Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Machida vs. Dollaway’

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Renato Carneiro (8-0-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Tom Niinimaki (21-7-1, 1-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Brasilia native Carneiro makes his UFC debut on late notice against Finland’s Niinimaki, replacing the injured Rony Mariano Bezerra. Carneiro is undefeated, while Niinimaki needs a win to remain in the UFC after dropping his last two fights by submission, most recently to Chas Skelly in August.

Carneiro is a skilled and athletic wrestle-grappler -- a practitioner of judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu from a relatively young age -- with a decent striking game to back it up. He has good timing on his reactive takedowns, uses a variety of finishes, chains his attempts nicely and shows excellent drive. He could stand to phase-shift more effectively and cover his shots with strikes, though, as he occasionally telegraphs his attempts. On the mat, Carneiro passes with aplomb, lands good strikes, maintains a heavy base and works diligently toward the submission finish. Striking is probably Carneiro’s weakest point, but he is reasonably competent, flicking quick kicks and a crisp jab at range. His output is limited, however, and he is not particularly powerful.

Like Carneiro, Niinimaki is almost entirely a wrestle-grappler and, despite what his consecutive submission losses might suggest, a talented one: He won the European Abu Dhabi Combat Club trials a few years back. He has solid takedowns, with a preference for the single-leg and nicely chained attempts, and he transitions directly from finishing the shot to attempting to pass. Niinimaki works at a frenetic pace on the ground, constantly looking for dominant positions and submissions in transition, but his aggressiveness and willingness to engage have gotten him in trouble in the past. Niinimaki can throw hands but uses them almost exclusively to distract from his takedown attempts.

THE PICK: This should be a fun fight filled with scrambles on the ground. Once again, however, it is difficult to imagine an opponent more suited to causing Niinimaki the kind of issues that have doomed him in his last two fights than Carneiro. Big, strong, athletic wrestle-grapplers who can keep up with him in the transitions have been Niinimaki’s kryptonite, and I think that will be the case again here. Carneiro by submission in the second round is the pick.

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