Featherweights
Bill Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) vs. Alexander Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC)It has been a long regrouping process for Hernandez, but the hope is that he can continue to recapture some of his prospect form coming off his most consistent performance in years. Hernandez was one of the UFC’s breakout stars in 2018, announcing himself with a 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush in his debut, then dominating Olivier Aubin-Mercier to set himself up for a big 2019 run. Instead, Hernandez’s first fight of the year saw him run into Donald Cerrone, who blew open all of the defensive holes in his game and seemingly did some irreparable damage to the psyche of “The Great Ape.” Hernandez’s rebound win over Francisco Trinaldo was an interminable and overly cautious affair, and while things have not gotten quite that dire again, there has been a clear pattern to his fights ever since the Cerrone loss. He can still run over an overmatched opponent but is clearly prone to losing confidence and composure against someone who can survive and stage a comeback. A cut to featherweight in 2022 did not solve those issues—though the UFC did Hernandez a bit dirty in putting him against Billy Quarantillo, an exceedingly durable pressure fighter—but a one-off move back up to lightweight against Jim Miller in February was some cause for optimism. Miller staged a late comeback, but Hernandez spent most of the fight balancing aggression and patience in an effective manner and got a rare decision victory. Now Hernandez looks to prove himself once again opposite Algeo in a bit of a redux of the Quarantillo fight.
“Senor Perfecto” is a fighter who leans on his durability in the hopes of swamping his opponents in offense and outlasting them for a victory. Algeo is the larger fighter—with that said, he almost never utilizes that range advantage—but a worse athlete than Quarantillo, which makes this a much better proof of concept fight for Hernandez at featherweight. While Quarantillo always figured to overwhelm and outlast Hernandez, the Factory X export may have enough of a strength advantage to overpower Algeo in a scramble and stick him to the mat. That is the lean here, even if a lot of this stylistic matchup favors Algeo. Hernandez’s last performance gives just enough hope that he can thread the needle, even if this should be an anxiety-inducing affair for all 15 minutes. The pick is Hernandez via decision.
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Dawson vs. Green
Pyfer vs. Alhassan
Buckley vs. Morono
Dober vs. Glenn
Cutelaba vs. Lins
Algeo vs. Hernandez
The Prelims