UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. dos Anjos’ Preview

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Featherweights

Chas Skelly (11-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Tom Niinimaki (21-6, 1-1 UFC)

Matchup: The main card opens with a solid matchup between the UFC’s lone Finn, Niinimaki, and a Team Takedown product in Skelly. Both fighters are coming off losses -- Skelly to Mirsad Bektic in April, Niinimaki to Niklas Backstrom in May -- and might be fighting for their jobs in an increasingly stacked featherweight division.

Skelly is a former NAIA All-American wrestler with a lanky 5-foot-11 frame that gives him tremendous leverage in the clinch. Infighting range is Skelly’s wheelhouse, as he excels at controlling opponents against the fence; plus, his height allows him to land sneaky knees and punches. His takedowns are solid but not outstanding, and he scrambles on the ground fairly well, with a knack for picking up submissions in transition. At striking range, things get a bit ugly. Skelly plods and attempts to make use his length by tossing out a rangy jab and front kick, but he has no feel and does not produce much volume. He has a little pop in his hands, especially his overhand right, but not enough to make him a consistent threat.

Niinimaki is a decorated grappler with a pressuring style. He pursues the takedown from the opening bell and uses surprisingly technical single- and double-legs as his go-to moves. Once the fight hits the mat, Niinimaki’s game is aggressive and relentless, as he is always looking for openings to pass and momentary defensive lapses that might allow him to snag an opportunistic submission or a dominant position. He is a good enough striker to cover his forward movement into clinch and wrestling range but does not offer much else.

Betting Odds: Niinimaki (-140), Skelly (+120)

The Pick: Unless one fighter suddenly decides not to fight in his area of strength, this should be contested mostly in the clinch, in scrambles and on the ground. Unlike Backstrom, who submitted Niinimaki in May, Skelly lacks the athleticism and slick submission chops to beat the Finn at his own game. Niinimaki wins by unanimous decision.

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