Preview: UFC Fight Night 170 ‘Lee vs. Oliveira’

Flyweights

#3 FLW | Jussier Formiga (23-6, -165) vs. #5 FLW | Brandon Moreno (16-5-1, +145): The status of the UFC’s flyweight division is constantly in flux, but for now, it offers another excellent fight between elite 125-pounders. If Joseph Benavidez is the perennial flyweight bridesmaid, then Formiga is the bridesmaid to the bridesmaid. All five of Formiga’s losses inside the Octagon have seen his opponent get a title shot in his next bout. Even at 34 years old, Formiga is as good as ever, rounding out his venomous submission game with enough wrestling and striking to be one of the division’s toughest outs. He will look to defend his home turf here in Brazil against the ascendant Moreno, who looks to finally be rounding into form. Mexico’s Moreno rode a string of upsets into a main-event slot against Sergio Pettis in 2017, but his lack of depth in skill got exposed badly by Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja in back-to-back fights. Moreno has consistently added to his game since, effectively filling in the moments between dynamic bursts of offense; and he looked excellent against Kai Kara-France in December. Moreno is as well-equipped as ever to win this matchup, but it is still difficult not to favor Formiga. Moreno’s aggression and pace could give the Brazilian some issues—particularly since Moreno has added more combinations to his boxing game—but Formiga’s ground attack should serve as a failsafe, even if Moreno can hold his own on the mat. Even though the true breakout for Moreno feels imminent, the pick is Formiga via third-round submission.

Women’s Strawweights

NR | Amanda Ribas (8-1, -320) vs. NR | Randa Markos (10-7-1, +260): Thanks to issues with the United States Anti-Doping Agency, it took Ribas two years to make her UFC debut, but the Brazilian has certainly made up for lost time. Ribas’ pre-UFC career was not anything particularly impressive, as she ran over physically overmatched competition like many before her, but that translated surprisingly well to her UFC debut, where she constantly pressured Emily Whitmire and earned a submission. Even more impressive was her follow-up effort against Mackenzie Dern in October, when Ribas shut down every weapon the much-more-hyped prospect had to offer; add in Ribas’ considerable charm in her post-fight interviews, and the UFC suddenly has a potential star on its hands. She will get a solid test against Markos, who has had a frustratingly inconsistent career since standing out on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2014. Markos can do a lot of different things, but there is no telling what will be clicking on any particular night, and it says a ton that her thirteen UFC fights have seen her alternate wins and losses, save for one draw. If one of the better versions of Markos shows up, there is a decent chance she can control this with her wrestling, given that she will be the first legitimate high-level wrestler Ribas has faced. However, relying on Markos is a fool’s errand. The pick is Ribas via decision.

Welterweights

NR | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (21-6, -135) vs. NR | Alexey Kunchenko (20-1, +115): It looked like 2019 could be a breakout year for Zaleski dos Santos. After losing his debut back in 2015, the Brazilian went on to win every one of his subsequent fights, racking up performance bonuses and accolades in the process. “Capoeira” kicked off 2019 with another win over Curtis Millender, but his situation went sideways in his most recent bout against Jingliang Li—a damaging loss that saw a career-best performance from Li coincide with a terrible performance from Zaleski dos Santos. Now, he is back at Square One, as he looks to rebound against Kunchenko, one of the most frustrating fighters on the UFC roster. On paper, Kunchenko should be an excellent prospect. He is an Alexander Shlemenko protege with excellent power and hand speed who boasted an undefeated record against strong competition prior to his UFC debut. However, the Russian never presses those advantages. His fights typically see him shock his opponent early with his striking, only to coast once the other fighter is too scared to do anything. Gilbert Burns finally took the zero from Kunchenko’s loss column by using his wrestling and pressing the action, and unless the former M-1 Global champion suddenly reinvents his approach, it is difficult not to see something of a repeat happening here. Zaleski dos Santos’ wrestling should not be a factor, but he is nothing if not a wildman and should be able to win rounds solely on volume, even if that volume may not be particularly accurate or effective. The pick is Zaleski dos Santos via decision.

