Welterweights
Warlley Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Nicolas Dalby (20-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC)Alves’ career is probably more known for its potential than anything else at this point, but he should still provide a fun fight in this appearance. Alves ran through his competition on the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” back in 2014, establishing himself immediately as a top prospect to watch. However, his first post-reality series fight against Alan Jouban immediately raised some red flags. Alves walked away with a narrow decision win but looked exhausted once he found himself unable to get an early finish. That did not matter for a few more fights, as Alves continued to prove himself as an explosive finisher, including an 86-second submission of Colby Covington to cap 2015. However, the following year saw Alves drop drawn-out fights to Bryan Barberena and Kamaru Usman, after which the book was clearly out on the Brazilian. Alves tried to correct those issues by pacing himself but found mixed results, so his last few bouts have mostly seen him return to his quick-finish-or-bust ways. After missing all of 2022, Alves looks to get back in the win column at home against Dalby, who continues to have a solid second act in the UFC. Dalby came to the UFC in 2015 with a decent amount of hype and beat Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his debut, but he was surprisingly unable to find a win in his next three fights and quickly slid out of the promotion. After overcoming struggles with alcohol and depression while back on the regional scene, Dalby has gotten himself in excellent shape and come back as a much better fighter, even if he has had a strange run of results. A 2020 win over Daniel Rodriguez has aged quite well, but it came off a quick finish at the hands of Jesse Ronson—a bizarre outlier given Dalby’s historical reliance on his persistence and durability. That result raises some hope that Alves can find another quick finish, but Dalby’s overall career suggests he is stout enough to weather the early going and grind out a victory. The pick is Dalby via decision.
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