Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘MacDonald vs. Thompson’

Lightweights

Jason Saggo (11-2) vs. Leandro Silva (19-3-1): A year ago this might have been a relatively easy pick for Saggo. The Ontario native is a bona fide grappling maestro, with a dogged attitude to complement his airtight submission game. Saggo is also one of the rare fighters capable of winning a fight from his back, mostly because his brilliant sweeps keep him from staying there for long. Saggo lacks the boxing and wrestling to consistently force his opponent into his game, however; and since Silva made the switch to American Top Team, he has begun showing signs of marked improvement. Silva has always been physically strong and explosive, but the team at ATT has instilled in him a better sense of strategy. In his last fight, Silva was far less complacent than he used to be, which proved to be a saving grace against the tough veteran Efrain Escudero. “Buscape” threw more volume, stayed away from the fence and denied the takedowns. He was momentarily willing to fight off of his back in the second round, but a few words from his corner saw him enter the third with focus and murderous intent. That Silva could be a real force in the middle tier of the lightweight division; that Silva beats Saggo. The pick is Silva by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Misha Cirkunov (11-2) vs. Ion Cutelaba (11-1): Cirkunov continues to forge his path to UFC title contention, but he faces a stiff test in the form of promotional newcomer Cutelaba. Cutelaba is a striker first and foremost, with fast and powerful hands that have seen him score knockouts in nine of his 13 bouts. Cirkunov is a willing striker himself, but he can be stiff and awkward on the feet. Cutelaba has a bit of Carlos Condit in him: He is quite susceptible to the takedown while throwing hands but wrestles well once he is put on his back. He is also dangerous from top position, though he has yet to beat a fighter of Cirkunov’s caliber. Perhaps the biggest question going forward for Cirkunov is his stamina. He has finished both of his UFC opponents quickly but ended both fights looking a little too winded. Cutelaba has never gone past the second round, however, while Cirkunov has, so his cardio remains in doubt, as well. If both men struggle past the first round, then the matchup favors the stronger grappler: Cirkunov. His clinch is suffocating and his ground game is one of the best in the division. A big upset could be in the cards, but Cirkunov is the safer pick. He submits Cutelaba in the second round.

Middleweights

Tamdan McCrory (14-3) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (17-1): McCrory seems to have all the right tools to become a top middleweight, but he has historically struggled to impose those assets on an unwilling opponent. Meanwhile, Jotko has a bizarre, cobbled-together game that nonetheless flows smoothly. It has brought him great success in the strange but challenging UFC middleweight division. Jotko utilizes great lateral movement to keep his opponents from tracking him down, engaging in the clinch to stop takedowns or find some of his own. McCrory is dangerous in mid-range but, despite his frame, struggles with quick opponents who maintain the distance. So long as Jotko does not stand around in the pocket or tangle too recklessly with McCrory on the mat, this should be his fight to lose. Jotko by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Chris Beal (10-2) vs. Joe Soto (15-5): This is a complicated matchup between two exciting but inconsistent bantamweights. In many ways, Beal represents the same kind of challenge that Soto faced in his last fight -- a back-and-forth battle with Michinori Tanaka that resulted in a controversial split decision loss. Like Tanaka, Beal is quick and athletic, equally comfortable striking and wrestling. Where Tanaka clearly lost the third round of his contest with Soto due to poor stamina, Beal has never struggled to fight three rounds at a fast pace. He does, however, make strange mid-fight decisions, often facing his opponents at their range or in their phase of expertise. Soto, on the other hand, has a consistent MMA game but lacks durability and tends to lose rounds because his opponents’ shots affect him more than his affect them. Despite the spectacular knee-strike knockout that marked his debut, however, Beal is not normally a destructive puncher, which should give Soto the window he needs to find his rhythm and wear away at Beal’s suspect defenses. The pick is Soto by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Elias Theodorou (11-1) vs. Sam Alvey (26-7): Alvey struggled with Derek Brunson, who overwhelmed him before he could get comfortable, and Tom Watson, who never committed enough to give him an opening. Theodorou is more likely to follow in Watson’s footsteps than Brunson’s, but whether he can do so without catching an Alvey hook on the chin remains to be seen. Alvey is a middleweight’s middleweight. His level of athleticism would be a major detriment in the lighter divisions, and his slight frame would give him problems against the big boys. At middleweight, however, he can survive -- and even thrive -- based on craft and punching power alone. Alvey’s problem, as hinted at above, is that he relies heavily on the counter. If opponents attack him early, he can be hurt before ever finding his openings; and if they fight him carefully, he struggles to create momentum. Theodorou may lack the experience necessary to follow the game plan without exposing himself, but the fact remains that he is far more athletic than Alvey and happy to throw in volume. Alvey stands a solid chance of cracking Theodorou, but in the meantime the Canadian will be winning the rounds. The pick is Theodorou by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Randa Markos (5-3) vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-2): Markos finds herself in something of an unenviable position. In terms of numbers, the strawweight division is shallow, which means that Markos, a promising but inexperienced fighter, has a fairly small pool of women to fight. Unfortunately for her, that shallow pool is rife with sharks. When Jones-Lybarger represents a step down in competition, you find yourself in a dangerous division. Worse, Markos appears to have quit training with Tristar Gym’s Firas Zahabi for this camp; his calculated approach to MMA might have helped her get over the hump. Jones-Lybarger, on the other hand, still works with the equally capable John Crouch and crew at the MMA Lab in Arizona. Jones-Lybarger’s high-volume, high-pressure approach was thwarted by the lateral movement and counters of Tecia Torres, but that was a short-notice bout against a more proven opponent. This time around, Jones-Lybarger’s opponent just does not have the consistency you would like to see. Call it poor fight IQ, poor timing or just poor luck. The pick is Jones-Lybarger by split decision.

Welterweights

Colby Covington (8-1) vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-0): Meunier makes his UFC debut on short notice against a hard-as-nails grinder in Covington. Despite a striking background, Meunier’s most relevant success as a mixed martial artist has come as the result of top control and aggressive ground-and-pound. Covington is not much of a striker, but Meunier has been largely tentative on the feet, and Covington pursues the takedown with nearly unparalleled determination, so this fight will most likely play out on the ground. Meunier’s aggression in that phase could give him the edge, but on short notice, it seems unlikely that he will be able to outlast the American Top Team rep, despite the fact that Covington is more of a grinder than a finisher himself. The pick is Covington by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Ali Bagautinov (13-4) vs. Geane Herrera (9-1): Herrera had a rough matchup in his UFC debut, as he was dominated on the floor by top prospect Ray Borg. However, he comported himself well in his sophomore effort, showing some greatly improved striking against the quick and crafty Joby Sanchez. The problem was that Herrera hardly looked for takedowns in a back-and-forth striking battle, when his best asset is still his blitzing ground game. Bagautinov does not throw as much volume as Sanchez, but that also means he is more difficult to time and counter. In addition, Bagautinov himself likes to lay back and wait for his opponent to lead, and Herrera’s newfound offensive boxing has not yet been accompanied by great striking defense. Herrera could outwork Bagautinov, but the Dagestani “Puncher” is more powerful and more precise, with some solid wrestling chops that should help him keep things interesting. The pick is Bagautinov by third-round TKO.