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FIGHT ODDS

Strikeforce ‘Overeem vs. Werdum’ Preview

Jason ProbstJun 15, 2011
Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante (right) will be a huge step up in competition for Justin Wilcox. | Photo: D. Mandel


Lightweights
Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante (15-4-1, 1 NC) vs. Justin Wilcox (11-3)

The Matchup: A major step up here for Wilcox, whose five-minute domination of Rodrigo Damm in Stockton, Calif., in April landed him the shot against Cavalcante. This is a definite wrestler-versus-submissions/striker-style match, though Wilcox’s standup has improved in recent outings.

It is tempting to pick Wilcox on account of better wrestling and natural aggression. However, that could play into Cavalcante’s hands, especially with his penchant for countering mistakes. If Cavalcante can blunt Wilcox’s takedown attempts and keep him from moving forward while striking, he can outpoint him and win a decision.

The Pick: If Cavalcante cannot hold his ground standing, he will be taken down and held there -- it would be something of a miracle if Wilcox were able to stop him -- with Wilcox winning the decision.

Jason Probst can be reached at jason@jasonprobst.com or www.twitter.com/jasonprobst.