Mike Pyle (left) has stopped his last three opponents inside one round. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Welterweights
Mike Pyle (24-8-1, 7-3 UFC) vs. Rick Story (15-6, 8-4 UFC): Story steps in for Gunnar Nelson after the Icelandic standout withdrew from the bout due to a knee injury. The Brave Legion representative rebounded from a thrashing at the hands of Demian Maia to score a first-round TKO against lanky grappler Quinn Mulhern at UFC 158. He faces a crafty veteran in Pyle, who has won six of his last seven Octagon outings, including three straight by first-round stoppage. Story will try to land heavy punches and outmuscle Pyle in tie-ups, but “Quicksand” is adept at controlling the tempo of a fight. Pyle wins via decision or late submission.
Featherweights
Max Holloway (7-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Dennis Bermudez (10-3, 3-1 UFC): Bermudez’s last bout, a “Fight of the Night” scrap with Matt Grice at UFC 157, showcased “The Ultimate Fighter 14” finalist’s power punching and resilience. Against Holloway, a gifted striker with a four-inch reach advantage, Bermudez should look to return to his wrestling base to nullify his opponent’s offense. Bermudez lands steady ground-and-pound, works to advance position and wins via TKO in round two.
Welterweights
Robert Whittaker (10-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Colton Smith (3-1, 1-0 UFC): Smith is not the most entertaining talent to ever emerge from “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he certainly is effective. At “The Ultimate Fighter 16” Finale, Smith utilized a steady diet of takedowns and positional control to cruise to a unanimous decision against Mike Ricci. Whittaker, the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes,” will have to create space to land the combinations that worked for him against Brad Scott in his last outing. Unless Whittaker can land something significant and hurt his opponent early, Smith grinds his way to a decision victory.
Lightweights
Khabib Nurmagomedov (19-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (10-4, 1-0 UFC): Nurmagomedov looks to be one of the most promising new stars in the lightweight division. Most recently, the American Kickboxing Academy product used a leaping uppercut and follow-up ground strikes to dispatch Thiago Tavares at UFC on FX 7 for his third straight win in the Octagon. Meanwhile, Trujillo displayed quick hands and an ability to land offense in close quarters in his second-round TKO of Marcus LeVesseur at UFC on Fox 5. Nurmagomedov takes this by submission in the first or second round.
Welterweights
Nah-Shon Burrell (9-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Stephen Thompson (6-1, 1-1 UFC): After a spectacular head-kick knockout of Daniel Stittgen to begin his UFC career, Thompson came down to earth in dropping a unanimous verdict to Matt Brown at UFC 145. “Wonderboy” has not fought since, conceivably giving him plenty of time to shore up the glaring holes in his ground game. Burrell, coming off a hard-fought triumph over Yuri Villefort at UFC 157, has a solid jab, good hand speed and a varied overall striking arsenal. Burrell’s ability to mix in takedowns will help carry him to a decision victory.
Bantamweights
Brian Bowles (10-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. George Roop (13-9-1, 3-5 UFC): Bowles returns to action for the first time since losing to Urijah Faber in November 2011. The former WEC 135-pound king is a good athlete with a solid power in his right hand and decent wrestling; staying healthy has been his greatest obstacle. In his first fight at bantamweight since a loss to Eddie Wineland at WEC 46, Roop earned a unanimous decision over Reuben Duran at UFC 158. Bowles wins by decision.
Featherweights
Jeremy Stephens (20-9, 7-8 UFC) vs. Estevan Payan (14-3, 0-0 UFC): After suffering three losses in a row, Stephens has elected to test the featherweight waters against Payan, who recently earned triumphs over Alonzo Martinez and Mike Bravo under the Strikeforce banner. Payan seems like the type of guy who will not hesitate to engage the heavy-handed Stephens, and for that, he will pay a price. Stephens wins by KO orTKO in round two.
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TRACKING TRISTEN 2013
Overall Record: 103-58
Last Event (UFC on FX 8): 9-4
Best Event (Strikeforce “Marquardt vs. Saffiedine): 9-2
Worst Event (UFC 156/UFC on Fuel TV 8): 5-6