Preview: UFC 205 ‘Alvarez vs. McGregor’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: This card has a lot of tempting lines for the penny-pinching bettor, but few that I would really recommend betting the house on. I am going to go ahead and tap Frankie Edgar by decision as the choice prop here. Jeremy Stephens is tough as nails but very unlikely to stop the nigh-invulnerable Edgar, who continues to improve defensively. At -130, it is not a stellar line, but there are very few stellar lines on this card. Other than that, see the “live dog” suggestion below for more ideas, but seriously, bet small. This card is too well-matched to go throwing money at it.

LIVE DOG: Michael Johnson. “The Menace” is by far the most tempting underdog on this card, sitting pretty at +227. Khabib Nurmagomedov looked a little rough in his last outing, and though ring rust was partly to blame, the difficulty of facing a rangy striker played a part. Nurmagomedov has never beaten an out-fighter with solid takedown defense, and that is Johnson’s M.O. Nurmagomedov deserves to be favored, but Johnson might deserve a few bucks at the current odds.

SURE THING: Miesha Tate. The loss to Amanda Nunes did not show Tate in a particularly flattering light, but that was always going to be a tough first round for “Cupcake,” a habitual slow-starter. This time around, she faces a less experienced and much less dangerous opponent. I like Raquel Pennington, but I do not see this one going well for her. Tate is currently listed as a -180 favorite. Not bad, all things considered.

CAN’T MISS: You were already going to watch Eddie Alvarez-Conor McGregor and Joanna Jedrzejczyk-Karolina Kowalkiewicz, so I will not bother recommending those fights. Instead, I encourage you to watch Donald Cerrone and Kelvin Gastelum go at it. Both men are action fighters and finishers, and the style matchup should leave nothing to the imagination. The three title fights are a great main course, but this is one hell of an aperitif. Watch this fight and enjoy.

SMOKE BREAK: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Liz Carmouche. I have my eye on Chookagian as a prospect with a scientific style, so I will be watching this fight. In all likelihood, however, it will be a slow, thoughtful affair. Most people can enjoy that when they know the fighters, but neither Carmouche nor Chookagian have earned widespread attention yet, so I predict widespread indifference to this bout. Unfortunately, situated as it is at the start of the Fight Pass prelims, skipping this fight will not give you a chance to make a beer run or tip the pizza man who has been waiting at your door for 20 minutes. Then again, this is UFC 205, so stop complaining.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.