Preview: UFC on ESPN 4 ‘Dos Anjos vs. Edwards’
Tom FeelyJul 17, 2019
Featherweights
Alex Caceres (14-12, -155) vs. Steven Peterson (17-8, +135): Caceres has done well to make it to his 21st UFC fight given how raw he was when he started with the promotion, but he remains one of the roster’s most frustrating talents. “Bruce Leeroy” has a ton of physical gifts, but he seemingly has no willingness to dictate the terms of the fight, making him someone who can go to a narrow decision against both Yair Rodriguez and Martin Bravo. Even Caceres’ career-best performance a few years back against Cole Miller saw him give up huge swaths of the fight in one-sided fashion. Here, he will take on Texas’ Peterson, who has made a name for himself as a reliable action fighter who consistently moves forward and looks to put damage on his opponents. While it has made for some fun fights, Peterson is a limited athlete and a defensive sieve, so a win over Matt Bessette remains his only victory in three UFC outings. This should not be all that dissimilar to Caceres’ fight with Bravo, which saw him willingly engage in a brawl and narrowly come out on top. The pick is Caceres via decision, though this has split verdict written all over it and could easily go in the other direction.
Women’s Bantamweights
Irene Aldana (10-4, -160) vs. Raquel Pennington (9-7, +140): Aldana’s three-fight winning streak makes her one of the hottest fighters at 135 pounds, which is a bit of a surprise given that she was recently in danger of sliding completely off of the roster. Aldana came into the UFC as a deservedly hyped prospect due to her resume, exciting fight style and marketability as a Mexican fighter, but she immediately had her issues laid bare by Leslie Smith, who overwhelmed her with consistent pressure and took a one-sided decision. That has been Aldana’s main problem. She is a well-practiced boxer who looks technically sound, but once opponents adjust to her power and start moving forward, Aldana begins to get flustered once she cannot scare off her opponent. She has slowly improved on that weakness, even if it has still arisen in wins over Lucie Pudilova and Bethe Correia, and she will look to finally get over the hump here. Pennington has transformed from a rugged brawler to a tough, well-rounded fighter, but once she found herself in the title picture, Amanda Nunes laid an extended beatdown on “Rocky” for four and a half rounds. On the plus side, Pennington did not seem to suffer too many ill effects in her next fight against Germaine de Randamie, but losses to Nunes and de Randamie showed that Pennington’s athleticism gives her a hard ceiling. At some point, Pennington’s pressure should cause issues for Aldana that will only get worse as the fights goes on. The pick is Pennington via decision, even if Aldana could land some hard shots to make it close.
Light Heavyweights
Klidson Abreu (14-3, -160) vs. Sam Alvey (33-12, +140): Middleweights finding new life at light heavyweight has been a hot trend, but things have not worked out so well for “Smilin’ Sam.” His low-output counter game just has not translated up 20 pounds. Alvey is still plodding enough that he has not seen much benefit in terms of additional speed, and his power at light heavyweight is not scaring off opponents, leaving him to get hit by punches that he also has a harder time taking. Marcin Prachnio and Gian Villante were more than willing to play right into Alvey’s hands, but knockout losses to two opponents at different ends of the light heavyweight spectrum -- crusty veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and raw prospect Jim Crute -- left Alvey trying to answer some hard questions. He will look to rebound against Abreu, who showed little in his February debut against Magomed Ankalaev. Abreu is a wild and willing striker, but he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu player by trade and could provide some issues for Alvey if he aggressively hunts takedowns. However, if this remains standing for any amount of time, Abreu’s aggressive and defensively lacking enough that Alvey should be able to get the fight that he wants. The pick is Alvey via first-round knockout, though a loss here would be quite damning.
