Preview: UFC 204 ‘Bisping vs. Henderson 2’

Bantamweights

Iuri Alcantara (32-7) vs. Brad Pickett (25-11): Pickett has been a staple of the lighter weights for many years, and his career is coming to an end. “One Punch” actually announced his intentions to retire after his last fight had he not come away with the win, and given the fact that the win was a highly contentious split decision, the prospects are not looking good. In Alcantara, Pickett finds himself faced with yet another heavy-handed striker, with the saving grace that this particular striker has always been somewhat vulnerable to takedowns. Takedowns have been the deciding factor in Pickett’s last two or three wins, and Alcantara has given up at least three takedowns in each of his last three losses. Still, Alcantara is not helpless when put on his back. He does have 12 submission wins on his resume, and he has been more willing to scramble and escape in all of his recent fights. If Pickett cannot control Alcantara on the ground for any extended period of time, then he has little hope of surviving the lanky southpaw’s stabbing kicks and punches. Alcantara by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Ian Entwistle (9-3) vs Rob Font (12-2): Entwistle is Rousimar Palhares without the freakish strength and, it must be said, without the utter contempt for other people’s limbs. Entwistle is almost entirely dependent on his leg lock game, and while it is very good, he has fallen into the habit of desperately holding onto a leg while his opponent beats him up from top position. More flexible would be the approach of grapplers like Chas Skelly and Paul Sass, who are always willing to turn those leg locks into a sweep or follow-up attack. This predictability does not make Font invincible, of course. Entwistle is extremely aggressive, and he has caught some very good opponents off-guard. If Font’s submission defense is not up to par, he will be forced to tap. So long as he can protect his knees and ankles and punish Entwistle for relentlessly attacking them, he has a far more well-rounded skill set on which to fall back; that will allow him to dictate the fight when Entwistle’s favorite trick fails to produce results. Font by second-round TKO is the pick.

Bantamweights

Damian Stasiak (9-3) vs. Davey Grant (10-2): Two and a half years elapsed between Grant’s unsuccessful UFC debut and his most recent fight, but he made a triumphant return with a dominant victory over Marlon Vera in February. In that fight, Grant showed off everything that makes him, as his nickname says, “Dangerous.” He put pressure on Vera, clubbed him with tight combinations in the pocket, mauled him in the clinch and stifled him from top position. That is a skill set Stasiak will struggle to overcome. Stasiak is by and large a grappling specialist. He has secured five of his nine career wins via rear-naked choke, with one triangle mixed in. On the feet, he employs a piecemeal, Karate-based kickboxing style, replete with spinning kicks and long, lunging punches. However, unlike Gunnar Nelson -- the other man to make that style effective -- Stasiak is not an outstanding wrestler. Most of his takedowns occur in the clinch. In addition, he is not as comfortable timing counters and fighting for extended periods at the range for which his striking style is best suited. Grant will make this an ugly, fast-paced fight, and Stasiak has struggled with those in the past. The pick is Grant by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Leon Edwards (11-3) vs. Albert Tumenov (17-3): What a fight. Tumenov made his mark as an excellent transitional striker, but in his last two fights, we have seen him struggle. It was not only Gunnar Nelson’s grappling but his awkward, long-range striking that troubled Tumenov; and Lorenz Larkin made a strong case for the win by chewing up Tumenov’s legs with kicks from distance. So far, the story of Edwards’ career has been the war against wrestlers. This will be the first time in his UFC run that he will have the chance to fight someone who is almost exclusively a striker. Of course, this is modern MMA and the lines are blurry. Tumenov is not above shooting for the occasional takedown, and he knows how to play the threat of that shot into his strikes. Edwards’ mission to improve his defensive wrestling, on the other hand, has seen him score a few impressive takedowns of his own: He spent much of his fight with Dominic Waters in top position. Tumenov seems to struggle when his opponents keep the distance and utilize lateral movement to set up pot-shots. The southpaw Edwards will prefer this type of fight above all others, and, at just 25 years old with only five years of experience, he seems primed to keep improving. Then again, so does Tumenov. This one should be fun. The pick is Edwards by hard-fought unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Danny Roberts (13-1) vs. Mike Perry (8-0): Hyun Gyu Lim was always going to be the kind of opponent that Perry, unseasoned as he was, could beat. For that exact reason, I believe my betting recommendation for that fight was based on whether or not it would last longer than 1.5 rounds and not based on who would win. Roberts is a different animal. “Hot Chocolate” lacks some of Lim’s power, but he makes up for it with skill. With a boxing background, Roberts is far less hittable than Lim and not so determined to exchange that he makes himself vulnerable. In a protracted striking battle, Perry has yet to show that he has much more than heavy hands and good timing. Those traits will make him dangerous, of course, but they will be less effective against a fighter with good movement, economical punches and an understanding of distance control. Roberts by second-round TKO is the pick.

Lightweights

Leonardo Santos (15-3-1) vs. Adriano Martins (28-7): For much of his MMA career, Santos has looked like the Brazilian jiu-jitsu stylist he actually is. His most recent performance was arguably his most impressive, however, in part because it involved virtually no grappling. Santos not only knocked out Kevin Lee but plainly outstruck him, notching just the second such win of his career. Santos showed the Nova Uniao muay Thai that has been missing from his game thus far, working smartly behind a flicking jab and long kicks before sitting down Lee with a picture-perfect counter right. That same approach could very well work against Martins, but Santos has only just recently looked comfortable trading blows. Meanwhile Martins, despite being two years younger, has 16 more fights under his belt and 13 wins by knockout. Like Santos, Martins is a decorated grappler, but he is more physically powerful, difficult to takedown and difficult to stop when he goes for the shot himself. That power translates on the feet, as well. Santos is not entirely out of his depth here and he could surprise us again, but the pick is Martins by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Lukasz Sajewski (13-2) vs. Marc Diakiese (9-0): Diakiese probably is not thanking his lucky stars that Reza Madadi pulled out, but maybe he should be. Short-notice replacement Sajewski is scramble-happy and scrappy just like Madadi, but he lacks the Swede’s experience and top-notch takedown skills. Diakiese gained renown by scoring two first-round knockouts recently, winning his last two fights in a minute combined. He is however a willing grappler, pretty slick when it comes to level changing off of strikes and a relentless, grinding takedown artist against the fence. Diakiese’s inexperience leads him to make some fairly egregious positional mistakes, but he is quite athletic and almost always works his way back on top by round’s end. Still, those mistakes might have cost Diakiese the fight against Madadi. Sajewski, on short notice, is simply more forgiving. The pick is Diakiese by unanimous decision.

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