Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lewis vs. Hunt’

Connor RuebuschJun 09, 2017

Featherweights
Alexander Volkanovski (14-1) vs. Mizuto Hirota (18-7-2)

THE MATCHUP: Volkanovski is one of the most interesting and unheralded additions the UFC has made to its featherweight division in some time. A bona fide finisher, Volkanovski has nine knockouts and three submissions to his name, and he has only heard the final bell twice in his career. He is a born pressure fighter, a wrestle-boxer who likes to back up his opponent with heavy counters before diving on a leg and dragging the other man into his world: the ground game. On the floor, Volkanovski is a blur of strikes. He likes to sit in half guard and rain down thunderous punches with both hands. Given his tendency to push an insane pace from the outset -- he finished three takedowns and threw 76 strikes in just two minutes against Yusuke Kasuya in November -- Volkanovski seems like a fighter who should struggle down the stretch. He has twice been to the fourth round, however, winning by finish both times, so it would appear he is more than capable of going the three-round distance if need be.

Hirota is not to be taken lightly, however. Do not let the unglamorous record fool you: He has battled a who’s who of internationally renowned fighters, with names like Shinya Aoki, Katsunori Kikuno, Pat Healy, Masakazu Imanari and Cole Miller on his resume. Hirota can struggle with fighters who push the pace, which does not bode well with a dynamo like Volkanovski opposing him, but he has never been finished in 12 years of pro competition. Hirota is a sniping, pot-shotting boxer, but he can seem busier than he is thanks to his feints and flicking jab. Hirota also does a good job of attacking the body with both hands.

Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle of this matchup is Hirota’s wrestling. Though he is probably not quite dynamic enough to take down Volkanovski, he is quite difficult to hold down himself. Volkanovski looks like a top-notch takedown artist, but the numbers quoted above are something of a double-edged sword. If Volkanovski had to take down Kasuya three times in two minutes, then Hirota may indeed be able to stand back up even if the Australian does succeed in putting him on his back. Then again, Volkanovski’s approach is akin to that of Cain Velasquez: He seems to allow his opponents to scramble in order to strike them while they are busy trying to escape.

THE ODDS: Volkanovski (-465), Hirota (+335)

THE PICK: Hirota is undeniably tough, but at 36 years old and with 27 fights under his belt, his best years are almost certainly behind him. Hirota’s counter wrestling is an advantage that most of Volkanovski’s past opponents have not enjoyed, but he has always been hittable and he has never faced a fighter who strikes so aggressively after scoring the initial takedown. Provided Volkanovski does not burn himself out trying to finish Hirota early, he stands a good chance of being the first man to put away the Japanese journeyman. Volkanovski by second-round TKO is the pick.

Last Fights » The Prelims