Preview: UFC 199 ‘Rockhold vs. Bisping 2’

Featherweights

Brian Ortega (10-0) vs. Clay Guida (32-16): Ortega is an exciting young prospect with a potentially unsustainable style. He is willing to fight off of his back and concerned only with getting the finish -- no-nos in the modern meta-game of MMA. Still, he is really good at it. Ortega is defensively vulnerable on the feet, both as a striker and a wrestler, but he happily answers offense with offense. Ortega views the takedown as an opportunity to play his guard game. Long of limb, Ortega plays a fast and loose guard game, eschewing control in favor of aggression. That means he struggles to keep people on the ground, but he is exceptionally dangerous to anyone who agrees to grapple. Guida can scrap on the feet, but he rarely wins except for when he wrestles his opponent, and that focus on wrestling has gotten him in trouble numerous times throughout his career against dangerous submission artists: Roger Huerta, Kenny Florian, Dennis Bermudez and most recently Thiago Tavares have all tapped “The Carpenter.” Expect Ortega to do the same. Ortega wins by submission in round two.

Lightweights

Beneil Dariush (12-2) vs. James Vick (9-0): At 27 and with six and a half years of experience under his belt, Dariush is fast leaving “prospect” territory, but that did not stop him from falling prey to the specialty of RNC king Michael Chiesa in his last bout. Like Chiesa, Vick has earned a reputation as a perpetual tough out and a bona fide prospect killer, to boot. Both Dariush and Vick are capable out-fighters on the feet. Dariush is the more technical of the two, his balanced footwork carrying him around the cage behind a stinging jab. Still, Vick is game and quite clever. He is hittable early on in most fights, but he quickly adapts and finds the openings in his opponent’s game. Dariush could not resist wrestling in his last fight, and though not as technically savvy as Chiesa, Vick will keep Dariush on his toes on the ground, as well as on the feet. The matchup favors Dariush’s consistent, technical approach to MMA, but Vick is nobody’s fool, and Dariush will have to fight a near-perfect fight to ensure his victory. The pick is Dariush by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Jessica Penne (12-3) vs. Jessica Andrade (13-5): Andrade was small for a bantamweight, but the two-division drop to strawweight should give her a respectable size advantage in this matchup. Penne is three inches taller but also competed at 105 pounds before her UFC debut. Expect Andrade to look like the much thicker fighter in the Octagon. Andrade is a swarmer; she likes to come in low, throwing crooked punches with both hands. When her assault sends her into the clinch, Andrade is happy to hammer away at the body or wrap up a quick guillotine if the opponent changes levels. Andrade’s stocky frame also makes her a natural wrestler. On the ground, however, the advantage is Penne’s. Seven of Penne’s 12 wins have come via submission. She can be somewhat reckless, but she is dangerous in scrambles and working either from top position or guard. Penne lacks Andrade’s powerful wrestling, but her array of judo throws should counter Andrade’s aggression nicely, and “Bate Estaca” may find her usual pace difficult to maintain after the significant weight cut. Unless Andrade can score an early knockout -- that is a tall order -- Penne should be able to drag this fight to the floor and wrap up the Brazilian. The pick is Penne by third-round submission.

Featherweights

Cole Miller (21-9) vs. Alex Caceres (11-8): It is the battle of the replacements in this cobbled-together featherweight action fight. Caceres has had some considerable struggles, going just 1-3 in the last two years, but he entered his most recent fight with something of a renewed focus on footwork and kicking, which helped him to make the most of his long, tall frame. Defensively, “Bruce Leeroy” is still lacking. He tends to come forward with his head centered and both hands committed and exits the same way, often in straight lines. Miller is not superior on that front, but he understands much better how to manage and maintain distance, using his stiff jab and a pair of gut-wrenching front kicks to keep the opponent at bay and punish him on the way in. Grappling is Miller’s forte, of course, with 15 of his 21 wins coming via submission. Caceres is a capable scrambler and a dangerous opportunist, but Miller is just too experienced and too slick on the floor. Look for him to knock down Caceres and follow him to the ground for the choke. Miller wins by submission in round two.

