Lightweights

Eddie Alvarez (28-5) vs. Dustin Poirier (21-5): This is a good one. Alvarez was outclassed by Conor McGregor in his first defense of his UFC lightweight title. Without the reach and patience of McGregor, however, Poirier will be a much more forgiving opponent. Poirier has made considerable improvements in the realms of footwork, defense and combination punching since his return to lightweight in 2015. Even so, he will be willing to lead the exchanges in this fight, which will allow Alvarez to do what he does best: stick and move and look for devastating counters. Poirier and Alvarez are both capable wrestlers, and I expect that aspect of this matchup to be a wash. This one will play out on the feet. In that phase, Poirier remains hittable despite his improvements, while Alvarez has always been a tricky, accurate puncher from long range. Poirier throws considerably more than Alvarez, however, and he is undeniably the harder hitter, even if Alvarez does not get enough credit for his knockout punch. Alvarez is a tough man who fights exceptionally well when hurt, but he also gets hurt in just about every fight. Patricky Freire stunned him, Michael Chandler dropped him, Gilbert Melendez wobbled him and McGregor sent him to the canvas a staggering three times in three minutes. Alvarez has the craft and the experience to outsmart Poirier, but getting hit hard early is a dangerous strategy against two of the lightweight division’s heaviest hands. The pick is Poirier by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Chas Skelly (17-2) vs. Jason Knight (16-2): It is easy to forget that Knight is only 24 years old. At that age, talented fighters tend to make rapid improvements. That may explain why Knight, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who grappled his way to a loss in his UFC debut, has suddenly developed a knack for smashing noses and cracking chins, so much so that fans have begun calling the stoic Mississippian “Redneck Diaz.” According to Skelly, however, “There is only room for one redneck in this 145-pound UFC trailer park.” Skelly enjoyed a great deal of hype himself when he made his UFC debut in 2014, and while some of that shine has rubbed off, he remains an excellent fighter. In eight UFC fights, Skelly has only lost twice: a majority decision to elite prospect Mirsad Bektic and a unanimous decision to Darren Elkins, the only man to ever beat Bektic. Both Knight and Skelly are rugged fighters, perfectly willing to eat a shot to land one in return; they are also eager to scramble on the ground. Knight is a dangerous submission artist, but Skelly is a slightly better one, able to threaten and advance from just about any position. On the flipside, Skelly is an underrated if awkward striker with considerable power, but Knight is the cleaner boxer with better combination punching. How this fight plays out will depend on stamina and wrestling. If Knight can stuff Skelly’s takedowns, he will be able to rack up damage and force the massive Texan to tire. If Skelly can complete the takedowns, his strength and superior positional grappling will shine. Either way, this one should be a war. Since we have yet to see Knight shut down the takedowns of a solid wrestler, the pick is Skelly by hard-fought unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Krzysztof Jotko (19-1) vs. David Branch (20-3): Branch returns to the UFC for the first time in over six years, and he comes bearing a collection of belts after a successful run as both middleweight and light heavyweight champion in the World Series of Fighting. Branch may have a difficult time reverting to three-round fights after three years of training only for the championship distance, and that could play to dark horse Jotko’s advantage. Like Branch, Jotko prefers a methodical, controlled pace, using his southpaw striking to set a long distance in order to time his opponents with counters on the way in. Branch is a very strong middleweight who will use his own sharp timing to set up takedowns, but Jotko has proven difficult to take down in the UFC and his strong clinch game and smart scrambling frequently allow him to reverse and end up in top position, where he is capable of doing serious damage with ground-and-pound. Jotko is a surprising takedown artist in his own right, as well, using long punches to set up the body lock, from which he will twist and trip his opponent to the ground. This is an extremely close fight, and Branch’s championship experience means he will likely not experience the dreaded “Octagon jitters.” With that said, his expertise in long fights may allow the slightly more aggressive Jotko to outpoint him, especially in the transitions between wrestling and striking, where the Pole has shown a real knack for landing punishing strikes and gaining dominant position. The pick is Jotko by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Marco Polo Reyes (7-3) vs. James Vick (10-1): Reyes has developed nicely in the UFC. A powerful boxer-puncher, Reyes has improved his defense, footwork and kicking dramatically at Alliance MMA. One of the most impressive aspects of Reyes’ 3-0 UFC run has been in his willingness to accept coaching: Eric Del Fierro has had no difficulty in convincing the Mexican-born slugger to make adjustments from one round to the next. For this fight, however, Reyes has trained at Entram Gym in Mexico in order to be close to his newborn daughter. The outfit boasts an impressive stable of UFC-caliber fighters, but it remains to be seen whether Reyes will perform to the best of his abilities without the calm voice of Del Fierro in his corner. Texas native Vick offers an interesting test for him. Though he is two years younger, Vick has more experience against top-flight opposition. More importantly, he will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage with four more inches of height. Vick is willing to use this length, and though his lofty chin is an available target, he has begun to sharpen up his jab and his footwork, making that target harder and harder to reach. Reyes should at least be able to keep this fight on the feet, thereby avoiding Vick’s dangerous submission game; and so long as he comes out aggressively, he should be able to get past Vick’s reach often enough to do significant damage. It will not be an easy task, but the pick is Reyes by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Jessica Aguilar (19-5) vs. Cortney Casey (6-4): Casey and Aguilar both lost to Claudia Gadelha in their last fights. For Casey, it was Gadelha’s wrestling that prevented her from showing off her developing striking skills. Aguilar, on the other hand, was outworked in a competitive-but-clear effort on the feet. In this matchup, Casey is undeniably the harder hitter, but Aguilar has enough snap on her punches to demand respect. She is also incredibly durable. All of these attributes, however, should only be used in service of the takedown. Aguilar is one of the best wrestlers at strawweight, with good timing and drive on her shots and the scrambling to find a dominant position or return to her feet when they go awry. In fact, it was the fact that Aguilar could not outwrestle Gadelha that made the fight so difficult for her. Casey will not put up the same kind of resistance. Casey is an excellent athlete and dangerous on the feet and on the ground, but Aguilar is tough, experienced and better suited to control the pace and whereabouts of this fight, whether through output or wrestling. Aguilar by unanimous decision is the pick.

