The Professional Fighters League trots out more titles than an organization can shake a stick at, with a mind-boggling 10 championship affairs from start to finish on Friday morning in America. The event, aired locally for audiences in the Middle East, will have fight fans stateside enjoying breakfast with their beatdowns, with everyone who watches hoping the champions do not need the full 250 minutes of combat time to decide the outcomes. The PFL 2024 Season Championships edition of Prime Picks checks in with a time-based accumulator, a reality check for a hot prospect and one more disappointing run for a longtime PFL vet.
DOUBLE PLAY (-175)
Brendan Loughnane-Timur Khizriev Lasts Over 3.5 Rounds (-450)
Shamil Musaev-Magomed Umalatov Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-350)
With four of the six main title tilts presenting the favorite with odds above -250, we have to dig deep for some good value. On the first of our three Prime Picks for this PFL party in Saudi Arabia, time is of the essence. Time is the season. Time ain’t no reason, got no time to slow. Loughnane and Khizriev will be burning for you in the main attraction, one that looks like could last a while. The Brit is fully capable of shutting the lights out of someone early, but the tough, undefeated Dagestani standing in front of him might have something to say about that. When it comes to Khizriev, he takes his time to measure his openings and attacks. Whether it is to set up his takedowns or to use those takedowns to allow for him to connect on the feet, the word “methodical” suits him well. This all points to a match that will go at least into the midpoint of Round 4, and we will learn of their championship-level conditioning after that time.
The other half of this two-piece is a bout that could also turn into a wrestling match before long. It is statistically shocking that Musaev and Umalatov post exactly 17 wins apiece, with equal finish rates of 76% courtesy of 11 knockouts and two submissions. On paper, the Russians appear evenly matched. When digging a bit deeper, Musaev seems to be more aggressive of the two, starting out hot and cooling down if he cannot get the job done. On the other hand, Umalatov is slow and steady but also capable of a one-hitter quitter if the opportunity presents itself. There may be a bit of danger that this parlay crashes and burns if one of these two welterweights rolls in overconfident, but the smart play is that this goes long enough—at least seven minutes and 30 seconds—until one figures the other out and takes over.
Taila Santos (+325)
Given her momentum and the ease in which she has been tearing through opponents on the European and global scene, it is not entirely a surprise that Dakota Ditcheva will come into this pairing as a noteworthy betting favorite. What will come as a shock is just how much confidence bettors have in “Dangerous Dakota” given the tremendous step up in competition from Jena Bishop to a woman in Santos who arguably beat Valentina Shevchenko fairly recently. It is a far cry from the likes of Lisa Mauldin and Chelsea Hackett, both of whom were unable to hack it to even get to the UFC thus far. Unfair as it might be to pull the thread of her flyweight resume, Ditcheva has not beaten a woman that currently holds a PFL record above .500. Strength of schedule matters when it comes to preparing for big fights, as the lower-level competition may not be able to present the kind of adversity that Ditcheva needs to encounter and overcome. Santos can give her all that and a bag of chips.
Even with a decision and a third-round stoppage on her resume, the gas tank of Ditcheva is very much in question. What happens if she cannot get off strikes freely like usual, flowing as she breaks foes down to the body? Santos is not the kind of opponent who will shy away from an exchange, and she has clubbing power to retaliate and keep Ditcheva honest. Additionally, Santos’ grappling chops are an additional threat, because few have grounded Ditcheva and even fewer have kept her on the mat for a time. Should Santos land the takedown—she is quite capable of trapping Ditcheva on her back for three minutes, all while pummeling her with ground-and-pound—it could be a new fight entirely. Ditcheva could prove to be the real deal, and passing this test is a massive one in terms of her immediate future and stardom. The Brazilian, however, has just what it takes to rain on her parade.
Oleg Popov (-140)
At this rate, Denis Goltsov will forever be the bridesmaid in the PFL’s heavyweight division. Last year, we called on the Russian to get the job done, only for Renan Ferreira to blonk him on the chin early in the second round. While Goltsov had good moments, successfully taking the towering Brazilian down and beating on him for most the round, any momentum came to a screeching halt with one big right hand from “Problema.” Luckily for Goltsov, he will not be encountering a 6-foot-8 lanky, awkward striker who hits like a Ford Tempo. Instead, he battles a significantly shorter, stockier wrestle-boxer who can grind his way to victory like the best of them. The level of competition for Goltsov has been consistently higher than Popov, who has fought on a major stage on just four occasions but has proven his talent thus far.
It will be on Goltsov to keep his back away from the cage, using his longer limbs to pump out his effective jab and stave off the predictable takedown coming his direction. On paper, he hits harder, is quicker and has more ways to win, given that he, too, can wrestle. However, “The Russian Bogatyr” is susceptible to getting overwhelmed by the right kind of adversary, one who maintains a constant pressure while never staying still long enough to get popped. Popov is just the foil for Goltsov to send him away with another disappointing championship defeat, as he grinds and wrestles his way to a win. Every round starts on the feet, but Popov will quickly realize that takedowns are getting easier to complete as time elapses. Unless Goltsov can flip the script and put his streaking countryman on his back or catch him coming in with the right blow, Popov can take his counterpart’s best weapons away and nullify him as the crowd goes mild.