Lightweights
Chase Hooper (14-3-1, 6-3 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (38-24, 18-18 UFC)Guida persists. It has now been over 18 years since “The Carpenter” made his UFC debut and about 13 years since his peak, but while he has slowed down by multiple degrees, Guida has done an amazing job of remaining consistently tough. Back around the turn of 2010s, Guida’s ability to set a pace was unmatched. Combined with his elite durability and dogged wrestling game, that made Guida one of the most frustrating challenges in the sport, as opponents who could beat him still had to go through multiple rounds of absolute hell. Guida has continued to slow down while the general pace of the sport has picked up, but the durability and the gas tank remain stout. Guida isn’t even that strong of a wrestler anymore, but his sheer persistence in trying things while refusing to go away has made for some surprisingly competitive and entertaining bouts, even if he’s racking up about two losses for each win. In an amusing bit of matchmaking, one of the UFC’s most veteran lightweights takes on the eternally youthful Hooper, who, at 25 years old, is no longer a wunderkind but has developed into a solid prospect.
Hooper made his name as a lanky and crafty grappler whose lack of defense has been a clear liability, but after absorbing some rough beatings through the sheer durability of youth, “The Dream” has come out the other side as a surprisingly effective fighter. Hooper still doesn’t have much defense to his game, but he has at least learned to strike with confidence. Add in his long frame and the threat of his grappling, and it has been enough to overwhelm opponents who should theoretically be capable of returning fire. See Viacheslav Borshchev, who got swamped and submitted by Hooper in May. Guida’s submission defense has always been a liability, even at his peak, so this seems like a fairly clean setup for a Hooper win. Even if he can’t stun Guida enough to earn an outright club-and-sub stoppage, enough of this fight figures to take place on the mat that Hooper can find something effective enough to end it. The pick is Hooper via first-round submission.
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