Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.
* * *
The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday touches down in unfamiliar territory, where Valentina Shevchenko will collide with Liz Carmouche at UFC Fight Night 156.
Who Has the Most to Gain?
Liz Carmouche: Following back-to-back victories in a brand-new division, Carmouche finds herself face-to-face with Valentina Shevchenko for the second time in her career; this time for the Ultimate Fighting Championship women’s flyweight championship. Carmouche is coming into this bout as a significant underdog, but if she can make the fight ugly, in a similar vein to her storied brawl with Ronda Rousey, a path to victory can be found. While Shevchenko is technically sound wherever a fight may take place, over a long career Carmouche has become adept in taking advantage of awkward grappling transitions and becoming opportunistic when it counts. In her first five-round bout since 2013, look for Carmouche to be glued to her opponent early in an attempt to grind it out against the fence and eat away at the clock. “Girl-rilla” would be wise to avoid the powerful kicks of the champion and if she can utilize her strengths, she may just complete the Cinderella story she began over six years ago.
Vicente Luque: After countless highlight-reel stoppages for Luque, one may wonder why he hasn’t received the full push of the UFC hype machine just yet. In the first co-main event of the Hard Knocks 365 team member, he has a chance to put the naysayers to bed along with Mike Perry. While Perry may not be the model of consistency in the UFC, he undoubtedly brings with him a cult following, and is the perfect matchup to propel Luque further into the Top 15 and a win on Saturday should get people talking. Luque brings with him one of the most well-rounded games in all of the welterweight division, coupling technical boxing with an aggressive submission set. It seems to only be a matter of time until the Luque hype train finally arrives at the station.
Gilbert Burns: After seeing great success in the UFC’s lightweight division, it seems “Durinho” has had more trouble with the scale than he has his opposition and with that has decided to take his talents to the welterweight division, where he draws undefeated Russian standout Alexey Kunchenko. Burns should view this fight as a great opportunity: Kunchenko is undefeated in 20 career bouts and if Burns could snuff that flame it would send an ominous message to his new division. Burns is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace and would be wise to tie his opponent up early and often, hunting for submissions whenever possible. Kunchenko is a standout boxer and will be comfortable looking to trade on the feet with Burns. While Burns has obliged opponents in the past, his welterweight debut is not one where he should be straying too far from his bread and butter.
Who Has the Most to Lose?
Valentina Shevchenko: Coming in as a massive favorite over her opponent, for many it has become a foregone conclusion that Shevchenko is going to walk into the Octagon Saturday night and trounce her opponent with ease -- but Shevchenko would be prudent to not underestimate the veteran prowess of Carmouche. Over a long career, Carmouche has become quite adept at dragging her opponents into deep water and making fights an ugly, grinding affair. Shevchenko is going to have to be at her best on Saturday night and she better bring her running shoes. Shevchenko is best when fighting from her back-foot, making her opponent walk into her piston-like jab and bone-rattling body kicks. Shevchenko is a smooth operator, excelling at playing it cool under pressure. Look for her to maintain her cold-as-ice demeanor in what will be her second career title defense.
Mike Perry: Despite a lack of consistency, Perry has become the gold standard of entertainment, churning out brawl after barnburner since the short-notice contest that landed him in the Octagon. Largely due to this, Perry has seen a massive push from the UFC brass landing high-caliber opponents before he may have been ready such as Donald Cerrone and Santiago Ponzinibbio. If Perry can’t dispatch of Luque Saturday, it may be the last time we see the Florida native perform against top-level competition. While Perry is all-action, the time has come to put up or shut up and if he is ever going to be a contender in the UFC, he’s going to have to show it in what I believe to be the most important fight of his career thus far. What Perry has going for him is a wealth of knockout power, a solid chin and an ever-lasting supply of grit and heart. Perry will undoubtedly look to keep the contest standing, where he has the best chance at landing one of his signature knockout blows.
Volkan Oezdemir: Oezdemir started his UFC tenure on fire with a 3-0 start, all bouts being finished before the third round. Since then, Oezdemir has gone on to lose his last three, the most recent being a controversial loss to Dominick Reyes. In spite of this, Oezdemir finds himself on the chopping block and in desperate need of a win. Look for “No-Time” to go head-hunting on Saturday. If he can weather the early storm of Ilir Latifi, he has a much better chance at getting his hand raised as the fight wears on. A win here for Oezdemir either jump-starts a new run toward the upper echelon of the light-heavyweight division, while a loss likely sees him heading toward a collision course with free agency.