up in competition against Dylan Budka, so he receives a much more reasonable bounce-back in the form of Ukraine’s Potieria, who has been put away in four of his last six. Whether Almeida exacts another modicum of revenge for countryman Mauricio “Shogun” Rua or “The Duelist” picks up a win for his home country, violence should be on full display in this all-offense affair.
One fight removed from a failed defense of her strawweight throne, Esparza tumbles all the way down from co-main event on a pay-per-view to the early prelims. It is a surprising amount of disrespect handed down towards the two-time champion, even if matchmaking is fair. Since making her splash by winning the 20th season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Esparza has not been much of a finisher. The same can be said for Pennington, who will be hoping to exact revenge after getting bounced out of the quarterfinals of that reality show thanks to Esparza. Both ladies sport one knockout and one submission win on their UFC ledgers, with decisions accounting for the other 15. Women this year in the Octagon have only won inside the distance in about a quarter of their bouts, making this a solid anchor.
Dating back eight fights in four years, Spann has involved the judges one time, in a close one against Anthony Smith. On the other side of the equation, now over the age of 40, “OSP” has seen four of six go to the scorecards in that same span. At this weight, durability is not part of the conversation, especially when it comes to these two finishers. Spann hits like a truck, and St. Preux remains opportunistic even as he has slowed getting older. When these two end things, it tends to be early, with just two stoppages beyond 12:30 in their combined 38 victories before the final bell. Whether Spann gets back on track or St. Preux plays spoiler, it should not involve the judges.