Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hendricks vs. Thompson’

Lightweights

Joshua Burkman (27-12) vs K.J. Noons (13-8): It is never a good sign when a veteran of 13 years suffers his first knockout defeat, especially when that fighter is 35 years old. It is also not a good sign when a career welterweight opts to drop to lightweight. It smacks of desperation, and if there is one thing that has not been shown to help an aging chin, it is losing 15 extra pounds of water. All of that would be a recipe for disaster against former pro boxer Noons -- if Burkman could not wrestle. Noons is not quite as good a boxer as the average commentator would have you believe, but he throws hard combinations and, thanks to better-than-average head movement, has no qualms about sitting in the pocket. His problem has always been his takedown defense and his general grappling ability on the ground. Burkman is typically the anti-wrestler, but he will have all the options in this matchup. Provided Patrick Cote did not crack his chin permanently, this is still Burkman’s fight to lose. He wins by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Derrick Lewis (13-4) vs Damian Grabowski (20-2): Grabowski’s resume is a rarity. Despite eight years as a heavyweight, the 35-year-old has never once been knocked out. That durability will be a blessing against Lewis, who has knocked out 12 of his 18 professional opponents. Lewis is extremely dangerous with his fists and covers distance with surprising speed to land his thunderous right hand. Despite a more composed approach in his last fight, however, Lewis is still a fairly one-dimensional fighter. Grabowski is a serviceable striker at best, but he knows how to use his hands to set up a solid double-leg. Often overaggressive on the ground, Grabowski will give up position going for power submissions, but he is an able scrambler and typically works his way back to the top. Going forward, Grabowski will struggle with heavyweights who clinch and press him against the fence, something he got away with in the more forgiving M-1 Global ring. However, Lewis is not one of those men. The pick is Grabowski by third-round submission.

Flyweights

Ray Borg (9-1) vs Justin Scoggins (10-2): Borg grapples with the mentality of a speed chess player. He constantly threatens and feints, switching from submissions to guard passes to strikes, always anticipating his opponent’s reaction. As he improves and gains experience, his striking is taking on much the same flavor, with jabs turning into hooks that turn into level changes that turn in kicks. Borg keeps a hellish pace and uses this constant pressure to keep himself one step ahead of the opponent. Scoggins is similarly brilliant in transitions. He uses distance and level changes to set up strikes, which in turn set up takedowns that lead to insane scrambles. Like Borg, Scoggins is dangerous in these scrambles. The key difference between these two men is that Borg is more than happy to stick to one position when necessary. He will slow the fight, tire out his opponent and wait for an opportunity to advance. His pressure is enhanced by patience. Scoggins, on the other hand, is almost completely reliant on transitions. Nippy exchanges are to be expected, but eventually Borg will lock down Scoggins and trap him in a methodical ground battle. When Borg does not allow transitions, Scoggins will become desperate to create them. Borg wins via third-round submission.

Featherweights

Noad Lahat (9-1) vs Diego Rivas (6-0): Both Lahat and Rivas are out-fighters; they like to fight either at long range or in close, never in between. The difference between them is one of experience and skill. Rivas is an out-fighter by necessity. He is neither technical nor confident enough to operate in the pocket, so he has to wing bombs from long range and look for rare opportunities to hit a takedown. Lahat, on the other hand, is a skilled fighter with options. Like many mixed martial artists, he is a little too right-hand-centric for his own good, but he does a good job to blend these strikes into his takedown attempts; and unlike many other long-range wrestlers, Lahat’s judo background gives him tactical flexibility in the clinch should the opponent stuff his initial shot. Rivas has solid basic jiu-jitsu but Lahat, a no gi world champion, is simply on another level. The pick is Lahat by submission in the second round.

Welterweights

Mickey Gall (1-0) vs Mike Jackson (0-0): I am fairly certain that Jackson is the first non-“Ultimate Fighter” contestant to make his professional debut in the UFC since James Toney in 2010. This hallmark coincides with a notable change in UFC recruiting strategy. Instead of waiting for fighters to prove themselves on the regional circuits, the UFC is now picking up promising novices with the hope of letting them develop inside the Octagon. Gall is the latest in this new school, following in the footsteps of Randy Brown and Sage Northcutt, and Jackson is being brought in to lose to him. However, with more MMA experience, plus boxing and kickboxing, I am not so sure Jackson will follow the script. Gall will look to take down Jackson, and Jackson will look to knock out Gall. There is little to go on for either man, but Jackson’s experience gives him the only clear edge in a confounding matchup. He wins by second-round TKO.

Featherweights

Artem Lobov (11-11-1) vs Alex White (10-2): Lobov is an interesting fighter. Not much of a technician, he is almost an anti-specialist, banking always on toughness, determination and an ever-deepening pool of valuable experience. Lobov is extremely active, having fought 24 times since his professional debut in 2010 -- an average of nearly five fights per year. If anything, that frequency of competition was responsible for Lobov’s three knockouts on “The Ultimate fighter,” despite a professional knockout rate of just 16 percent. White has had eight weeks to prepare for Lobov, however, and that is a situation with which the Irish brawler tends to struggle. Almost every time Lobov faces a more specialized opponent, he falls short. White is unlikely to exploit Lobov’s weakness for submission wrestling, and he will almost certainly walk repeatedly into the hop-step cross counter that Lobov occasionally borrows from Conor McGregor. However, he will throw volume, kick Lobov’s body and legs and happily eat Lobov’s best punches. It should be a messy brawl either way. The pick is White by split decision.

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