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Legend
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.
LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
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BEST VALUE: Taylor Lapilus. Erik Perez is absolutely a tough matchup -- the toughest of Lapilus’ career, in fact -- but so far, the Frenchman has shown an incredible ability to rise to the occasion; and he should be able to follow Takeya Mizugaki’s movement-heavy, counterpunching game plan to a T, with even better takedown defense. With Lapilus at +100, what’s not to like?
LIVE DOG: Neil Magny. While Kelvin Gastelum is justifiably favored, I cannot help but think that a five-round fight favors Magny. The lanky welterweight has never gotten the chance to go five rounds, but his predilection for late finishes and seemingly bottomless gas tank suggest he would thrive in such a timeframe. Factor in Gastelum’s difficult weight cuts and suspect stamina, and Magny seems like a very live dog indeed, especially at +250 and higher.
SURE THING: Ricardo Lamas. This actually is not the worst matchup in the world for Diego Sanchez, but few matchups are good for him these days. Lamas is underrated and a talented finisher with a well-rounded game and a willingness to improve from fight to fight. It has been years since Sanchez has improved technically or strategically, and in fact, he seems to be trending in the opposite direction lately.
CAN’T MISS: Henry Cejudo vs. Jussier da Silva. If “Formiga” gets his way, this will be a relatively slow-paced fight, with the Brazilian picking his spots and sending straight punches through the hapless guard of his opponent. It is more likely that Cejudo pours on the volume for three straight rounds, eating his fair share of shots but delivering plenty, too, and brilliantly finding openings for strikes off of takedown attempts. He will have to watch his back, of course. No matter how it plays out, I expect this one to be tense and compelling viewing.
SMOKE BREAK: Efrain Escudero vs. Leandro Silva. I like Escudero, but he is not exactly reliable. His return to the UFC was downright disappointing. Even when Escudero wins, he can turn in some pretty methodical fights. On the other side of the cage, you have Silva, whose fighting style is in the midst of a very unappealing identity crisis. Whoever wins, this one is most likely going the distance, and it is not likely to be action-packed.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.