UFC Fight Night 29 Preview

Leg locks are Rousimar Palhares’ bread and butter. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Welterweights

Mike Pierce (17-5, 9-3 UFC) vs. Rousimar Palhares (14-5, 7-4 UFC)

The Matchup: Palhares’ tenure as a UFC middleweight ended in ignominy at UFC on FX 6 in December. First, the Brazilian submission ace was dropped twice by Hector Lombard en route to losing via first-round knockout. Then, “Toquinho” was flagged for elevated testosterone after the bout and suspended for nine months. All of this on the heels of a shellacking at the hands of Alan Belcher, who also dispatched the stocky Palhares inside of a round at UFC on Fox 3.

With that, Palhares has elected to drop to 170 pounds -- an interesting move considering how thickly muscled his 5-foot-8 frame was at middleweight. Perhaps a different approach to strength and conditioning will give the Brazilian Top Team product a new outlook in his new division. He will not be allowed to ease into the welterweight scene, however. The criminally underrated Pierce has battled tooth-and-nail with the likes Johny Hendricks, Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, losing narrow decisions to each. A gritty wrestler with a draining clinch game, Pierce will not have to work especially hard to close the distance against an opponent that shares his height and reach. The majority of Pierce’s best work is done in close quarters, as he prefers to attack his foes with dirty boxing against the fence.

It is difficult to look good against Pierce, who has yet to be finished in 22 professional appearances. Palhares has fairly heavy hands but lacks the diversity to truly threaten Pierce on the feet. The Brazilian possesses an explosive shot and powerful ground-and-pound, but it is unlikely that he will be able to ground Pierce consistently. Instead, he will have to capitalize on small openings and be creative in looking to trap his foe in one of his patented leg locks.

The problem here is that Palhares absorbs far too much damage in scrambles and transitions. If he is unable to secure a fight-ending submission, he will probably find himself eating strikes from above.

The Pick: Pierce will not wait long to tie up Palhares and get to work. If he is unwilling to operate in his opponent’s guard, Pierce has enough thunder to rock Palhares standing; and on the ground, the Brazilian often leaves himself far too vulnerable. Outside of a kneebar or heel hook, maneuvers for which Pierce will be well-prepared, this has the look of a typical grinder. Pierce wins by decision or TKO.

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