Preview: UFC Fight Night 140 ‘Magny vs. Ponzinibbio’

Women’s Strawweights

Cynthia Calvillo (6-1) vs. Poliana Botelho (7-1)

ODDS: Botelho (-135), Calvillo (+115)

Maybe the UFC is finally treating Calvillo like a normal prospect. She was one of the breakout fighters of 2017, partially due to her own talents and partially due to the UFC deciding to give her the big push. Within three UFC bouts and under 11 months into her pro career, Calvillo was in a co-main event slot against Joanne Calderwood. To Calvillo’s credit, she wound up narrowly winning the fight, despite still being somewhat of a one-dimensional grappling specialist. However, the UFC continued to press its luck and rush Calvillo up the ladder, and Carla Esparza proved to be too much of a challenge, earning a decision win over the Team Alpha Male standout at the tail end of 2017. A failed test for marijuana has kept Calvillo out of action for all of 2018, so it will be interesting to see how she bounces back from her first career loss. Despite being overhyped at the start, Calvillo is still an immensely talented prospect to watch.

Calvillo faces Botelho, a Brazilian prospect who still has a lot more questions than answers about her game at the moment. Botelho overwhelmed some physically overmatched opposition on the Brazilian scene, but it remains unclear how everything translates at this level; and her first two UFC fights have not helped. First came an ugly win over Pearl Gonzalez, who was content to clinch with Botelho and do nothing with the position, allowing Botelho to throw more offense and win rounds. Then came a quick knockout win over Syuri Kondo. It is Botelho’s best win to date but also does not tell us a whole lot beyond her ability to overwhelm physically challenged foes. For as much as this fight figures to tell us about Calvillo going forward, it might say even more about where Botelho stands in the strawweight rankings.

Much hinges on Calvillo’s ability to maintain grappling control. Calvillo can sometimes fall in love with her striking -- and she still might be quick enough to successfully use it here -- but the strongest part of her game is obviously when she takes things to the mat. With that said, Botelho is a strong athlete, and while Calvillo might be able to take this to the ground, I do worry about her ability to keep it there. Still, I have faith that Calvillo can get the job done, if only because she is more proven at this stage of her career; and even if this fight stays standing, I have concerns about how Botelho’s aggressive striking plays against better athletes and better-trained fighters, even with her considerable size and reach advantages. The pick is Calvillo via decision.

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