UFC 167 ‘St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Preview

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Lightweights

Donald Cerrone (20-6, 7-3 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (14-4, 7-4 UFC): Both Cerrone and Dunham have been on the precipice of title contention, only to fall short at key moments; a loss here could seriously damage the future hopes for either man. Cerrone will have to break the habit of starting slow against Dunham, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with an aggressive and versatile standup arsenal. Facing a three-inch reach disadvantage, Dunham might look to close the distance and land strikes in the clinch while working for takedowns. Look for a back-and-forth battle, with Cerrone landing kicks on the outside while Dunham presses forward. The first five minutes will be crucial, especially for “Cowboy.” Cerrone wins by decision.

Middleweights

Thales Leites (21-4, 6-3 UFC) vs. Ed Herman (21-9, 8-6 UFC): After nearly four years away from the Octagon, Leites made a triumphant return at UFC 163, using takedowns, ground-and-pound and clinch work to take a bloody unanimous decision against Tom Watson in Brazil. Leites’ success is based primarily on getting takedowns, after which the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt can utilize his submissions and suffocating top game. Much of this fight figures to be contested in the clinch against Herman, who prefers to maul his opponents in close quarters and with heavy ground-and-pound. Herman’s plodding style leaves him vulnerable to quick transitions and opportunistic submissions. Leites wins via tapout in round two.

Welterweights

Rick Story (15-7, 8-5 UFC) vs. Brian Ebersole (50-15-1, 4-1 UFC): Story had Mike Pyle reeling for a while at UFC 160, but the crafty veteran was able to recover and hand the “Horror” his fourth loss in six outings. The Brave Legion product hits hard and can be overpowering in the clinch, but he is not a consistently dominant wrestler. After beginning his Octagon tenure with four straight wins, the well-traveled Ebersole suffered a split decision loss to James Head at UFC 149. He has not competed since. Ebersole cannot afford a slugfest with the heavy-handed Story, but he may find it difficult to impose his will through wrestling against a powerful foe. The layoff is a concern, as well. Story takes this by TKO or decision.

Bantamweights

Erik Perez (13-5, 3-1 UFC) vs. Edwin Figueroa (9-3, 2-3 UFC): Perez’s rise through the 135-pound ranks was slowed somewhat at UFC Fight Night 27, where he lost a split decision to durable Japanese veteran Takeya Mizugaki. Still, it is hard not to like the Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts product’s potential, and at 23 years old he still has plenty of room to grow. Figueroa should be willing to trade with Perez, but the Mexican-born fighter has the advantage on the ground. Perez wins by TKO or submission within the first two rounds.

Welterweights

Jason High (17-4, 1-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Lapsley (22-5, 0-0 UFC): High earned his first Octagon win in August, tapping out James Head with a first-round guillotine choke at UFC Fight Night 27. High’s wrestling makes him a difficult matchup for those who lack the skill and athleticism to stay upright consistently. Lapsley has some decent experience in his professional career, including victories over Brent Weedman, Tyler Stinson and Mike Stumpf and losses against Carlo Prater, Jay Hieron, Drew Fickett and Michael Guymon. High wins by decision.

Flyweights

Sergio Pettis (9-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Will Campuzano (13-4, 0-2 UFC): Pettis, the younger brother of UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, makes his much-anticipated Octagon debut after racking up a solid string of victories on the regional circuit. What is impressive about Pettis’ streak is that he has succeeded under a fair amount of scrutiny; his brother’s success made him a prospect before his first professional appearance. Campuzano is no warm-up opponent, however. Since leaving the UFC, the Texan has compiled a five-fight winning streak and captured the Legacy Fighting Championship flyweight strap. The 20-year-old Pettis has some nice wins, but he is bound to experience some growing pains against someone with Campuzano’s experience. Campuzano takes it by decision.

Light Heavyweights

Cody Donovan (8-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Gian Villante (10-4, 0-1 UFC): Both men are coming off loses to former University of Tennessee football standout Ovince St. Preux, Donovan by first-round knockout and Villante by technical decision after an accidental eye poke from OSP brought a premature end to their bout. A former wrestler and football player at Hofstra University, Villante has the physical tools for success in the Octagon; it is just a matter of putting everything together. Donovan has absorbed some heavy shots in both of his UFC appearances, which does not bode well for his chances here. Villante wins by KO or TKO in round one or two.

TRACKING TRISTEN 2013

Overall Record: 230-142
Last Event (UFC Fight Night 32): 5-6
Best Event (Strikeforce “Marquardt vs. Saffiedine): 9-2
Worst Event (UFC 156/UFC on Fuel TV 8/UFC Fight Night 28/UFC Fight Night 32): 5-6