Preview: UFC 207 ‘Nunes vs. Rousey’

Welterweights

Johny Hendricks (17-5) vs. Neil Magny (18-5): This has been a crazy year, but the featured UFC 207 prelim may conclude one of its most puzzling narratives. Call it the story of “What Became of Johny Hendricks?” A little over two years ago, Hendricks was the UFC champion and claimed, some would say legitimately, to have beaten the best mixed martial artist of all-time. Now, three losses and a countless number of weight issues later, Hendricks is struggling to set his feet back on the path to contention -- and still failing to make weight. Maybe a year ago, it would have made sense for Hendricks to switch to middleweight, but now he looks more and more like a shopworn fighter. Magny also comes into this fight on the heels of a loss, but the career momentum is still firmly in his grasp. Magny has been outrageously active and continually improves his game from one fight to the next. Magny masterfully outgrappled Kelvin Gastelum only three months after losing to Demian Maia. It would not seem strange if he returned to knock out Hendricks just four months after getting stopped by Lorenz Larkin. Magny is susceptible to early offense, but it has been some time since Hendricks believed in his left hand enough to throw it with confidence. Magny will likely grow stronger and stronger as the fight goes on, ultimately even outwrestling the more pedigreed wrestler. The pick is Magny by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Mike Pyle (27-12-1) vs. Alex Garcia (13-3): If Brandon Thatch’s precipitous decline has bordered on the tragic, then Garcia’s UFC career has only been slightly less disappointing. Like Thatch, “The Dominican Nightmare” turned heads when he entered the UFC due to his obvious physical talents. Unfortunately, he has failed to turn those innate advantages into anything like a consistent fighting style. Garcia seems torn between sticking to the strategic blend of wrestling and long-range kickboxing which Firas Zahabi has given him and giving in to his natural instincts to sling bombs with reckless abandon. The result is a fighter who seems too wild and too gunshy by turns. None of this precludes a Garcia win. Pyle’s chin only grows more and more suspect, and Garcia has a few thunderous knockouts and knockdowns on his resume to inspire confidence. Pyle is that sort of dangerous veteran, however, who seems to grow more dangerous after being hurt. Should Pyle survive the early onslaught, Garcia may be left wishing he had never hurt him at all. The pick is Pyle by third-round submission.

Middleweights

Antonio Carlos Jr. (6-2) vs. Marvin Vettori (11-2): There is a lot to like about Vettori. At just 23, Vettori likely has at least a decade of time to continue developing, and he has already displayed phenomenal athletic talents and some solid jiu-jitsu chops, to boot. Unfortunately, all of that essentially makes him a lesser version of Carlos, at least in terms of physical attributes. Carlos is a more decorated grappler, at least as good an athlete and slightly bigger than Vettori; and since Vettori’s striking game is about as undeveloped as the Brazilian’s, the dictator of the ground game will be the winner of this fight. Unless Vettori can pressure and wear out Carlos the way Daniel Kelly did, he will have no choice but to tangle with a bigger, better submission artist. The pick is Carlos by third-round submission.

Welterweights

Brandon Thatch (11-4) vs. Niko Price (8-0): Thatch has had a rough go of it lately. From touted prospect to desperate gatekeeper, Thatch’s three-fight skid has exposed more than a few tragic flaws in the Coloradan’s game. In Price, the UFC seems intent on really measuring Thatch’s worth. Either he loses and gives an exciting slugger a bit of momentum on the biggest stage in MMA, or he wins and earns himself some much-needed breathing room. At his best, Thatch is a phenomenal striker, mixing together punches, kicks and clinch knees with real artistry. Unfortunately, Thatch is so committed to offense that his defensive skills have rusted, both on the feet and on the ground. Price, however, is less experienced than Thatch and every bit as defensively vulnerable, while also being more predictable with his offense. Price does have a grappling game and Thatch has looked all but clueless on the ground in past fights, but the rest of Price’s skill set is not developed enough to take Thatch by surprise. The pick is Thatch by first-round TKO.

Welterweights

Alex Oliveira (16-3-1) vs. Tim Means (26-7-1): Means is a fight fan’s fighter. He always shows up ready to throw down, and while his style is technical rather than wild, he throws tight combinations with deadly accuracy. Aside from a finish, the only thing that can really slow Means’ roll is wrestling. Means is not a bad defensive wrestler and he does have some submission skill from his back, but most of his losses can be attributed to takedowns. Oliveira can compete with Means on the feet, thanks mostly to his tremendous athletic ability, but it would be unwise for the Brazilian to give Means the time he needs to adjust his striking strategy. Instead, Oliveira will likely attempt to grind Means against the fence and drag him to the floor, where his physical strength gives him the advantage. Means is no slouch in the clinch, but Oliveira becomes a serious threat whenever he gets his hands on his opponent. Expect Means to tune up Oliveira a bit on the feet before spending the latter portion of the fight defending shots from his back. Oliveira by unanimous decision is the pick.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.