Carlos Diego Ferreira (-165)
In the pay-per-view opener, I like Ferreira (15-2) to get his hand raised over Francisco Trinaldo (23-6) in what should be an excellent fight between veteran lightweights. Ferreira has looked tremendous as of late as he’s currently riding a four-fight win streak that includes a big upset win over Rustam Khabilov his last time out. He’s a tremendous grappler, but his striking has also improved drastically over the years and he has plenty of knockout power to finish his fights. Although 34, Ferreira fights like he’s a lot younger than his age and seems to be making up for lost time after missing two years due to a USADA suspension. He now gets the opportunity to jump into the rankings with a win over Trinaldo in this battle between Brazilians. "Massaranduba" is 40-years-old now and although he’s coming off of a knockout win over Evan Dunham, at some point father time is going to catch up with him. Before the win over Dunham, the veteran had lost two of three fights and appeared to be on a decline. I’m not convinced beating a shot Dunham means he’s back. Trinaldo has put together a very nice career inside the Octagon, but I don’t like this matchup for him against a younger and more well-rounded fighter with better cardio in Ferreira. It’s going to be a competitive fight for sure, but I see Ferreira getting his hand raised and the -165 odds on him to get the win seem about right.
Laureano Staropoli (-115)
In a fight with Pick ‘em odds, I’m going with the young welterweight prospect Staropoli (8-1) to defeat veteran Thiago Alves (23-13). Just 26, “El Matador” is currently riding a six-fight win streak into this matchup that includes a “Fight of the Night” decision win over Hector Aldana in his Ultimate Fighting Championship debut. The Argentinian is a very solid striker with knockout power and the organization is clearly are very high on him as they are giving him this prime slot opposite Alves on the PPV main card. With a win over the Brazilian, Staropoli could be placed on the fast-track up the welterweight division ladder. “Pitbull” is one of the most experienced veterans at 170, but he appears to be on the decline at age 35. Before winning a controversial split decision over Max Griffin in his last fight that will be in the discussion for “Robbery of the Year” at the end of 2019, Alves had lost back-to-back fights to Alexey Kunchenko and Curtis Millender. He hasn’t finished an opponent since way back in 2015 when he stopped Jordan Mein with a kick to the body and would be on a three-fight losing skid if it wasn’t for the hometown judges in Brazil helping him out against Griffin. The veteran has had a solid career, but at this point, he has to be faded against a younger and hungrier fighter in Staropoli.
Raoni Barcelos (-550)
There are quite a few heavy favorites on this card, but the one I would recommend the most for a parlay is Barcelos (13-1), who takes on UFC newcomer Carlos Huachin (10-3-1) in a bantamweight fight. Barcelos is a very well-rounded fighter who is currently riding a six-fight win streak, including a 2-0 mark in the UFC with finishes over Kurt Holobaugh and Chris Gutierrez. The former Resurrection Fighting Alliance bantamweight champion hails from Brazil and will have the hometown crowd cheering him on the entire time and considering his ability to finish fights he should have plenty of motivation to go out there and stop Huachin in devastating fashion. "Perro Malo" took this fight on just one week’s notice, filling in for the injured Said Nurmagomedov. Just 22, Huachin hails from Peru and rides a seven-fight unbeaten streak into the Octagon, so there’s certainly some promise here. However, his level of competition has been very subpar to date and Barcelos is by far the toughest fight of his career. I expect this to be a blowout in the favor of the veteran and see him finishing the fight by stoppage. The -550 line on Barcelos is high, but you can use it to beef up a parlay.
Kurt Holobaugh (+120)
For a dog pick, give me Holobaugh (17-6, 1 NC) to upset Thiago Moises (11-3) in a battle between lightweights looking for a win. Although Holobaugh is coming off of back-to-back losses to Shane Burgos and Raoni Barcelos, he’s a talented fighter who is due for his first win in the UFC. The Louisiana native has struggled in the Octagon over the years, going 0-3 over separate two stints in the UFC, but on the regional scene, he’s always been very successful and was even a former champion in Titan Fighting Championships. Moving back up to lightweight should help him out here as he just wasn’t suited for the featherweight division. He’s not getting an easy fight here against Moises, but it’s a fight the American can win. Moises (11-3) lost a decision to Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut and was pretty much dominated the entire fight. That loss really exposed his takedown defense and it’s something Holobaugh could potentially take advantage of. Although the Brazilian is fighting at home, Holobaugh has a good chance pull off the upset here as he’s the more well-rounded mixed martial artist. I don’t see too many upsets happening on this card, but this is one of them. At +120 odds it’s worth taking a shot on the underdog.
Adam Martin is a mixed martial arts journalist who has been covering the sport since 2011. He is currently the lead odds analyst for Sherdog.com as well as the lead staff writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Adam is also the co-host of “The Parting Shot Podcast” on iTunes. His favorite fight of all time is Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua and he wishes Pride never died. Adam is based out of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and he is a graduate of the University of Toronto and Centennial College. Get in touch with him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.