John Brannigan/Sherdog.com illustration
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To understand complicated systems, whether in MMA or physics, it helps to look at extremes. For the former, an illuminating specimen is Charles Oliveira. Oliveira may well be the most physically talented fighter in MMA history. He is significantly more talented than legends like Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Other phenoms like Demetrious Johnson, Brock Lesnar and even Jose Aldo—whom I consider the greatest fighter ever—are not as physically gifted. The only two fighters who are even in the same conversation as Oliveira are A.J. McKee and Jon Jones. And yet, at 33 years old, Oliveira has already lost nine times during his career, eight of them by stoppage, and while a great champion, is unlikely to be remembered as one of the 20 best fighters ever, let alone top 10. Why? The answer tells us a lot about current high-level MMA.
Oliveira is a maxed-out video game character made flesh. He is ridiculously fast in his movement and fists alike, with almost every opponent moving in slow motion by comparison. The Brazilian is also deadly accurate and possesses tremendous power, whether in his strikes or grappling. He is one of the best BJJ guys in MMA, a very good wrestler and a downright great striker. Like McKee and Jones, interestingly enough, Oliveira is long and lean yet has brutal physical strength, able to overpower and ragdoll more compact, powerfully built, muscular foes. When I watch tape on fighters, I pay exhaustive attention to their technique. Frequently, even great champions possess small flaws in how they throw a jab or overhand right, or run the pipe on a single-leg takedown. Yes, even McKee and Jones. But I've never come across anyone like Oliveira. He does everything flawlessly, whether a left hook, head kick, double-leg or guillotine. It's astounding to behold and makes my hairs stand on end.
So again, how the hell does this guy ever lose, let alone nine times? As with a prime Jones or the current McKee, it doesn't seem that most of Oliveira's foes even deserve to be in the same cage as him. Speaking of which, let's examine his fight against Paul Felder from December 2017, his fourth loss in a six-fight stretch before he went on a long winning streak. I consider it one of the most fascinating battles in MMA history, and essential viewing for anyone trying to understand the sport. How did Felder, a man far worse than Oliveira in every single aspect of fighting, without an iota of his talent, end up demolishing the Brazilian, leaving him a broken and battered mess late in the second round? It is because we have yet to mention one of the most important aspects of fighting: the mind. It is not true that Felder had no advantage over Oliveira. In fact, he had exactly one. Felder was ridiculously tough and never gave up, yet was still smart and disciplined, maximizing his chances of winning. Oliveira at that point in his career was mentally fragile, becoming discouraged if his overwhelming physical talent didn't dominate the opponent. He often made poor tactical decisions because, being so damn talented, he could mostly get away with it. In the first round, Oliveira realized he had an advantage striking and also could have easily kept and maintained top position on the ground. Instead, he decided to hunt for a spectacular submission. This not only caused him to give up top position but was also extremely exhausting, as he would squeeze with everything he had on each attempt. There is a reason Nurmagomedov prioritizes top position and makes sure to crush foes with ground-and-pound first, only attempting submissions later in the fight, and very high-percentage ones at that. Oliveira's attempts to get the first-round submission failed, and he was left both tired and discouraged. When Round 2 began, matters were far more equal. Cardio is the great equalizer and being tired can wipe away huge advantages in talent, as the first Amanda Nunes-Julianna Pena fight demonstrated. As Felder was more confident than ever, landing elbows in the clinch and grappling successfully with him, the Brazilian wilted even further. Ultimately, he ended up succumbing to his fate, eating ground-and-pound until the fight was waved off. Toughness and intelligence had overcome talent.
I have the highest respect for Oliveira, because after that devastating loss, he massively improved his mental game and went on a legendary 11-fight winning streak that completely changed his career. There were difficult moments in those victories, like almost being knocked out in the first round against Michael Chandler, the protracted toe-to-toe war against Dustin Poirier and the insanity of the Justin Gaethje bout. However, Oliveira showed toughness and perseverance throughout, while generally making the right tactical decisions.
However, the ghosts of Oliveira's previous mental weakness were not completely excised. They were merely banished to the furthest corners of his mind. Against the right opponent, someone who could put him under massive pressure and take him to that same brutal, hopeless place, the specters would be unleashed again. And that is where Islam Makhachev comes in. He is very physically talented of course, though not to the level of Oliveira. But while Makhachev may not have a perfect 100/100 rating in terms of physical talent, he is very close to that on the mental side. His pressure is unrelenting and ever-present, suffocating opponents. Having a degree of success against Makhachev means nothing because he simply never gets discouraged. He keeps on putting opponents in difficult positions round after round, and eventually they crack. Never mind that he crafts brilliant game plans with none other than Nurmagomedov and then executes them to perfection. Against such a high degree of mental mastery, Oliveira didn't just lose, he was dominated, with all the old doubts and failings returning with a vengeance.
Most recently, Oliveira scored another spectacular victory over Beneil Dariush this past weekend at UFC 289. He experienced early adversity, being taken down, but did not get discouraged, rising to his feet and soon cracking Dariush with a perfect head kick that led to the finish. Can he beat Makhachev in a second attempt? I wouldn't rule it out; overwhelming talent always presents a danger. But as we've seen, even being the most gifted fighter ever isn't enough. Such phenoms will still lose, often in one-sided fashion, if their mental game, a combination of toughness and intelligence, isn't up to scratch. Modern high-level MMA, more than ever before, is a mental battle as much as a physical one.