Preview: UFC Fight Night 160 ‘Hermansson vs. Cannonier’

Welterweights

Alex Oliveira (19-7-1) vs. Nicolas Dalby (17-3-1)

ODDS: Oliveira (-165), Dalby (+145)

It is nice to see Dalby back in the UFC. Highly touted upon his debut, the Danish kickboxer hit the ground running and looked like a future contender, as he scored a narrow win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in Brazil and then turned around and engaged in a three-round war with Darren Till that ended in a draw. Those results have both aged well, but Dalby’s 2016 campaign went so poorly that he found himself out of the promotion, as he offered little against Zak Cummings or Peter Sobotta. Dalby thankfully got himself together, both inside and outside of the cage. After a long layoff, his return against Carlo Pedersoli ended in a narrow loss, but since then, Dalby has gone undefeated in four fights and looked impressive in doing so. While it was a mixed bag in terms of results, respect has to be paid to both Dalby and Ross Houston, as their June 29 war ended when so much blood poured out of the two men that the mat was deemed too unsafe to continue. At any rate, it would be better if Dalby was guaranteed a win here in his UFC comeback, but he does not get an easy return to the Octagon. Oliveira should be a challenging opponent.

Oliveira gained some notoriety early on, mostly thanks to his nickname. Faced with few options for a UFC Fight Night card in early 2016, the promotion decided to give Oliveira a main event slot against Donald Cerrone for seemingly no other reason than to advertise “Cowboy vs. Cowboy.” That was a one-sided loss, but Oliveira eventually rebounded and worked his way up the ranks, though it is difficult to say that he has developed much. Instead, almost everything Oliveira does relies on power. While he has some innate striking skills and some solid submissions, Oliveira is content to either brawl or just bull around his opponent rather than trying to score a win the easy way. No one can argue with his record, but Oliveira does seem to be hitting his ceiling. Even a physically overmatched Gunnar Nelson managed to turn the tide and dominate the Brazilian on the ground, and Mike Perry found a way to outdo Oliveira in a battle of wills.

Dalby’s issue with his first UFC run was an inability to dictate the terms of the fight. In a striking battle, he could hold his own, but the Dane was neither aggressive nor well-rounded enough to take over on someone who was not willing to play his game. On the plus side, that has changed. Dalby is more willing to work his wrestling and clinch as needed and seems to be effective at doing so. However, Oliveira should prove to be a particularly difficult test in that regard. Even if Dalby goes in with the right game plan, the strength and athleticism gap is such that Oliveira should be able to turn things right back around on him, particularly in that grappling realm. Dalby figures to give Oliveira a tough fight for three rounds and there is a chance he breaks what looks like an increasingly mentally breakable “Cowboy,” but it is difficult not to see Oliveira hitting the harder punches of the fight and turning things around whenever Dalby tries to take the fight to the fence or the mat. The pick is Oliveira via decision.

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