UFC 166 ‘Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3’ Preview

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Middleweights

Tim Boetsch (16-6, 7-5 UFC) vs. C.B. Dollaway (13-4, 7-4 UFC): Originally paired with former Strikeforce ruler Luke Rockhold, Boetsch now gets a very different stylistic matchup in Dollaway, a former All-American wrestler at Arizona State University. “The Doberman” carries a two-fight winning streak into the bout, but he must be wary of leaving himself exposed on the feet. Boetsch certainly has the potential to drag Dollaway into a down-and-dirty brawl, but he must remain upright to do so, as he struggled to combat the ground-and-pound of Mark Munoz in a loss at UFC 162. Dollaway is not as fluid a striker as Rockhold, but he should be able to secure enough takedowns to win a decision.

Welterweights

Hector Lombard (32-4-1, 1-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-12-1, 10-5 UFC): As impressive as Lombard was outside of the Octagon, the former Bellator MMA middleweight champion has not delivered on his significant hype since signing with the UFC. In all fairness, he has not been blown out in either of his losses, but another defeat could result in his release. Marquardt, meanwhile, might be facing similar circumstances. The former 185-pound No. 1 contender has suffered back-to-back losses, including a first-round knockout to Jake Ellenberger at UFC 158. It will be interesting to see how Lombard handles the cut to 170 for the first time. While “Lightning” has the ability to test Marquardt’s chin, five-plus years between knockout defeats does not yet equal a trend. Marquardt wins by decision.

Bantamweights

Sarah Kaufman (16-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Jessica Eye (10-1, 0-0 UFC): Eye is a natural flyweight, but since no such division yet exists for women in the UFC, it is worth the risk to try her hand a weight class above. Kaufman, a former Strikeforce 135-pound queen, is coming off a hard fought split verdict over Leslie Smith in Invicta Fighting Championships. While Kaufman can land in great volume using crisp straight punches, she also tends to absorb her share of punishment. It will be up to Eye to bring the fight to the Canadian on the feet. Kaufman wins an entertaining matchup by decision or late TKO.

Lightweights

K.J. Noons (11-7, 0-1 UFC) vs. George Sotiropoulos (14-5, 7-3 UFC): Noons has certainly had his struggles of late, losing five of his last six fights, but if Sotiropoulos cannot get the Strikeforce veteran to the canvas, he could be in for a long night. Noons’ ability to land combinations while utilizing feints and angles far exceeds anything the Aussie can do on the feet. After winning his first seven Octagon appearances and establishing himself as a dark horse contender, Sotiropoulos has lost three in a row. This one has a bit of a desperate theme, with the Aussie needing to do whatever it takes to make it a grappling match. Noons takes this by KO or TKO in round one or two.

Welterweights

Adlan Amagov (12-2-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. T.J. Waldburger (16-7, 4-2 UFC): Amagov, whose only professional defeat came at the hands of knockout artist Robbie Lawler under the Strikeforce banner, showcased a bevy of flashy techniques in a win over Chris Spang at UFC on Fuel TV 9. He will attempt to keep the fight standing against Waldburger, an active ground specialist averaging a whopping 6.36 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Amagov’s ability to control distance with kicks carries him to a decision.

Lightweights

Tony Ferguson (13-3, 3-1 UFC) vs. Mike Rio (9-2, 1-1 UFC): After beginning his UFC tenure with three straight wins, Ferguson had no answer for the speed and athleticism off Michael Johnson at UFC on Fox 3. “El Cucuy” returns to action for the first time in nearly a year and a half against Rio, who is unlikely to present nearly as many problems on the feet. Rio, a three-time national champion wrestler in college, will not be able to rely solely on his top game against his opponent. Ferguson uses solid takedown defense and counterpunching to win via KO or TKO in round one or two.

Featherweights

Jeremy Larsen (8-4, 0-2 UFC) vs. Andre Fili (12-1, 0-0 UFC): Larsen did well for two rounds against Lucas Martins at UFC on FX 8, but a counter right hand in round three led to the Arizona Combat Sports product’s second loss in as many Octagon appearances. An intriguing prospect out of the Team Alpha Male camp, Fili makes his promotional debut riding an eight-fight winning streak. Fili wins by decision.

Bantamweights

Dustin Pague (11-8, 1-4 UFC) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (11-1, 0-0 UFC): Yushin Okami must look at someone like Pague and wonder why he no longer has a job in the UFC. Though not necessarily a big draw, “The Disciple” is still around after four losses in five outings. Pague figures to have his hands full with Horiguchi, a 22-year-old Krazy Bee export and Shooto 132-pound titlist. Horiguchi has the ability to test Pague’s chin, and he will. Horiguchi wins by KO or TKO in round two.

TRACKING TRISTEN 2013

Overall Record: 187-116
Last Event (UFC Fight Night 29): 5-5
Best Event (Strikeforce “Marquardt vs. Saffiedine): 9-2
Worst Event (UFC 156/UFC on Fuel TV 8/UFC Fight Night 28): 5-6