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WHO HAS THE MOST TO GAIN?
Justin Gaethje: Mere weeks ago, he was at home self-quarantining like the rest of the country before getting the call to fight Tony Ferguson for an interim lightweight title on short notice; and in the blink of an eye, the opportunity to strike gold was in sight. Gaethje admitted he was entering the fight with “about 15 minutes of hell” in him. In short, expect him to forego any feeling-out process and attack Ferguson from bell to bell in search of a finish. After suffering the first two losses of his career in consecutive appearances, Gaethje has gone on a three-fight tear, knocking out James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone to put himself near the top of the heap in a crowded lightweight division. While Gaethje will be at an obvious disadvantage due to a shortened training camp, his more measured approach to the sport of late has turned “The Highlight” into a well-rounded competitor and a nightmare for nearly everyone in the 155-pound weight class. Do not be surprised to see Gaethje play spoiler and leave Florida with a belt around his waist, with an eye toward Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Dominick Cruz: Coming off of close to a four-year layoff, the former bantamweight champion’s immediate title shot at Henry Cejudo left many observers scratching their heads. A long list of worthy contenders has piled up at 135 pounds, but Cruz’s combination of familiarity and pedigree tipped the scales in his favor when Jose Aldo was forced to withdraw. Cruz’s mantra has always been “ring rust isn’t real,” and his upset of T.J. Dillashaw in January 2016 proved as much. However, against Cejudo, the cards appear to be stacked against “The Dominator.” If the Cruz of old shows up, shows out and makes use of his unorthodox footwork and movement, he also can play spoiler in Florida and leave the Octagon as a three-time UFC champion. He can ill afford to lose here, as it could be the last time he gets an opportunity to fight for a title.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik: In a fight he was losing on all scorecards late into the fifth round, Rozenstruik pulled off the unthinkable and delivered a lip-splitting blow to Alistair Overeem that took him from intriguing prospect to legitimate contender. The UFC has responded by matching him with an equally terrifying striker—Francis Ngannou—in a heavyweight showcase that could give rise to the next championship challenger. A talented and powerful kickboxer, Rozenstruik will find himself at a distinct size disadvantage against the Cameroon-born Frenchman. The key: Get inside on Ngannou and land heavy punches at close range. Another win for Rozenstruik could put him in line for “Breakout Fighter of the Year” honors.
WHO HAS THE MOST TO LOSE?
Tony Ferguson: For what seems like the millionth time, the ever-elusive Ferguson-Nurmagomedov title match vanished like a fart in the wind, leaving “El Cucuy” to fight for an interim championship instead—a far less appealing proposition, especially against someone as dangerous as Gaethje. Ferguson needs to stick to what brought him to the dance and look to drag Gaethje into deeper water and exploit the former World Series of Fighting champion’s lack of a full training camp. Awkward angles and a diverse arsenal of strikes will likely Ferguson’s go-to weapons, as he tries to keep Gaethje guessing and put strain on what has been a questionable gas tank in the past. If Ferguson’s 12-fight winning streak proves anything, it is that he excels at manipulating weaknesses.
Henry Cejudo: With worthy contenders like Aljamain Sterling, Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen waiting in the wings, Cejudo instead draws Cruz in a co-main event that has many concerned with the developing backlog in the bantamweight division. However, Cejudo sees his title defense against “The Dominator” as a legacy builder on his way to becoming one of the best fighters of all-time. With that said, this is risky business for the onetime Olympic gold medalist. Cruz’s unorthodox style remains difficult to nail down, and when you mix in his above-average wrestling with top-notch cardio, it seems unlikely Cejudo will be as successful wearing on him as he was Marlon Moraes. Cejudo would be wise to lean on his wrestling skills instead of chasing the Alliance MMA mainstay around the cage. Looking to finish with strikes could prove to be a costly mistake.
Francis Ngannou: Three consecutive first-round knockouts, two of them of the sub-minute variety, have moved Ngannou back to the front of the pack in a bid to secure a second shot at the UFC heavyweight title. If circumstances were different and the Stipe Miocic-Daniel Cormier rubber match had been settled, Ngannou likely would have found himself vying for the crown right now. Sitting on Cloud 9 after an impressive resurgence, “The Predator” must be wary not to return to old habits in his pivotal showdown with the undefeated Rozenstruik. Though not as physically imposing as the Cameroon-born Frenchman, Rozenstruik possesses a level of technique Nagnnou does not, affording him more avenues through which to attack. A punishing clinch, seasoned with some grappling and distance control, could provide Ngannou with his path to victory, provided he can steer clear of the weaponry his counterpart brings to the table.