Preview: UFC 221 ‘Romero vs. Rockhold’

Lightweight

Mizuto Hirota (18-8-2) vs. Ross Pearson (19-14)

ODDS: Pearson (-145), Hirota (+125).

ANALYSIS: Hirota and Pearson are far from identical fighters, but their own idiosyncratic blends of boxing and wrestling would have made a highly compelling style matchup … seven years ago. Now, most of the intrigue in this one comes from trying to figure out which man is more faded and shopworn and how that plays into the stylistic matchup. The degradation, slowing of reflexes and its impact on both fighters’ performances has been obvious, though Hirota will be helped by moving back to 155 pounds after a disastrous weight cut canceled his slated September bout with Charles Rosa. However, going right back to his days as a Shooto rookie champion, Hirota has had a nasty habit of not reacting to sudden lead punches and hitting the deck. Alexander Volkanovski nearly blew out his brains with an overhand right off the bat this year, and Teruto Ishihara batted him around for the first half of their “Road to UFC Japan” final. Pearson excels fighting in a phone booth or working a medium-range boxing game; if Hirota could circle, use his jabs and kicks and force Pearson to swing and miss like he did against Steven Ray, this is a winnable fight. However, the 36-year-old is not nearly as varied in the boxing game as Pearson; and while “The Real Deal” has lost four in a row, many of his struggles have come on account of elite opposition and his own strategic difficulties, whereas Hirota is likely to allow the Brit to impose his fight. Pearson gets the jab and leg kicks going, works body-head combos behind them and probably even scores a flash knockdown en route to a unanimous decision over the former Deep champion.

Bantamweight

Teruto Ishihara (10-4-2) vs. Jose Alberto Quinonez (6-2)

ODDS: Quinonez (-220), Ishihara (+180).

ANALYSIS: The 27-year-old Quinonez is far from a finished product and I am not sure he will ever be a UFC-caliber fighter, whatever that nebulous term may mean in 2018. However, despite what he is giving up in hitting power and general unpredictability to the Japanese wild child here, it is not unfounded that he is a healthy favorite. First, the elephant in the room: Though he has showed striking improvement since linking up sporadically with Alliance MMA and Eric del Fierro, Quinonez remains an awkward, unpolished striker. However, “El Teco” has mustered a 3-1 UFC mark, including three straight wins, because of an awkward, disjointed style in which he is able to change stances, lob awkward strikes and, most importantly, get to the clinch. Once Quinonez gets to his opponent’s body, he is relentless in his pursuit of putting him on the mat, and it suits him fine if the takedown is not clean, as he thrives in scrambles and in taking dominant positions off those fragmented moments in fights. This is bad news for Ishihara who for all his training stateside at Team Alpha Male has shown little improvement in his defensive grappling; his 16 percent takedown defense remains as statistically pathetic as the eyeball test would suggest. “Yashabo” might explode into one lunging right hook and wipe out the Mexican in this one, but Quinonez averages 3.15 successful takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Plus, he is awkward and relentless in his pursuit of the grappling exchanges, which seems to be the exact tactics that freeze up the free-swinging Ishihara. Quinonez by positionally dominant decision is the call.

Welterweight

Daichi Abe (6-0) vs. Luke Jumeau (12-4)

ODDS: Abe (-130), Jumeau (+110).

ANALYSIS: I would be lying if I said I was not confused by this betting line. Perhaps oddsmakers and bettors were put off by how much open exchanging the 26-year-old Abe did in his September UFC debut against Hyun Gyu Lim. However, Abe not only won the fight clearly but battered Lim with counterpunches, nearly finished him and did so with just one eye for most of the bout. On top of that, Lim is a 6-foot-3 welterweight who had nearly seven inches of reach on Abe. Jumeau is tough and rugged, but most of his game is very basic, predicated on his big overhand rights and hooks. Abe, a former J-Network kickboxing champ, is a much faster, sharper striker and certainly packs more natural pop; this actually looks like a great style matchup for the former welterweight King of Pancrase. On top of that, Abe has some stylistic insulation. His aggressive counterstriking style belies the fact that he was a national judo champion in high school, and frankly, Jumeau’s defensive wrestling is insufficient at this level. Abe will eventually land his lead left hook or long right cross on a trudging Jumeau and knock him out in the first 10 minutes.