Preview: UFC 216 ‘Ferguson vs. Lee’
The Prelims
Heavyweights
Mark Godbeer (12-3) vs. Walt Harris (10-5)ODDS: Harris (-330), Godbeer (+270)
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It took the 34-year-old Harris a while to get going in the UFC, as he got off to a 0-3 start in the Octagon. Since his April 2016 breakout win over Cody East, he is 3-1, his lone loss coming in a close decision to rock-solid Russian Shamil Abdurakhimov. A physically hulking southpaw with incredible athleticism, Harris may be a two-time Golden Gloves boxer and recently spent time sparring at Sky Gym with WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder, but his best assets are his feet. “The Big Ticket” is an impressive, powerful kicker, working the left liver kick, surprising roundhouse kicks upstairs and even flying knees. His fitness is a question and he often spends too much time simply standing around, but when he smells blood in the water, he is aggressive and devastating, as evidenced in his recent stoppages of Chase Sherman and Cyril Asker.
Godbeer is a more evolved form of your boilerplate United Kingdom
heavyweight. His kickboxing is cleaner and more varied than your
average British brawler, with a strong jab, right hand and low
kicks to punctuate combinations. Given how hittable Harris remains
-- he is especially open to big right-hand counters -- Godbeer has
the chance to land a one-hitter quitter. However, he will need to
find those counters early to avoid getting chewed up by Harris’
heavy kicks; plus, Godbeer has a nasty habit of ducking his face
straight down while coming inside, which could lead to him eating
massive knees from his opponent. Harris grabs his fourth win in his
last five bouts via knockout in the first 10 minutes.
Flyweights
Magomed Bibulatov (14-0) vs. John Moraga (17-6)ODDS: Bibulatov (-600), Moraga (+450)
ANALYSIS: This is a pitch-perfect pairing between two top-10 flyweights. Backed by his undefeated 14-0 mark and an eye-opening offensive style, Bibulatov is the best 125-pound prospect in the world. Meanwhile, in the wake of his unsuccessful UFC title challenge against Demetrious Johnson in July 2013, Moraga has settled into a “gatekeeper to the stars” role in the division. This is no slight to “Chicano John,” as his defeats have all come to elite opposition. Bibulatov was dominant in his April UFC debut over the Philippines’ Jenel Lausa, but he seemed to play it relatively safe by opting to utilize his top position game for 15 minutes, belying the sort of high-octane offense that makes him so special. Moraga is rugged, aggressive and one of the best offensive fighters in the division, a fact which should force the Chechen fighter to come out of his shell and prove whether or not he is ready for flyweight’s finest.
Against Lausa, the 29-year-old Bibulatov showed he is a consummate, capable wrestler with ground-and-pound and positional submission skills, but what makes him unique are his spinning, flying offensive attacks. Bibulatov’s exotic strikes are not wild or disjointed. Rather, the “Gladiator” mixes spinning back kicks and fists, flying knees, banana kicks and the like into actual combinations. He is at his best when he can back up and allow his opponents to expose themselves, pouncing on counter chances with his right hook and then opening up the full arsenal. Bibulatov has everything you could ask for in a top-flight prospect, apart from his frightening connections to his literal patron, Chechen leader and genocidal warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.
On the other hand, Moraga charges in behind big punches to set up slamming takedowns. From there, his strategy is always two-pronged: ground-and-pound as savagely as possible while looking for his trademark guillotine choke. The problem for the Arizona native is that his striking is more powerful than it is poised, so against savvy strikers, he can get lost and frustrated quickly on the feet when he cannot make contact, which is how he lost decisions to Matheus Nicolau Pereira and Sergio Pettis. That dynamic seems to play perfectly into the hands of Bibulatov, who should land that counter right hook and bring his unorthodox attacks behind it, leaving Moraga stuck in first gear while taking a unanimous decision.
Middleweights
Thales Leites (27-7) vs. Brad Tavares (15-4)ODDS: Tavares (-185). Leites (+160)
ANALYSIS: Leites may never have reached the lofty heights presumed for him 11 years ago when he was the hottest 185-pound prospect in the world, but for nearly a decade, the Brazilian has been a top-15 fixture in the division. Meanwhile, no sort of greatness was forecasted for Tavares coming off of “The Ultimate Fighter 11.” Yet over his 14 Octagon appearances, he has incrementally improved each step of the way to surprisingly solidify himself in that same top-15 territory. The best incarnation of Leites, circa 2009-13, would have found a way into the clinch, gotten Tavares down and smothered or submitted him. These are two fighters moving in different directions, however. While Tavares continues to quietly tighten his game, Leites is 2-3 in his last five outings and looks like a physical shell of his former self.
Leites, 36, is having more problems implementing his usual attack. He was exhausted after five minutes against Krzysztof Jotko, which allowed the Pole to counterpunch him to death and take top position over the final 10 minutes; and even though Leites nearly kicked off Sam Alvey’s leg in Round 1, “Smilin’ Sam” still won the final frame against the gassed Brazilian. The ways in which wear and tear are manifesting on Leites lend themselves to Tavares’ style. The Hawaiian’s kickboxing game is bread-and-butter jabs, one-twos and kicks, but he is counter-oriented, defensively stout and very well-conditioned. Leites is not going to put an early round in the bank with just leg kicks, and his reaching, looping punches are unlikely to find their mark. Even if Leites does get his grappling going early, Tavares is liable to scramble up quickly and outlast an increasingly desperate Brazilian, landing sharp, clean counters over the final 10 minutes to win a decision. It would be his fourth win in his last five appearances.
Flyweights
Marco Beltran (8-5) vs. Matt Schnell (10-4)ODDS: Schnell (-120), Beltran (+100)
ANALYSIS: The opening bout at UFC 216 should not lack for pace. Mexico’s Beltran is a fairly meat-and-potatoes striker, basing his style around the jab, one-two combinations and standard kicking offense; Schnell’s standup output is similar, plus a notably strong right hook, but the American lacks defensively despite his willingness to engage on the feet. We saw this in his first two official UFC bouts against Rob Font and Hector Sandoval. Schnell’s striking aggression should give Beltran targets at which to shoot. On the flipside, what stymies Beltran is that he does not have the footwork to elude his opponents, often finding himself clinched, trapped against the fence or trying to fight back to his feet.
This seems to be the more salient of the stylistic sticking points, as Schnell is an aggressive, dynamic submission specialist who thrives in scrambles. If the American Top Team rep can put down Beltran clean in the middle of the cage, he can set about sliding through guard and looking for submissions. With a great, sudden guillotine choke and a knack for snatching armbars and triangles from basic transitions, Schnell’s game poses major problems for Beltran, who perpetually seems to be turtling, cagewalking and trying to get to his feet. Schnell’s lack of durability can be exploited by “Psycho,” but even at his best, Beltran spends too much time defensively scrambling, a trait which should give Schnell all the chances he needs to lock up a submission in the first half of the fight.
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