Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Poirier vs. Johnson’

Featherweights

Gabriel Benitez (18-5) vs. Sam Sicilia (15-6): Benitez is a reductive fighter in a good way, whereas Sicilia is reductive to a fault. A southpaw, Benitez’s striking offense consists mostly of left straights and left round kicks, with a nice stinging jab to break his opponent’s rhythm. He moves well and understands how to time his man coming in. Sicilia is equally dependent on his own rear hand, but he lacks the subtleties that make Benitez’s bare-bones game so effective, telegraphing his shots. Sicilia is prone to planting his feet and trading with his chin exposed. Sicilia does have the ability to shoot for a takedown, which has proven effective against Benitez in the past, but Benitez has an excellent guard and is rapidly improving his ability to scramble and return to his feet when necessary. Unless Sicilia lands a bomb, expect Benitez to pick him apart. The pick is Benitez by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Antonio Carlos Jr. (5-2) vs. Leonardo Guimaraes (11-2): Carlos Jr. remains one of the best prospects in the middleweight division, but his surprising loss to Dan Kelly raises some meaningful questions about his current status and puts him in a dangerous position against a wild man like Guimaraes. Carlos Jr. is a massive middleweight with excellent timing on his takedowns and one of the best back-take games in the division. On the feet, however, he remains stiff and awkward, and he is prone to gassing. Guimaraes does not have Kelly’s judo skills to keep him on his feet, but he does have an extensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and stays calm in pure grappling exchanges, so he should be able to survive on the ground; and all the “Leleco” needs are a few seconds on the feet to take advantage of a tiring Carlos Jr. Guimaraes has a history of fighting bigger men, taking their best shots and storming back in the later rounds to get the win in true brawler fashion, aided by the fact that he hunts the body fiercely. If “Shoeface” looks the way he did in last fight, then expect Guimaraes to pour it on late and give him trouble. The pick is Guimaraes by third-round TKO.

Welterweights

Augusto Montano (15-2) vs. Belal Muhammad (9-1): Montano’s lone UFC performance, a three-round scuffle with Cathal Pendred, was truly one of the worst fights in the promotion’s history, while Muhammad’s debut with Alan Jouban was one of the most exciting in recent memory. There is more to a successful fighter than excitement, and indeed the best fighters can turn in less thrilling performances by utterly dominating their opponents. However, Montano’s fight with Pendred was not merely dull; it was frustrating. “Dodger” has good power in his hands and is willing to overwhelm an opponent with aggression, but by simply staying at range and threatening the takedown, Pendred was able to completely neuter his skill set. Muhammad’s smart jab and crisp power punching can do the same thing but with greater consequences. Montano may find some success if he tries to brawl the boxer, but it takes a certain amount of craft to do even that. The pick is Muhammad by third-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Jose Alberto Quinonez (4-2) vs. Joey Gomez (6-1): Neither Quinonez nor Gomez looked particularly good in their UFC debuts. Quinonez was handily outstruck by Alejandro Perez, looking awkward and hittable on the feet despite claiming a boxing background. Gomez was shut down by Rob Font, the likely result of a short-notice fight with one of the bantamweight division’s many top prospects. Quinonez has since redeemed himself, neatly submitting “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America” castmate Leonardo Morales in the first round, but his standup is a weak point yet and Gomez is the right man to poke holes in it. Gomez has a boxing-based game, and his approach is classic. He relies on a long jab and a cracking right hand, taking full advantage of his 73-inch reach. Gomez is also a capable scrambler with decent footwork to help him avoid tie-ups and takedowns. As long as Quinonez is stuck on the feet with Gomez, he will be wide open to the American’s straight punches and sneaky power. The pick is Gomez by second-round TKO.

Welterweights

Erick Montano (7-3) vs. Randy Brown (7-1): Brown passed a tough test in his UFC debut, but fellow prospect Michael Graves proved too much. Now the “Lookin’ for a Fight” discovery gets a softer touch. Montano does have some essential awkwardness in his favor. He tends to shift his feet in unpredictable ways, mixing side and round kicks with swinging hooks. When he punches, he wades forward with his head down, and he will use this posture to set up a takedown, though his wrestling technique, whether at range or in the clinch, leaves something to be desired. What Montano lacks is athleticism, Brown possesses in spades. At 6-foot-3 and with a 78-inch wingspan, Brown is tied for the tallest fighter in the division and owns the second longest reach. Though he lacks the wrestling background that made Jon Jones such a special force in his early days, Brown does have shocking speed for a man with his frame. His skill set is still developing, but even without a consistent jab or excellent defense, Brown can find ways to press Montano, wear him out and pick him apart. The pick is Brown by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Alejandro Perez (17-6) vs. Albert Morales (6-0): Morales is an exciting prospect, and it is fantastic to see him stepping up on short notice to replace Manny Gamburyan. Morales announced himself in June, stopping 10-1 Mario Israel in just 20 seconds at Resurrection Fighting Alliance 38. The 25-year-old has crisp hands and seems to stay centered well over his own feet, though he rarely moves his head in the pocket. He is a methodically aggressive grappler on the ground, with three submissions to his name. Perez is quite a step up, however, especially on short notice. There is very little that Perez does not do well, and his usual approach -- sticking and moving, chopping away with kicks and shooting for reactive takedowns -- seems well-suited to Morales’ aggressive style. Morales is dangerous enough to surprise Alejandro, but experience and craft are on the side of “El Diablito.” The pick is Perez by second-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.