Welterweights

Sean Strickland (17-1) vs. Tom Breese (10-0): Consistency could be the determining factor in this battle of young welterweight prospects. Strickland finds himself on the wrong side of that factor. The 25 year-old is a sharp boxer-puncher, capable of picking his shots from the outside or dropping hammers in the pocket, but he has struggled to maintain a consistent output in the UFC, especially in his bout with the swarming Santiago Ponzinibbio. Breese, on the other hand, fights like clockwork. Though his victory over Keita Nakamura was not as dominant as most expected, Breese was utterly composed while grappling with a 13-year veteran with 17 submissions to his credit. With long arms and the wherewithal to use them, Strickland should test Breese in the striking the way Nakamura did on the ground. Expect Breese to pass this test as confidently as he did the last. Breese’s wrestling and submission game will be there for him if things get too hot on the feet, but he should be able to find the chinks in Strickland’s armor when the former King of the Cage champion takes his foot off the gas. Breese by unanimous decision is the pick.

Light Heavyweights

Jonathan Wilson (7-0) vs. Luis Henrique da Silva (10-0): Wilson is an offensive dynamo, to a fault. The undefeated fighter’s record looks better on the surface than it is in reality, with his knockout win over career middleweight Chris Dempsey being his first victory against an opponent with a winning record. Untested as he is, Wilson has promising traits for a light heavyweight. He is light on his feet and possesses fast hands, which he is willing to throw in combinations, using these to set up powerful low kicks. Da Silva’s record is no better, but a knockout win over UFC vet Ildemar Alcantara in January speaks well of his potential. Where Wilson is too focused on offense, da Silva is downright reckless, wading through punches and slinging his heavy left hand over and over until the opponent goes away. His durability and grit will give him an edge if this fight goes past the first round, but da Silva is just too wide open defensively -- both as a striker and a wrestler -- to survive that long. The pick is Wilson by first-round KO.

Middleweights

Kevin Casey (9-4) vs. Elvis Mutapcic (15-4): Casey’s UFC career is a difficult one to parse. He is a destructive force in the early stages of any fight, with crushing power and capable jiu-jitsu. As the fight wears on, however, Casey invariably wilts. Whether low on stamina or hurting from the strikes of the opponent, Casey does not deal well with adversity. That will be his downfall against Mutapcic here. Mutapcic struggled with the size and power of Francimar Barroso in his UFC debut, but back down at middleweight, he should be able to match the physicality of Casey. Mutapcic possesses deft head movement and sharp counterpunching, though his tendency to wait on the opponent makes him more hittable than he should be. He is also a capable wrestler, both offensively and defensively, and should be able to decide where this fight takes place -- at least long enough for Casey to falter. Mutapcic by third-round TKO is the pick.

Lightweights

Marco Polo Reyes (5-2) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (13-7-3): Non-stop action fighters meet in this tantalizing curtain-jerker. Reyes impressed in his UFC debut against Cezar Arzamendia, scoring a knockout in a bout that not only showed off his impressive combination punching but his ability to blend together all phases of mixed martial arts. Reyes’ takedown defense needs work, but he is a capable scrambler who fights calmly but quickly out of bad spots. He should not need those scrambling skills against Kim. With 11 finishes to his name, “Maestro” Kim fights just like his welterweight namesake -- except without the judo and jiu-jitsu. Kim is a brawler willing to engage wherever his opponent wants him to. There is some craft to Kim’s striking, as he will switch stances and counter his opponent’s aggression. He is defensively lacking, however, and Reyes should be able to find his chin. Reyes may even shoot a few takedowns to take advantage of Kim’s underdeveloped ground game. The pick is Reyes by second-round TKO.