Preview: PFL 3 ‘Aubin-Mercier vs. Burgos’

Welterweights

Sadibou Sy (13-6-2, 7-4-2 PFL | -170) vs. Jarrah Al-Silawi (18-4, 1-1 PFL | +140): A part of the PFL roster since 2018, Sy put it all together for a run to the welterweight championship in 2022. The 36-year-old Swede had an up-and-down tenure prior to that point, but his size and skill set is such that he is competitive in the vast majority of his fights. At this point, Sy is well-known as a tactical fighter who prefers to counter and controls the range with his jab and an arsenal of kicks. His defensive wrestling has improved significantly in recent years, so that has made him even more proficient at keeping fights on his terms. Outside of a couple early knockouts on his PFL resume, Sy’s style keeps him in a lot of close fights, and occasionally, a lack of activity has come back to haunt him on the scorecards. Obviously, that was not the case in 2022. In Al-Silawi, Sy is not likely going to have to use his takedown defense much, if at all. The former Brave Combat Federation two-division champion is a skilled striker with good dexterity who will throw kicks and knees liberally. He did not get to show much in his last outing—a first-round KO loss to Magomed Umalatov—but his ability to remain upright or return to his feet was key in a split decision victory against UFC veteran Gleison Tibau in his PFL debut. This matchup has the looks of tactical striking battle where offense could come at a premium. It will be up to Al-Silawi to force the issue against the defending champ, which includes navigating an eight-inch reach deficit. Al-Silawi was not especially active prior to being finished by Umalatov, so this feels like Sy’s type of fight. Sy wins another closely contested decision.

Welterweights

Magomed Magomedkerimov (30-6, 12-1 PFL | -900) vs. Ben Egli (14-4, 0-0 PFL | +600): The 2018 PFL champion, Magomedkerimov is a nightmare matchup for virtually anyone in the welterweight field. The Dagestani is a disciplined striker with technical boxing and good movement. Though he will not take too many chances in exchanges, he does possess power in his overhand right. Magomedkerimov is at his best when he closes the distance, where he can grind away with takedowns and clinch work. The American Top Team product is methodical and suffocating from top position, where he will look for ground-and-pound and submission openings without taking risks. Egli is a 35-year-old submission specialist who has finished 12 of his career triumphs via tapout. A jiu-jitsu black belt with a wrestling background and experience on the Submission Underground grappling circuit, Egli is as crafty as one might expect on the canvas. However, he has come up short against the best competition he has faced—Nick Browne and Mark Lemminger—in his MMA career, which has prevented him from having a breakthrough on the big stage. Unfortunately for him, Magomedkerimov is not the type of opponent who will leave many openings to allow him to change that narrative. Magomedkerimov by decision.

Lightweights

Natan Schulte (23-5-1, 12-2-1 PFL | -360) vs. Steven Ray (25-11, 2-2 PFL | +285): A two-time PFL champion, Schulte enjoyed a productive 2022 campaign with victories over Jeremy Stephens and Marcin Held, but his bid for the postseason was derailed by a split decision loss to eventual lightweight champion Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his first bout of the season. The Brazilian judoka remains a difficult out at 155 pounds thanks to a relentless approach backed by consistent forward pressure, a deep gas tank and grueling clinch work. His striking is competent enough to allow him to get to his preferred range, and he is capable of hindering his opponent’s movement with solid leg kicks. After a retirement that lasted more than two years, Ray made it to the 2022 final thanks to a pair of victories over Anthony Pettis, one of which ended up being Sherdog’s “Submission of the Year.” While the name value is lacking by comparison, Schulte is a far more difficult assignment than a faded version of Pettis. Ray is not threatening enough as a striker to give Schulte pause, and while the Scot is good in the clinch, his counterpart will be more than willing to battle in that area, looking to ground him with a variety of trips, sweeps and throws. Ray is undoubtedly resourceful, and his best chance at victory might arise thanks to his willingness to take chances on the canvas through scrambles and submission attempts. A more likely outcome, however, is that Schulte wears him down ahead of a decision or submission triumph.

Lightweights

Alex Martinez (10-3, 3-3 PFL | -155) vs. Raush Manfio (16-4, 5-1 PFL | +125): Manfio appeared primed to follow up on his 2021 PFL championship when he rallied for a third-round TKO victory over Dan Madge in his first bout of 2022, but he was unable to get anything going against eventual 155-pound winner Olivier Aubin-Mercier in his next outing. The Madge victory aside, Manfio is not known as a finisher, but he is well-conditioned with a well-rounded standup arsenal and active clinch game. Martinez does not own a gaudy PFL mark, but he has been battle-tested during his tenure, with matchups against the likes of Clay Collard, Loik Radzhabov, Steven Ray and Natan Schulte. The Paraguay native is comfortable in all aspects of MMA and transitions well between the phases. The balanced skill set allows him to shift gears if a fight is not going his way, but like Manfio, he has not proven to be a dynamic finisher at the upper levels. That means he relies on winning close decisions, and if an opponent is clearly better in one area, it could mean the scorecards will go against Martinez. This seems like a fairly even matchup, but Manfio should be able to distinguish himself on pressure and pace to pull away for a decision.

Welterweights

Nayib Lopez Miranda (15-0, 0-0 PFL | -225) vs. Shane Mitchell (13-4, 0-0 PFL | +185): More than four years ago, Mitchell was billed by some Australian news outlets as someone on the verge of signing a UFC contract. That clearly did not work out, and the Cardio-Flex Gym export will be making his first appearance in nearly a year and a half. The Aussie is a proven finisher, with 12 of his 13 victories on the regional scene coming inside the distance. Mexico City’s Miranda is a former Lux Fight League titleholder and the rangier fighter at 6-foot-3 compared to his opponent’s 5-foot-9. Both Mitchell and Miranda have resumes littered with victories over journeyman, so there is a little bit of the unknown heading into this matchup. Look for the more highly touted Mitchell to get the job done inside the distance.

Lightweights

Bruno Miranda (14-3, 0-0 PFL | -165) vs. Ahmed Amir (12-3-1, 0-0 PFL | +135): After nearly three years on the sidelines, Miranda made a successful return to action with a third-round technical knockout victory against Carson Frei on the PFL Challenger Series in 2022. Despite missing weight ahead of that bout, the performance was enough to earn the Brazilian a PFL contract. Anchored at Tiger Muay Thai, Miranda possesses solid striking skills that have led to nine career triumphs via KO or TKO. Egypt’s Amir is a former Brave Combat Federation lightweight champion who went the full 25 minutes to claim that crown against Amin Ayoub in September 2021. Amir has not fought since then, so ring rust could be an issue here. Miranda wins by KO/TKO.

Welterweights

Brandon Jenkins (16-9, 1-0 PFL | -140) vs. Zach Juusola (13-9, 0-0 PFL | +110): Jenkins returns to the PFL following a two-bout UFC stint in which he was overwhelmed by Zhug Rong and Drakkar Klose in back-to-back outings. Though his moniker is “The Highlight” and his record is littered with spectacular finishes—including a flying knee KO of Jacob Kilburn in his PFL debut—Jenkins is also prone to periods of inactivity. This can allow Jenkins’ opponents to impose their will if they opt for an aggressive approach. Juusola entered the PFL Challenger Series earlier this year having lost six of his last seven professional outings, but he was able to pull off an upset against Jozef Wittner behind a solid jab, takedowns and ground-and-pound. There is a chance that an aggressive approach early could allow Jussuola to pull off another surprise here, but his track record suggests that another Jenkins highlight is more likely. Jenkins by KO/TKO.