Women’s Flyweights
Jennifer Maia (16-5-1, -135) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (23-15, +115): Somehow, Modafferi remains as relevant as ever. She did not figure to have a style that would age well as the women’s MMA scene grew, and indeed, by the turn of the last decade, Modafferi went on a six-fight losing streak that exposed her as both a total non-athlete and a one-dimensional submission artist. However, a camp change and a cut down to flyweight has worked miracles. Modafferi’s grappling plays much better at 125 pounds, and while it is not pretty, she has developed a herky-jerky striking style that has been enough to keep her competitive. Coming off of an upset win over top prospect Antonina Shevchenko, Modafferi was slated to face Liz Carmouche in a top contender’s bout that somehow had never happened over the course of either woman’s career. With Carmouche shifted to a title fight against Valentina Shevchenko in August, Modafferi now gets the chance to avenge a 2016 loss to Maia. More well-rounded than anything, Maia possesses some strong grappling and a willingness to throw big power shots, which was enough to neutralize Modafferi and earn a narrow decision over five rounds the last time the two met. That dynamic has not changed much. Modafferi is mostly able to win by taking advantage of her opponent’s lack of physicality or knowledge in the grappling department, and Maia is both the stronger fighter and should be able to keep up. The pick is Maia via decision.
Bantamweights
Ray Borg (11-4, -270) vs. Gabriel Silva (8-0, +230): It has been a rough go for Borg. Since he was rushed into a one-sided loss to Demetrious Johnson in 2017, just about everything has gone wrong for “The Tazmexican Devil.” He was a victim of Conor McGregor’s infamous bus attack, his son battled brain cancer and he has had his own medical issues, all of which resulted in cancelled fight after cancelled fight. Once Borg was finally ready to make it back to the cage in March, his natural division had seemingly been shut down, leaving him to get outwrestled in a close decision defeat to Casey Kenney. A move up to 135 pounds was always going to be a tough ask for Borg. Even as a flyweight, he had struggled against longer fighters, and the Kenney loss suggests that his grappling will not play nearly as well against stronger opponents. Thankfully, the UFC seems to have reversed course and reopened flyweight, but for now, Borg is still booked at bantamweight against an Octagon newcomer. Silva -- he is the brother of former welterweight prospect Erick Silva -- earned a UFC contract in extremely 2019 fashion, returning from a two-year layoff to score an 83-second knockout in the Legacy Fighting Alliance and win over UFC President Dana White in the process. There is not a whole lot else in terms of relevant footage on Silva, but what is there at least makes him look like a decent and powerful wrestler, which might be enough to earn the upset over Borg. In a bit of a flier, the pick is Silva via decision. Hopefully Borg finds his way back to flyweight in short order, win or lose.
Bantamweights
Jin Soo Son (9-3, -200) vs. Mario Bautista (6-1, +170): This should be an entertaining war. Son is a protege of Chan Sung Jung, and he certainly lived up to that billing in his UFC debut, fighting like an insane person while going toe-to-toe with Petr Yan in an entertaining loss. He will look to get his first UFC win here against Bautista, who is an interesting and underrated prospect but probably in over his head. Bautista has a bunch of tools and fights aggressively, but in a late-notice spot against Cory Sandhagen, his lack of defense was completely exposed. Sandhagen essentially landed at will before chaining submissions and getting a victory. That probably will not get much better against Son, who is as pathologically aggressive as anyone on the roster and appears to have the physical strength to take over the fight anywhere against the reedy Bautista. Though Bautista should be game and hopefully he nets a third UFC fight whether he wins or loses, the pick is Son via second-round finish.
Bantamweights
Domingo Pilarte (8-1, -300) vs. Felipe Dias Colares (8-1, +250): After a long injury layoff, Pilarte finally makes his UFC debut, marking him as the last contract winner from Season 2 of Dana White’s Contender Series to set foot in the Octagon. Pilarte cannot help but cut an interesting figure as a 6-foot-tall bantamweight, and his Contender Series win was one of the more memorable of the season, as he earned a comeback submission after taking a beating from Vince Morales. Hopefully, things will go much easier this time around against Colares, who made his UFC debut in February. The Brazilian is an aggressive grinder but did not look particularly inspiring in a loss to Geraldo de Freitas Jr. Pilarte’s height might make for a rough time if Colares cannot get his wrestling going, but it seems likely that the Brazilian takes a bunch of punches to the face before he ever gets on track. The pick is Pilarte via first-round knockout.