Preview: UFC 245 ‘Usman vs. Covington’

Featherweights

NR | Chase Hooper (8-0-1, -115) vs. NR | Daniel Teymur (7-3, -105): After earning a developmental contract on the 2018 season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Washington’s Hooper is the latest sickeningly young prospect to make his UFC debut. Born in 1999, Hooper was just 18 when he was on the Contender Series, and he showed some potential. An enormous featherweight, Hooper’s stiffness on the feet got him lit up at moments, but his durability, aggression and skill on the ground eventually paid off as he gutted out a decision win. Not much has changed since. Hooper still gets by on his toughness and grappling, and it will be interesting to see how he attempts to fix the holes in his striking game going forward. He may learn some defense, or a lack of fluid athleticism may wind up giving him a clear ceiling. Teymur represents an interesting first test. Unlike his much more technical younger brother, Teymur is an absolute wildman, chasing an early finish while eventually tiring himself out late. That eventually got him a win in his fourth UFC appearance against Sung Bin Jo in June, and that may be enough here. If Teymur chooses to press the action as he always does, it is almost expected that he will be able to blast Hooper with something powerful. However, Hooper has shown enough durability—at least for now—that he should be able to survive some rough early exchanges. From there, it is difficult not to see him eventually taking over the fight, particularly by taking things to the mat. The pick is Hooper via third-round submission.

Flyweights

#6 FLW | Kai Kara-France (20-7, -155) vs. #5 FLW | Brandon Moreno (15-5-1, +135): Even though the UFC’s flyweight division is eternally on the chopping block, this should be an enjoyable exercise. New Zealand’s Kara-France had the misfortune of getting signed just as it looked like the UFC was abolishing his division, but he has won his three fights in the promotion thus far to make sure he stuck around. Kara-France is an interesting fighter. He has rare knockout power for a flyweight, but he has traditionally struggled to dictate terms against aggressive grapplers, which makes this fight against Moreno an intriguing matchup. Moreno came out of nowhere to win his first three UFC bouts and emerge as a flyweight contender, but losses to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja showed that he was extremely reliant on scoring a dynamic finish without much in terms of nuts and bolts to hold together his game. Moreno temporarily found himself out of the UFC before getting re-signed earlier this year, and he looked like much the same fighter in what should have been a win against Askar Askarov, for better or for worse. Moreno’s pace and constant willingness to make stuff happen, especially on the mat, should give Kara-France some issues, but it is difficult to tell if it will be enough to win. Moreno is by far the most potent finisher Kara-France has faced, but he is no control artist and the Kiwi has usually been able to fight off tough situations through technique and power. Kara-France may just keep shaking off Moreno and lighting up “The Assassin Baby” up on the feet, but the pick is for Moreno to succeed in keeping a pace and wearing out Kara-France to score a tough decision.

Women’s Flyweights

#5 WFLW | Viviane Araujo (8-1, -170) vs. #2 WFLW | Jessica Eye (14-7, +150): Brazil’s Araujo has been one of the most pleasant surprises of 2019, making herself an unlikely flyweight contender. A career strawweight, Araujo made her UFC debut on a few days’ notice up at bantamweight, looking sharp while knocking out Talita Bernardo in May. Rather than cut back down to 115 pounds, Araujo has decided to ply her trade at flyweight, and judging from her last fight, that seems like the correct move. Her speed was fully on display against Alexis Davis in July, as “Vivi” lit up the veteran perennial contender. Araujo could set herself up for a flyweight title shot against Valentina Shevchenko with a win here against Eye, who looks to recover from a one-sided loss to the flyweight queen. Eye’s fights have always been less than the sum of their parts. While she is a decent enough athlete with a well-rounded set of skills, her lack of fight IQ has often seen her snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The UFC opened its women’s flyweight division just in time to save Eye’s career. After a four-fight skid as a bantamweight, Eye has been much more effective with better physical parity at 125 pounds, rattling off three straight wins in 2018 to set her up as a top contender. Shevchenko absolutely annihilated her, but for all her faults, Eye may still be the second-best flyweight on the roster. Eye’s wrestling is the main concern here for Araujo. It has been an effective failsafe in a way that it was not against stronger competition at bantamweight, and the American should be at a considerable strength advantage. Of course, she will have to catch Araujo first, and the Brazilian should manage to stay at range and pepper away at Eye for as long as this fight stays on the feet. There is a concern that it is actually Araujo who fights the wrong fight, given her proclivity to try for an ill-advised takedown at least once or twice per outing, but it is hard not to bet on the speed gap here. The pick is Araujo via decision.

Middleweights

Punahele Soriano (6-0, -115) vs. Oskar Piechota (11-2-1, -105): This opener should be an interesting litmus test for Soriano. The Hawaiian was signed off Dana White’s Contender Series and is certainly the type of fighter that UFC brass likes—a powerful athlete with a record of first-round knockouts, even if he did tire out and rely on his wrestling to gut out a win in his DWCS appearance. For his UFC debut, he draws Poland’s Piechota, who has had some struggles sticking out as a bit of a generalist now that he has ventured into in deeper waters. Piechota is technically sound everywhere but fails to press the action much. He managed to knock out Tim Williams with a counter in his most impressive UFC performance to date, but otherwise, his bouts have seen a lot of attrition until “Imadlo” either gets tired or physically overwhelmed. There is a decent chance that Soriano’s horsepower simply overwhelms Piechota early for a quick finish, but things could get ugly for the newcomer if this makes it out of the first round. While Piechota has his own gas tank issues, Soriano figures to tire much more quickly, and Piechota looks to have enough grappling chops to turn back any of the Hawaiian’s escape plans. The pick is Piechota via decision.