Bantamweights

NR | Enrique Barzola (16-5-1, -170) vs. NR | Rani Yahya (26-10, +150): He has been relevant on the American scene for over a decade and somehow looked his current 35 years of age the entire time, but Yahya remains one of the most underrated fighters on the UFC roster. Yahya’s game is relatively straightforward—he relies on tangling with his opponents on route to finding a submission—but it has been extremely effective. Before losing to Ricky Simon in early 2019, Yahya had won seven of his previous eight fights. For whatever reason, the UFC has never truly gotten behind Yahya; the Simon loss was a result that almost felt inevitable, given the amount of high-risk, low-reward fights the promotion kept throwing Yahya’s way. The Brazilian looks to rebound in another tough fight against an underrated opponent, as Barzola makes his bantamweight debut. Peru’s Barzola was a surprise winner of the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America” and had his own underrated run, winning five of his first six bouts inside the Octagon. After a rough 2019, Barzola decided to cut down to 135 pounds, and it will be interesting to see how his new weight class suits him. That is basically what this fight hinges on. If Barzola’s physical strength carries down a weight class, his wrestling should translate enough to make this a winnable fight, particularly since he has fleshed out his striking game more in the last year-plus. If Barzola just winds up getting drained with the additional 10 pounds to lose, Yahya could make this look easy. The call is for Barzola to stall the best parts of the Brazilian’s offense and earn an ugly decision.

Women’s Flyweights

NR | Mayra Bueno Silva (5-0, -140) vs. NR | Maryna Moroz (9-3, +120): It went under the radar, but Moroz turning things around was a pleasant surprise. After making her UFC debut with a stunning submission win against Joanne Calderwood, the “Iron Lady” had not shown much in her subsequent bouts. Her willingness to throw volume was enough to win fights against the most flawed opponents on the UFC roster, but against anyone decent, she seemed to hit nothing but air. However, in her UFC flyweight debut against Sabina Mazo a year ago, Moroz showed a newfound commitment to power and actually looked sharp, scoring a victory over a highly touted prospect. It has taken a year, but Moroz looks to follow that performance against the undefeated Silva, who makes her own long-awaited return after a successful UFC debut. Silva’s win over Gillian Robertson showed a ton of heart, as the Brazilian tore up her knee on Robertson’s first takedown attempt of the fight but still managed to sink in a fight-winning armbar in the ensuing scramble. This fight should answer some questions about how genuine Moroz’s improvements have been. Mazo was content to keep the fight at range and let Moroz cycle through her options, but Silva is a dedicated pressure fighter who also has submission skills in her back pocket. There is a chance that Moroz crumbles under the pressure and this turns into a blowout win for Silva. With that said, expect Moroz to keep hitting Silva hard as she closes the distance on route to a decision.

Flyweights

NR | Bruno Silva (10-4-2, -120) vs. NR | David Dvorak (17-3, +100): Silva’s signing was a bit surprising. He had a stint on the fourth season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” but did not particularly stand out and had a spotty career over the next few years. In his UFC debut against Khalid Taha in October, he looked competent but relatively nondescript on route to a third-round submission loss. “Bulldog” heads back home to Brazil and drops to flyweight in search of a rebound win against Dvorak. The Czech newcomer should be an interesting addition to the revived flyweight division. He favors a movement-heavy striking game, but he might be at his best hunting for submissions when opponents decide to close range and take him down. There is a chance that Silva can just stall out Dvorak, but this looks like the Octagon rookie’s fight to lose in every phase. The pick is Dvorak via second-round submission.

Women’s Bantamweights

NR | Veronica Macedo (6-3-1, -180) vs. NR | Bea Malecki (3-0, +158): It has been an up-and-down UFC run for Macedo. Signed just months into her pro career, she made her debut as an undersized bantamweight and was subsequently injured for the better part of the next two years. Upon her return at flyweight, Macedo showed some skill in flashes but did not score her first UFC win until her fourth try, as she quickly tapped Polyana Viana in August. Macedo was actually booked for two fights late in 2019—she intended to step in on late notice at flyweight on route to making her strawweight debut in December—but she was pulled from both assignments after showing concussion-like symptoms following a difficult weight cut. She makes a return to bantamweight here. Macedo has an interesting matchup against Malecki, a Swedish muay Thai stylist who remains quite raw but has shown a willingness to go to war in the face of adversity, earning a comeback win against Duda Santana in her June 1 debut. Macedo should win this based purely on skill, particularly since Malecki’s takedown defense is a concern, but the massive size disparity is impossible to ignore. Malecki comes into this fight with a 10-inch reach advantage, for example. Macedo might still be the smarter pick, but the call is for Malecki’s size to eventually overwhelm her and lead to a second-round stoppage.