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FIGHT ODDS

Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Overeem vs. Arlovski’

Connor RuebuschMay 06, 2016

Women’s Strawweights

 Karolina Kowalkiewicz (8-0) vs. Heather Clark (7-4)

THE MATCHUP: Kowalkiewicz has an odd way of making every fight a dogfight. Like a 115-pound female Michael Bisping, Kowalkiewicz relies on volume and pace to get her victories. She is not a powerful puncher, though she could be if she involved her lower body more when she threw. Still, Kowalkiewicz is a superb round winner. She rarely lets herself get backed into the fence and stays very mobile, constantly forcing her opponent to turn and adjust to find her with strikes or takedowns. In the meantime, Kowalkiewicz layers her attacks nicely.

Clark’s striking game, on the other hand, is not unlike that of Randa Markos, whom Kowalkiewicz beat in her last outing. Clark throws a sharp right hand and more or less uses her left hand to measure the power punch. She is not an exceptional combination striker, but she does vary her targets and trajectories, switching from uppercuts to straights to overhands at will. Like Markos, she tends to throw on the counter. Clark’s real wheelhouse is on the ground. She has excellent positional control and will happily spend an entire round slowly securing her position. She is most dangerous from back control, where she threatens the neck and arms while constantly adjusting to maintain her advantageous position. Whether she will be able to drag down Kowalkiewicz is another story.

Kowalkiewicz’s mobility makes her very difficult to take down and she is strong in the clinch, as well, framing and creating angles to take away her opponent’s leverage. Though she rarely chooses to go there, Kowalkiewicz has tight control on the ground, particularly from top position. Given the opportunity to scramble or sweep, the Pole will pile on damaging elbows and short punches from half guard or mount.

THE ODDS: Kowalkiewicz (-245), Clark (+205)

THE PICK: As I said, Kowalkiewicz rarely finds herself in an easy fight. She may fight to the level of her competition somewhat, but her reliance on volume and activity is probably to blame. Kowalkiewicz needs to throw a lot and connect a lot to win, but doing so puts her in the opponent’s sights. Fortunately, she has excellent conditioning and ringcraft, and she appears to be tightening up some of the technical holes in her game, as well. Because Kowalkiewicz relies almost entirely on her feet for defense, Clark seems certain to find some counters as she moves forward. However, Kowalkiewicz adapts extremely well and keeps a hellacious pace for 15 minutes straight. The pick is Kowalkiewicz by unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims