Preview: UFC 281 Prelims

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Bantamweights

Montel Jackson (11-2, 5-2 UFC) vs. Julio Arce (18-5, 5-3 UFC)

ODDS: Jackson (-200), Arce (+170)

It is a testament to the embarrassment of riches at bantamweight that these two talents remain under the radar. Jackson is obviously someone to watch, though matchmaking and inactivity have made it a bit hard to tell where “Quik” fits at this point in his career. Extremely inexperienced upon his UFC debut in 2018, Jackson has been able to rely on his considerable physical gifts to see him through learning on the job. Both a powerful wrestler and a rangy striker, Jackson can cause a ton of damage when given the opportunity. However, the cracks do a show a bit when Jackson is forced to react and mix different phases of his game together. In his two losses to Ricky Simon and Brett Johns, Jackson was mostly kept on his toes against opponents willing to press aggression and various forms of offense. Since losing to Johns over two years ago, there has been precious little data as to how Jackson has progressed. Late opponent switches left him to take on Jesse Strader and J.P. Buys—winnable fights on paper that also proved to be such in practice. It is finally time for Jackson to get another true challenge after over a yearlong layoff. Arce has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights, which feels about right for the New Yorker. A smart fighter and jack of all trades, Arce lacks the one real standout skill to put him over the hump as a true contender. His last two fights essentially tell the story. He looked fine enough but faced a constant losing battle against elite athlete and knockout threat in Yadong Song, but he met with the much more straightforward gameplan of Daniel Santos in April, consistently outmaneuvered the Brazilian and put together a sharp win. If Arce had the physicality to effectively push a wrestling game, that might be enough of a mix-up to give him the nod in this one. As it is, this should be a fun striking match in which Jackson’s considerable reach and potential for power should keep him ahead in terms of effective offense. The pick is Jackson via decision.

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