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FIGHT ODDS

UFC Fight Night ‘Jacare vs. Mousasi 2’ Preview

Patrick WymanSep 03, 2014
Charles Oliveira will enter the cage on a two-fight winning streak. | Photo: Corey Boland /Sherdog.com


Featherweights

Charles Oliveira (18-4, 6-4 UFC) vs. Nik Lentz (25-6-2, 9-3-1 UFC)

Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Lentz is 4-1 at 145 pounds.
The Matchup: Two veteran featherweights meet once more after their first fight -- a fun, back-and-forth affair contested at lightweight -- ended in a no-contest more than three years ago. While Lentz and Oliveira are obviously talented fighters with the skills to succeed in the UFC, neither has been able to break through to the elite tier of the division, and a win here will mean big fights in the future for the victor.

There is no denying Oliveira’s athleticism and raw talent. He is incredibly dangerous and capable of finishing in any phase, with a technically sound and complete muay Thai game featuring hard kicks and punching combinations at range. In the clinch, Oliveira throws vicious knees and elbows that he integrates with a sneaky arsenal of trips and throws. On the ground, however, Oliveira really shines, having finished all six of his UFC victories by submission. He is one of the most dynamic and venomous grapplers in all of MMA, with an almost indescribably tricky guard, ultra-quick hips and outstanding instincts in transition. There are very few fighters who can survive for long on the mat with Oliveira.

Lentz features a much more workmanlike game. His Division 1 wrestling is his bread and butter, but he is also a surprisingly sound grappler with a heavy base from top position, a great feel for transitions and the confidence in his scrambling ability to consistently try for submissions. As Lentz has evolved over the years, he has also complemented his wrestling and infighting skills with a serviceable if not particularly dynamic striking arsenal. The fact that the Minnesotan pushes a punishing pace makes the rest of his game infinitely more effective.

Betting Odds: Oliveira (-170), Lentz (+140)

The Pick: Lentz is game and durable, and if their first meeting is any predictor, he will be perfectly willing to engage Oliveira in every phase. Unfortunately for “The Carnie,” Oliveira is no less dangerous now than he was three years ago; if anything, the betting odds are giving Lentz a bit more of a shot than I would. In fact, Oliveira is substantially more dynamic, especially at range and as a wrestler, than he was at the time of their first fight. While Lentz will survive and even have some success in the transitions early in the fight, I think Oliveira locks up a submission in the second round.

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