Featherweights

Jared Gordon (12-1) vs. Michel Quinones (8-1): If you ever wondered what Rashid Magomedov would look like if he dropped 10 pounds, stopped worrying so much about defense and compensated by adding more aggression and power to his game, then Quinones is right up your alley. Quinones is not young at 32 years old but he has only been competing in MMA since 2011, and his recent competition has been respectable enough to warrant some hype heading into his UFC debut. Opposing him is Gordon, who is both younger and more experienced. Gordon is more accustomed to going the distance, having done so five times in his pro career. On the other hand, Quinones has gotten the finish in all but two of his eight career wins, with one second-round win and five first-round stoppages; that suggests he is the more dangerous fighter, at least in the early going. Quinones is all about the counter right hand and the quick left kick, but Gordon’s bread-and-butter is wrestling. He uses his hands to set up takedowns, and though his initial drive is not always perfect, he chain wrestles very well. On the ground, Gordon stays heavy and does considerably damage with ground and pound. Quinones is the more dynamic fighter and will find opportunities to land in the midst of Gordon’s relentless assaults, but the wrestler with experience in long fights should be able to neutralize him. The pick is Gordon by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Chase Sherman (9-3) vs. Rashad Coulter (8-1): Sherman gets a replacement opponent on short notice after Dmitry Poberezhets was removed from the card for undisclosed reasons. This might sound a little odd, but Sherman reminds me of a young Frankie Edgar. He moves well, kicks better than you might expect and takes a hell of a shot. Like a young Edgar, however, his movement is often excessive and without clear purpose, and he shows off his chin far more than he needs to, because unless he can use his feet to get out of the way, his head is an open target. Sherman does not have Edgar’s wrestling to complement his kickboxing, and he has the misfortune of fighting in a division in which even the hardest chins are routinely cracked. Fortunately for Sherman, Coulter is a more forgiving opponent than Poberezhets and not merely because he enters this fight without the benefit of a full camp. Coulter is a power puncher who likes a relatively close range and tends to stick to boxing. He can work a power takedown game, but Sherman’s longer distance and quick movement should allow him to avoid the clinch. Coulter will have opportunities to clip Sherman, as everyone does, but the latter’s steady output of kicks should allow him to wear down the smaller fighter. Sherman by unanimous decision is the pick.

Featherweights

Gabriel Benitez (19-5) vs. Enrique Barzola (12-3-1): On a card full of elite talent, two dark horses of the featherweight division will almost certainly be overshadowed. Even so, this should be an excellent fight. Barzola has more than exceeded expectations in the UFC, using awkward, broken rhythm and a well-rounded game to outwork his opponents -- helped, of course, by a superb gas tank. Whereas Barzola likes to flit around on the outside, using jittery feints to make his opponents jumpy and tentative, Benitez excels at timing his foes on the way in. Barzola is a tricky kicker, but Benitez has some of the most dangerous legs in the division, and he uses his kicks to rack up points before sniping opponents with his laser-guided left hand. Barzola is also an able wrestler, with the keen eyes and excellent timing necessary to complete shots in open space, but he will have to watch his neck against Benitez, who has finished four opponents via guillotine. The accuracy and power of Benitez should be enough to cancel out Barzola’s activity, which while unpredictable also leaves him open to the counter. Barzola is tough enough to take the shots but not dangerous enough in his own right to overcome them on the scorecards. The pick is Benitez by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Joachim Christensen (14-4) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (19-4): Even the curtain-jerker on this card has relevance. Antigulov is 30 years old, not at all too old to become a contender in the crippled UFC light heavyweight division; and with seven and a half years of pro MMA experience under his belt, he may just now be entering his prime. Antigulov is a submission specialist, with 14 of his 19 wins coming via tapout, but he is no slouch on the feet. He prefers an uber-aggressive attack, launching himself toward his opponent with a thunderous right hand, and shows great skill in turning these assaults into single-legs and clinch takedowns. The approach is something like a supercharged mashup of Cain Velasquez and Fedor Emelianenko. Christensen is a tall fighter who will enjoy a five and a half-inch reach advantage, but his chin can be picked off by fast, aggressive punchers. He is a dangerous counterpuncher, however, and Antigulov will have to watch out for his sneaky right uppercut. On the ground, Christensen’s methodical grappling will have trouble standing up to the powerhouse guard passing and crushing ground-and-pound of Antigulov. The pick is Antigulov by second-round TKO.

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